Refined climatologies of future precipitation over High Mountain Asia using probabilistic ensemble learning

원문 초록

High Mountain Asia holds the largest concentration of frozen water outside the polar regions, serving as a crucial water source for more than 1.9 billion people. In the face of climate change, precipitation represents the largest source of uncertainty for hydrological modelling in this area. Future precipitation predictions remain challenging due to complex orography, lack of in situ hydrological observations, and limitations in climate model resolution and parametrisation for this region. To address the uncertainty posed by these challenges, climate models are often aggregated into multi-model ensembles. While multi-model ensembles are known to improve the predictive accuracy and analysis of future climate projections, consensus regarding how models are aggregated is lacking. In this study, we propose a probabilistic machine learning framework to combine 13 regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) over High Mountain Asia. Our approach accounts for seasonal and spatial biases within the models, enabling the prediction of more faithful precipitation distributions. The framework is validated against gridded historical precipitation data and is used to generate projections for the near future (2036$\unicode{x2013}$2065) and far future (2066$\unicode{x2013}$2095) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.