A Behaviour and Disease Model of Testing and Isolation

원문 초록

There has been interest in the interactions between infectious disease dynamics and behaviour for most of the history of mathematical epidemiology. This has included consideration of which mathematical models best capture each phenomenon, as well as their interaction, but typically in a manner that is agnostic to the exact behaviour in question. Here, we investigate interacting behaviour and disease dynamics specifically related to behaviours around testing and isolation. This epidemiological-behavioural interaction is of particular interest as, prospectively, it is well-placed to be informed by real-world data temporally monitoring test results and compliance with testing policy. To carry out our investigation we extend an existing "behaviour and disease" (BaD) model by incorporating the dynamics of symptomatic testing and isolation. We provide a dynamical systems analysis of the ordinary differential equations that define this model, providing theoretical results on its behaviour early in a new outbreak (particularly its basic reproduction number) and endemicity of the system (its steady states and associated stability criteria). We then supplement these findings with a numerical analysis to inform how temporal and cumulative outbreak metrics depend on the model parameter values for epidemic and endemic regimes. As the presented interdisciplinary modelling approach can accommodate further extensions (including, but not limited to, adding testing capacity, decay in behavioural effects and multiple pathogen variants), we hope that our work will encourage further modelling studies integrating specific measured behaviours and disease dynamics that may reduce the health and economic impacts of future epidemics.