Learning through Capacity Awareness to Minimize Hospital Readmissions

원문 초록

Predictive algorithms are increasingly used to guide hospital discharge decisions, yet these models can exhibit censoring bias for vulnerable patients due to insufficient historical data or past discharge decisions. When biased readmission risk predictors are used to inform discharges, the training data generated by discharge decisions may perpetuate similar biases when predictors are re-trained, leading to a vicious cycle. We extend a queueing-based Markov decision process for hospital discharge to incorporate periodically retrained readmission risk predictors. Our key insight is that cost-optimal, "capacity-aware" operational decision policies can naturally diversify the lengths of stay at which patient outcomes are observed, enabling consistent estimation of readmission risk without explicit fairness constraints. We prove that repeated retraining under discharge-up-to policies converges to unbiased risk estimates under well-specification. In synthetic experiments and calibrated simulations based on patient-level data from a partner hospital, we find that where commonly used threshold-on-risk policies can remain persistently biased, discharge-up-to policies reduce learning error over status quo decision policies (such as thresholding on risk) by 24%-25%. These improvements to estimation also mitigate some forms of bias, reducing readmission cost disparities (adjusted for baseline risk differences between demographic groups) by 38%-63%. Our results demonstrate how capacity-aware decision policies can improve both predictive performance and fairness by addressing censoring bias.