Amortized Opacity Marginalization Improves C/O Interval Calibration for Brown-Dwarf Retrievals

원문 초록

Molecular line lists disagree at a level that measurably shifts retrieved C/O, so retrievals conditioned on a single list omit a dominant systematic from their error bars. Classical marginalization re-runs a full retrieval under K opacity realizations per object. We move that cost into simulation: while generating the training set we randomize opacities (smooth multiplicative Fourier fields in log(nu) plus a discrete line-list mixture, under a deliberately broad prior informed by measured inter-list differences), so a neural posterior estimator learns an already-marginalized posterior. On perturbed held-out spectra (n=2048) a standard NPE covers nominal 90% C/O intervals 43.3% of the time against 82.4% for a compute-matched marginalized network; three-seed control ensembles reach 93.2% on clean data but 61.4% under perturbation, against 89.4% marginalized, isolating the deficit as opacity-induced (TARP joint expected-coverage deviation 0.005 against 0.035 for a single control network). An axis ablation traces the gain to the continuous field (45.4% for the discrete swaps alone, 79.3% for the field alone). In simulation, real JWST bad-pixel masks with median filling cut the marginalized ensemble's C/O coverage from 0.894 to 0.683; an ensemble retrained with mask augmentation holds 0.918 under the full deployment preprocessing (n=1024). We apply the networks to one pipeline-combined JWST/NIRSpec G395H spectrum each of 14 late-T and Y dwarfs. The recommended mask-augmented ensemble returns C/O medians between 0.24 and 0.62 and contains the Hood et al. (2024) value of 0.53 for the T8 benchmark 2MASS J0415-0935, which every fixed-opacity control network excludes. With 90% intervals spanning about 0.43 of the prior width, this is a consistency check, not a validation.