Perils and opportunities of AI for public climate services

원문 초록

The rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative and machine-learning systems, in climate services development and provision is transforming how climate information is produced, accessed, and interpreted. AI-enabled climate services offer significant opportunities for process automation, optimisation, tailoring, and the translation of complex climate data into actionable knowledge for diverse users. However, the growing reliance on privately controlled algorithms, data infrastructures, and computing facilities raises critical concerns related to governance, transparency, equity and economic sustainability, among others. While the technical architecture of climate services increasingly relies on advanced machine learning and large-scale climate models, their legitimacy as public services may be weakened in the absence of arrangements that prioritise public value and long-lasting societal benefit over profit maximisation. The tension between the public mandate of climate services and the private nature of AI infrastructure challenges traditional notions of openness. Using a consensus-based elicitation method coupled with the PESTLE framework, we analyse the political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental risks and opportunities shaping the co-production value chain of AI-enabled climate services. We draw policy-relevant conclusions for data, model and infrastructure supporting the next generation of upstream and downstream climate services as critical applications for society. Our work presents potential and plausible challenges and benefits for a pan-European, decentralised public climate service built on sovereign AI infrastructure and open governance principles.