PRIM: Meta-Learned Bayesian Root Cause Analysis

원문 초록

Root Cause Analysis (RCA) aims to identify the main drivers of anomalies in complex multivariate systems. The task is challenging due to the need for structural causal knowledge for some methods, and the computational cost of inference at test time. This paper introduces PRIM (Prior-fitted Root cause Identification with Meta-learning), a causal meta-learning approach that frames RCA as a Bayesian inference task over a prior of causal models. By marginalising out structural uncertainty, PRIM detects changes in the data-generating mechanism between normal and anomalous periods, infers distributional differences without explicit statistical testing, and implicitly learns causal structure without model fitting at test time. Following the simulation-based meta-learning paradigm of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), PRIM uses a transformer neural process (TNP) that jointly attends over normal and anomalous samples and the structural dependencies of nodes, enabling fast zero-shot inference in systems with up to 100 variables. Across synthetic benchmarks and two realistic benchmark datasets, PetShop and CausRCA, PRIM is competitive with other graph-free methods.