Generative sequence modeling for infinite memory processes via predictive states

원문 초록

We consider estimating the one-step-ahead conditional distribution of a multivariate stochastic process. Many existing approaches rely on assumptions such as finite-range memory, sparsity, or additivity, which can be poorly suited to processes with long-range nonlinear interactions. However, without such structural assumptions, nonparametric estimation is challenging due to the curse of dimensionality. To address this challenge, we introduce a new estimator based on learning representations of the \emph{predictive states} of a stochastic process. We show that the statistical complexity of the estimation problem is determined by the dimension of this predictive state representation. Furthermore, we show that a $p$-dimensional predictive state space can be represented in a $2p+1$-dimensional feature space. Our results imply that faster convergence rates are achievable when the predictive state space is lower-dimensional, i.e., when the past history can be compressed into a lower-dimensional statistic that is sufficient for predicting the future. We establish theoretical convergence rate guarantees for an instantiation of our method based on deep neural network estimators. We implement our method in PyTorch and evaluate its performance on processes with infinite-range memory.