Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks for Time Series Granger Causality Inference

원문 초록

We introduce Granger Causality Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (GCKAN), an innovative architecture that extends the recently proposed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) to the domain of causal inference. By extracting base weights from KAN layers and incorporating the sparsity-inducing penalty along with ridge regularization, GCKAN infers the Granger causality from time series while enabling automatic time lag selection. Additionally, we propose an algorithm leveraging time-reversed Granger causality to enhance inference accuracy. The algorithm compares prediction and sparse-inducing losses derived from the original and time-reversed series, automatically selecting the casual relationship with the higher score or integrating the results to mitigate spurious connectivities. Comprehensive experiments conducted on Lorenz-96, gene regulatory networks, fMRI BOLD signals, and VAR datasets demonstrate that the proposed model achieves competitive performance to state-of-the-art methods in inferring Granger causality from nonlinear, high-dimensional, and limited-sample time series.