Decision Aware Origin-Destination Demand Estimation with Structurally Constrained Data

원문 초록

Origin-destination (OD) demand plays an important role in transportation system design and management applications. Conventional OD estimation methods typically judge estimation quality based on how estimated demand aligns with observed traffic data and historical demand patterns. We argue that data alignment alone is insufficient; how errors in OD estimates influence downstream decision quality should also be considered. This paper develops a decision aware OD demand estimation framework that leverages structurally constrained traffic data to characterize an admissible demand region, within which we identify OD estimates that would lead to least regret in the downstream decision. Therefore, our OD estimates are both data-consistent and decision-relevant. Methodologically, we approximate the admissible demand region induced by physical network constraints through a geometric representation, which regularizes the search over feasible OD estimates. Within this regularized region, we use a convex surrogate of downstream regret to obtain a tractable decision aware optimization problem. Numerical experiments show that the proposed framework consistently reduces decision regret relative to conventional estimation benchmarks, demonstrating the value of aligning OD demand estimation with downstream decision quality.