Conformal Prediction for Multi-Step Forecasting: Conditional Coverage and Sharp Score Calibration Rates

원문 초록

Uncertainty quantification in prediction is a central problem in statistics and machine learning. Conformal prediction provides a flexible approach to constructing prediction sets with valid marginal coverage under exchangeability. In this paper, we investigate conformal prediction for both one-step and multi-step forecasting from a single stationary time series, addressing temporal dependence and the additional challenges of joint prediction across multiple horizons. We propose a kernel-based framework, called Time series Residual Analysis for Calibration with Kernels (TRACK), for estimating conditional quantiles of residual scores and constructing prediction sets from rolling-window forecasters. The framework accommodates heterogeneous uncertainty across horizons and accounts for dependence induced by rolling estimation, while allowing predictor memory and forecast horizons to grow with the sample size. Our finite-sample bounds quantify how temporal dependence and overlapping score windows affect calibration and coverage. We further derive bounds for conditional quantile estimation and pointwise conditional coverage discrepancy. The guarantees extend to more general predictors that admit an accurate rolling-window approximation. We also derive matching minimax bounds over classes of known score maps, clarifying how overlapping score windows affect calibration accuracy. Experimental results from simulations and applications to wind energy generation and bike sharing demand show that our methods improve regional conditional coverage while maintaining competitive interval widths.