GraphToolbox: A Configurable Framework for Controlled Benchmarking of Graph Neural Network Forecasting

원문 초록

Electricity forecasting often involves spatially related signals observed over regions, substations, and feeders, and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) represent these relations through a graph. Building a complete GNN forecasting experiment is nonetheless laborious, because graph construction, model selection, training, aggregation, and interpretation often require separate tools. We present GraphToolbox, an open-source Python framework that unifies these stages in one configuration-driven pipeline built on PyTorch Geometric. It offers data-driven graph construction, a single interface for most graph convolution operators of PyTorch Geometric and for recurrent graph cells, online expert aggregation, forecasting interpretability, and significance testing on forecasts. We use GraphToolbox to run a controlled benchmark: we compare architectural and modeling choices for French electricity load and net-load forecasting at regional and national levels under a common experimental protocol. On load, most evaluated graph convolutions outperform additive, recurrent, and foundation-model baselines. Pooled XGBoost, trained on the same inputs, has a lower RMSE than the best graph models, although the difference is not significant. Online expert aggregation and daily model updates improve accuracy further. On net-load, graph models outperform additive, recurrent, and XGBoost baselines, with further gains from forecasting the physical components separately. Statistical tests do not identify a single best convolution for load forecasting.