Timer-XL: Long-Context Transformers for Unified Time Series Forecasting

원문 초록

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous time series. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on multiple time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches), and is further enhanced by deftly designed position embeddings for the temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. Based on large-scale pre-training, Timer-XL also demonstrates notable zero-shot performance, making it a promising architecture for large time series models.