Two-stage hybrid models for enhancing forecasting accuracy on heterogeneous time series

원문 초록

Compared to local models built in a series-by-series manner, global models leverage relevant information across time series, resulting in improved forecasting performance and generalization capacity. Constructing global models on a set of time series is becoming mainstream in the field of time series forecasting. However, the advantages of global models may not always be realized when dealing with heterogeneous data. While they can adapt to heterogeneous datasets by increasing the model complexity, the model cannot be infinitely complex due to the finite sample size, which poses challenges for the application of global models. Additionally, determining whether the time series data is homogeneous or heterogeneous can be ambiguous in practice. To address these research gaps, this paper argues that the heterogeneity of the data should be defined by the global model used, and for each series, the portion not modelled by the global model represents heterogeneity. It further proposes two-stage hybrid models, which include a second stage to identify and model heterogeneous patterns. In this second stage, we can estimate either all local models or sub-global models across different domains divided based on heterogeneity. Experiments on four open datasets reveal that the proposed methods significantly outperform five existing models, indicating they contribute to fully unleash the potential of global models on heterogeneous datasets.