Structural Conditional Independence Test via Neural Quantile Resolution

원문 초록

Conditional independence testing is difficult when dependence is weak, localized, or expressed through distributional changes rather than a global mean shift. Existing tests usually return a scalar statistic or p-value, which can detect rejection but gives limited resolution about where the conditional law changes. We propose QRCIT, a quantile-resolution conditional independence test that compares P(X | Z) and P(X | Y, Z) through an amortized quantile deformation. A lightweight residual quantile-flow model first learns the baseline conditional quantile law and then learns the additional deformation induced by Y, yielding both a calibrated global test statistic and an inspectable deformation field over context and quantile level. We also introduce the Structural Dependency Benchmark (SDB), which evaluates real-world-inspired dependence structures, such as context-local, tail-only, sign-reversing, moving-ridge, and mean-neutral patterns. Across synthetic PNL and SDB benchmarks, QRCIT improves detection of structured alternatives while maintaining empirical Type-I control. Increasing quantile resolution consistently improves merged-SDB power, and the local-rescue strategy sharpens detection when dependence is concentrated in structural regions. On Sachs, METABRIC breast cancer, and CCLE/PLX4720, QRCIT provides competitive real-data performance and interpretable deformation patterns. These results support quantile-resolved conditional-law deformation as a practical framework for testing and diagnosing structured conditional dependence.