Can the Confidence and Decisions of System 1 Models Be Trusted? An Explainability and Perturbation Audit of Jev-Style Decision Models

원문 초록

"System 1" decision models (pioneered by TypeSafe AI's Jev) replace autoregressive text generation with a single forward pass returning typed probability distributions over declared schemas (Choice, Score, Noul). While deployed for low-latency routing and automated triage, their statistical calibration and post-hoc explainability remain uncharacterized. We introduce an open, deterministic audit benchmark evaluating System 1 decision models across calibration under label-preserving perturbations, cross-question interference, and post-hoc attribution faithfulness. Evaluating five open-weight models (0.8B to 27B) alongside generative System 2 baselines -- both single-token logprob scoring and structured JSON/CoT decoding -- across NLI (e-SNLI), adversarial syntactic shortcuts (HANS), synthetic clinical triage (N=900), prompt injection defense (Tensor Trust, N=250), and an 86-case logic-gate trigger suite yields five findings: (1) provider confidence is an exact closed-form dispersion transform (1 - H(p)/ln K on sub-10B models; normalized margin on Clef-27B) rather than empirical accuracy; (2) bundling multiple questions in one request induces directional cross-question interference (11.7% to 22.4% binary flips on Tev1-0.8B, vs. 0.1% to 0.2% on Tev1-4B); (3) System 1 models with >= 4B parameters are faster and better calibrated under syntactic shifts (ECE_w = 0.030 to 0.087) than logprob (0.144) and JSON (0.378) baselines; (4) for prompt-injection defense (N=250), >= 4B models achieve 0.988 to 0.998 AUROC with up to 95.2% recall and 0.0% false alarms at 48 to 60 ms; and (5) single-pass inference makes 512-coalition XAI interactive (1.3 to 3.2 s/input), while KernelSHAP with a logit link (S1-SHAP) mitigates softmax saturation on disjunctive OR gates (89.3% to 100.0% gate recovery vs. 57.1% to 82.1% in prob space; p_adj = 0.004).