Use of Topological Data Analysis for the Detection of Phenomenological Bifurcations in Stochastic Epidemiological Models

원문 초록

We investigate predictions of stochastic compartmental models on the severity of disease outbreaks. The models we consider are the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) for bacterial infections, and the Susceptible -Infected-Removed (SIR) for airborne diseases. Stochasticity enters the compartmental models as random fluctuations of the contact rate, to account for uncertainties in the disease spread. We consider three types of noise to model the random fluctuations: the Gaussian white and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noises, and the logarithmic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (logOU). The advantages of logOU noise are its positivity and its ability to model the presence of superspreaders. We utilize homological bifurcation plots from Topological Data Analysis to automatically determine the shape of the long-time distributions of the number of infected for the SIS, and removed for the SIR model, over a range of basic reproduction numbers and relative noise intensities. LogOU noise results in distributions that stay close to the endemic deterministic equilibrium even for high noise intensities. For low reproduction rates and increasing intensity, the distribution peak shifts towards zero, that is, disease eradication, for all three noises; for logOU noise the shift is the slowest. Our study underlines the sensitivity of model predictions to the type of noise considered in contact rate.