Beyond Prediction Residuals: Conformal Regret Calibration for Robust Contextual Linear Optimization

원문 초록

Predict-then-optimize systems convert contextual forecasts into decisions, yet conformal robust optimization typically calibrates prediction residuals rather than downstream loss. For linear optimization, this parameter-space geometry can be badly misaligned with decision risk: large objective perturbations may preserve the optimizer, while small boundary-crossing perturbations may cause substantial regret. We introduce Conformal Regret Sets, a post-hoc, model-agnostic framework that conformalizes an optimization-derived regret surrogate and uses its calibrated level set for minimax-regret refinement. We first show that directly conformalizing exact regret, although sufficient to certify the nominal predict-then-optimize decision, yields a degenerate robust problem: absent an exogenous bounded support, every alternative decision has unbounded worst-case regret. We therefore use SPO+, a pointwise upper bound on exact regret, as the conformal score, obtaining distribution-free finite-sample marginal regret guarantees under exchangeability. For contextual linear programs, the resulting set decomposes into polyhedral pieces aligned with the normal fan of the feasible polytope. A vertex is active if and only if its predicted suboptimality gap is at most half the calibrated threshold $\eta$, enabling local, output-sensitive generation of all relevant pieces. Moreover, if $\Gamma$ is the predicted gap to the closest competing vertex, the nominal and refined decisions admit the sharper worst-case-regret certificate $(\eta-2\Gamma)_+$, with an exact early exit when $\eta\leq 2\Gamma$. Experiments on contextual fractional knapsack validate the geometry and certificates: continuous refinement reduces the $0.95$-quantile and $\operatorname{CVaR}_{0.95}$ of regret by $9.1\%$ and $13.1\%$ relative to nominal PTO, while vertex-restricted refinement changes only $10.0\%$ of nominal decisions.