Certify, Report, or Refuse: Harm-Constrained Conformal Prediction for Clinical Actions

원문 초록

Routing a melanoma case to routine follow-up is a serious action error that diagnostic coverage alone does not rule out. We present Harm-Constrained Risk-Optimal Conformal Prediction (HC-ROCP), a training-free framework that uses frozen classifier probabilities and adds a harm penalty when choosing prediction sets and actions. We test the resulting policies on disjoint calibration splits with multiplicity adjustment. HC-ROCP certifies supported claims, reports descriptive fallback policies, and refuses unsupported subgroup claims. We evaluate these outputs retrospectively on COVID-19 radiographs, ISIC 2019 dermoscopy, and EyePACS-to-APTOS retinopathy transfer. Across ten calibration seeds, HC-ROCP reduces COVID-19 severe-action errors from the exact risk-optimal baseline's 4.68\% to 0.54\%. At a 5\% budget, global claims are certified for COVID-19 and ISIC, but the rare squamous-cell-carcinoma claim is refused. At 1\%, all settings receive descriptive reports. For each budget, we also report the minimum severe-case count needed to pass the global harm gate with zero errors, providing a starting point for further data collection.