Tabular Foundation Models in Financial Predictions

원문 초록

This technical note introduces tabular foundation models (TFMs) to accounting research and evaluates their performance in one common benchmark task: predicting firms' next-year earnings changes. TFMs produce numeric predictions and learn in context, without post-release training or tuning, making them natural and easy to use for forecasting. The TFMs we study are pretrained on synthetic tabular data, so they avoid look-ahead bias from memorizing firms' outcomes. We compare Google Research's TabFM with a fine-tuned open-weight large language model developed in recent accounting research and with several tree-based models. TabFM is more accurate than all comparison models. It is also faster and less computationally intensive than the large language model. Several tree-based specifications produce predictions more quickly than TabFM, so choosing between them involves a trade-off between accuracy and speed. We conclude that TFMs have promise as a new tool for forecasting in accounting and finance. However, our evaluation is based on a single benchmark task, and no class of models is likely to dominate in all settings.