Modelling the age distribution of longevity leaders

원문 초록

Human longevity leaders with remarkably long lifespan play a crucial role in the advancement of longevity research. In this paper, we propose a stochastic model to describe the evolution of the age of the oldest person in the world by a Markov process, in which we assume that the births of the individuals follow a Poisson process with increasing intensity, lifespans of individuals are independent and can be characterized by a gamma-Gompertz distribution with time-dependent parameters. We utilize a dataset of the world's oldest person title holders since 1955, and we compute the maximum likelihood estimate for the parameters iteratively by numerical integration. Based on our preliminary estimates, the model provides a good fit to the data and shows that the age of the oldest person alive increases over time in the future. The estimated parameters enable us to describe the distribution of the age of the record holder process at a future time point.