Inferring missing locations in human mobility data using memory effects

원문 초록

Empirical datasets used to characterize human mobility are sparse in space and time, owing to technological factors such as coverage and battery, or to the erratic nature of online interactions. Missing data can bias the conclusions drawn from them, so filling the gaps in incomplete timelines is a key challenge in computational social science. Here, we propose a simple imputation method in which the informativeness of an observation decays with its bidirectional temporal distance from the missing entry, at a rate set by a single parameter per individual. On synthetic and real Twitter data, a power-law decay, selected by Bayesian model comparison, yields accurate imputations (macro-AUROC above 0.9 overall, and above 0.8 for the most mobile users) and matches a gap-aware continuous-time Markov chain, outperforming it among the most mobile users. The method is robust to moderate noise and generalizes across countries and European administrative regions.