Dealing with idiosyncratic cross-correlation when constructing confidence regions for PC factors

원문 초록

In this paper, we propose a computationally simple estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the Principal Components (PC) factors valid in the presence of cross-correlated idiosyncratic components. The proposed estimator of the asymptotic Mean Square Error (MSE) of PC factors is based on adaptive thresholding the sample covariances of the id iosyncratic residuals with the threshold based on their individual variances. We compare the nite sample performance of condence regions for the PC factors obtained using the proposed asymptotic MSE with those of available extant asymptotic and bootstrap regions and show that the former beats all alternative procedures for a wide variety of idiosyncratic cross-correlation structures.