Odds-Structured Distributional Regression for Interpretable Time-to-Event Prediction

원문 초록

Time-to-event prediction is fundamentally challenged by partial observability and aleatoric uncertainty. In clinical medicine, for instance, the timing of disease progression or acute readmission is contingent on highly dynamic and largely latent health trajectories. Rather than forcing a deterministic point forecast, distributional regression offers a principled means to address this complexity by predicting a probability distribution over time. However, explaining these distributional predictions presents a key obstacle: raw distribution parameters output by the model are abstract mathematical quantities that do not align well with domain concepts. To gain interpretability, we propose a novel paradigm where output parameters are designed to be additive in log-odds---a widely established measure in clinical risk modeling. Our approach, called ODDS-DR, moves beyond technical convenience to deliver clear domain alignment as well as the layer-wise computational structure required for robust, time-dependent feature attribution. Validated across two real-world clinical cohorts, our framework matches state-of-the-art predictive performance while resolving distributional outputs into interpretable risk markers across flexible prognostic horizons.