Community HydroAgent: Formalizing Forecaster Expertise into Skill-Orchestrated Flood Forecasting Workflows

원문 초록

Operational flood forecasting depends on tacit forecaster expertise that is difficult to formalize, audit, and transfer. Although artificial intelligence methods have advanced flood prediction and model-error correction, few studies explicitly represent the tacit expert rules, review checkpoints, and workflow constraints that connect model outputs to operational warning decisions. Here, we propose Community HydroAgent for Flood Forecasting (CHA-Flood), a skill-orchestrated agent framework that embeds Large Language Models (LLMs) into a model-driven flood forecasting workflow, where each skill encodes explicit rules to bound LLM reasoning. We validated its effectiveness using five state-of-the-art LLMs in the South Yamhill River basin (USA). Prior judgment captures observed peak flow and flood volume within 5% tolerance in 10 and 11 out of 14 events, and 5-fold cross-validation over 129 events yields Pearson correlations of 0.62 and 0.84. Building on a high-baseline scheme library (average KGE 0.890), the guided scheme selection further improves KGE by 0.023-0.154. All five tested LLMs successfully execute the CHA-Flood workflow with comparable judgment accuracy (each spanning 40%-80% across cross-validation folds) but with substantial cost differences. Removing only the language-model narrowing lowers median KGE from 0.723-0.753 to 0.662 for all five LLMs, indicating that the gain comes from LLM reasoning rather than from the choice of LLM. CHA-Flood does not aim to replace human forecasters; instead, it translates their tacit expertise into an auditable and reproducible workflow. This skill-orchestrated paradigm demonstrates how explicit rule boundaries can guide LLM reasoning to complement physically based simulation in next-generation flood forecasting.