Causal Representation Learning from Multimodal Clinical Records under Non-Random Modality Missingness

원문 초록

Clinical notes contain rich patient information, such as diagnoses or medications, making them valuable for patient representation learning. Recent advances in large language models have further improved the ability to extract meaningful representations from clinical texts. However, clinical notes are often missing. For example, in our MIMIC-IV cohort, 35.15% of patients have no eligible discharge summaries. In such cases, representations can be learned from other modalities such as structured data, chest X-rays, or radiology reports. Yet the availability of these modalities is influenced by clinical decision-making and varies across patients, potentially producing modality missing-not-at-random (MMNAR) patterns. We propose a causal representation learning framework that leverages observed data and informative missingness in multimodal clinical records. It consists of: (1) an MMNAR-aware modality fusion component that integrates structured data, imaging, and text while conditioning on missingness patterns to capture patient health and clinician-driven assignment; (2) a modality reconstruction component with latent alignment to preserve modality information in the learned representation; and (3) a multitask outcome prediction model with a rectifier that corrects for residual bias from specific modality observation patterns. Comprehensive evaluations across MIMIC-IV and eICU show consistent gains over the strongest baselines, achieving relative AUC improvements of up to 4.3% for hospital readmission and 2.7% for ICU admission.