Language models lack systematicity in generating and updating hypotheses

원문 초록

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to complex problems, from automated code debugging to science itself. Such problems require generating plausible hypotheses from sparse, noisy, and ambiguous data and updating them as more information arrives. Yet how closely LLMs approach optimal inductive reasoning remains unclear. We study this question in the classic number game, in which a learner infers a concept from a few ambiguous positive integers: $\{2, 16, 4, 8\}$, for example, is explained both by ``powers of 2'' and by ``numbers up to 20.'' We probe the concepts LLMs hypothesize from the observed examples and use their behavioral patterns to understand how they generate and update hypotheses. We measure the LLM posterior over hypotheses in three tasks (prediction, evaluation, and generation) and compare LLM behavior with a Bayesian model and with humans. LLMs favor narrower hypotheses than humans and show a robust evaluation--generation gap: in evaluation they select hypotheses more consistent with the observed examples, whereas in generation they propose narrower hypotheses that are more often rules. They also update poorly: as examples accumulate, their accuracy declines while their confidence grows. Thinking reduces, and can even reverse, the gap; it also broadens the hypotheses LLMs favor, raising accuracy while lowering confidence. Whereas prior studies have shown that LLMs are good hypothesis proposers, our results and further comparisons with the Bayesian model show that LLM inductive reasoning lacks coherence across the three tasks, suggesting that LLMs do not maintain a stable representation shared across tasks that make the same demand. Our results highlight a limitation of LLMs in inductive inference, particularly in settings such as science, where hypotheses must go beyond the data.