Behavioral Prior Elicitation via LLM for Heterogeneous-Agent Bitcoin Flash-Crash Simulation

원문 초록

Bitcoin perpetual futures trade continuously with shallow liquidity and high price impact, making them prone to millisecond-scale flash crashes. Agent-based limit order book simulators are a natural tool for studying such events, but their behavioral parameters are usually hand-crafted or require full order book histories that are rarely available at scale. We propose a four-stage pipeline that constructs a reproducible 100 ms BTCUSDT flash-crash event panel from 66 detected events, elicits behavioral priors for four agent archetypes using an offline large language model conditioned on empirical microstructure anchors, instantiates a heterogeneous limit order book simulator with the validated priors, and applies causal discovery plus counterfactual analysis to the resulting synthetic panel. Across 500 simulation runs, LLM-elicited priors produce a crash rate of 0.176 versus 0.008 under uninformative uniform priors and generate heav- ier return tails. In the frozen counterfactual analysis, reducing leverage amplification by one within-sample standard deviation lowers the predicted crash rate from 0.176 to 0.136, whereas reducing directional pressure yields only a marginal change. These find- ings suggest that empirically anchored LLM elicitation can improve simulator fidelity and help identify plausible crash-amplification mechanisms in a controlled synthetic environment