Means vs. Foundation Models for Emergency Call Forecasting

원문 초록

This study investigates whether generalized means can achieve forecasting performance comparable to that of TimeGPT for daily emergency call volume prediction. Specifically, two families of generalized means, the H\"older means (HM) and the Lehmer means (LM), are evaluated against fine-tuned TimeGPT across forecasting horizons ranging from one to seven days. Forecasting performance is assessed on a real-world emergency call dataset using multiple error metrics, and Diebold-Mariano test. Experimental results show that HM and LM achieve nearly identical predictive performance across all forecasting horizons. For short-term forecasting, both generalized means outperform TimeGPT, with reductions of mean absolute error (MAE) approximately 1.24\% and 2.48\% at horizons of one and three days, respectively. Conversely, TimeGPT achieves a lower error at the seven-day horizon, with an descresing of MAE by 1.98\%. However, Diebold-Mariano tests reveal no statistically significant differences between the methods at the evaluated horizons. These findings suggest that generalized means can provide competitive forecasting performance compared with a energyvore foundation model.