Causal-prior-constrained deep learning for rapid-intensification warning of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

원문 초록

Rapid intensification (RI) is one of the most dangerous and unpredictable phases of tropical cyclones, and its environmental and structural drivers are difficult to identify and separate in observations. Here we introduce CausalVisionRI, a causal-prior-constrained deep-learning system for 24-h RI warning in the western North Pacific. It integrates infrared remote sensing imagery, atmospheric and oceanic fields, and an observationally discovered causal graph into a unified model. The graph and eight sign-verified effects on 24-h intensity change provide an auditable causal prior for training. Discovered from 522 cyclones in 2000-2017, it identifies causal pathways linking atmospheric and oceanic conditions, the cyclone's dynamical and structural state, and its 24-h intensity change. On a forward holdout covering 2020-2024 and 3,004 records, the five-member ensemble achieves a Brier skill score (BSS) of 0.259 relative to a fixed development climatology, significantly exceeding four reference systems; the three LDA baselines reach at most 0.105. It also attains higher detection rates than a published knowledge-block scheme and a reconstructed contrastive-learning scheme at matched false-detection rates under our USA 30-kt standard and the published RITCF standard. Ablations show that the graph pathway adds 0.032 BSS across the holdout and 0.063 over 2020-2021, with a significant contribution in one ensemble member. A deep-learning model constrained by observationally discovered causal structure thus offers a new route to physically informed RI warning.