Towards Asimov's Psychohistory: Harnessing Topological Data Analysis, Artificial Intelligence and Social Media data to Forecast Societal Trends

원문 초록

In the age of big data and advanced computational methods, the prediction of large-scale social behaviors, reminiscent of Isaac Asimov's fictional science of Psychohistory, is becoming increasingly feasible. This paper consists of a theoretical exploration of the integration of computational power and mathematical frameworks, particularly through Topological Data Analysis (TDA) (Carlsson, Vejdemo-Johansson, 2022) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), to forecast societal trends through social media data analysis. By examining social media as a reflective surface of collective human behavior through the systematic behaviorist approach (Glenn, et al., 2016), I argue that these tools provide unprecedented clarity into the dynamics of large communities. This study dialogues with Asimov's work, drawing parallels between his visionary concepts and contemporary methodologies, illustrating how modern computational techniques can uncover patterns and predict shifts in social behavior, contributing to the emerging field of digital sociology -- or even, Psychohistory itself.