Trained, Frozen, or Absent: Identifying What a Quantum Layer Contributes to Cross-Sectional Equity Ranking

원문 초록

Hybrid quantumclassical models are increasingly proposed for nancial prediction, but reported gains are rarely separated from the classical components around them. We study a hybrid quantum temporal convolutional network for daily cross-sectional ranking of 2000 Tokyo Stock Exchange equities under a protocol built to make the quantum contribution identiable: six conditions (circuit trained, frozen or absent, a parameter-matched classical surrogate, and the circuit alone, trained or frozen) through one code path; four walk-forward folds with ve seeds; bootstrap intervals, Deated Sharpe Ratios, backtest-overtting probabilities and family-wise error control; ve classical baselines including a gradient-boosted tree; and a locked holdout. On 500 out-of-sample days two one-sided tests place the trained-versus-frozen dierence inside 0.03 annualised Sharpe (p = 0.0055, minimum detectable eect 0.02): the circuit is equivalent to a frozen one, not merely indistinguishable from it. With the circuit as the head's only input the two are equivalent inside 0.25; against the network with no circuit the design resolves only 0.50. No condition is distinguishable from zero (best De-ated Sharpe Ratio 0.17). The holdout reproduces the ablation on a protable window, and 2000 US equities reproduce it where every condition loses money.