Optimizing accuracy and diversity: a multi-task approach to forecast combinations

원문 초록

Forecast combination involves using multiple forecasts to create a single, more accurate prediction. Recently, feature-based forecasting has been employed to either select the most appropriate forecasting models or to optimize the weights of their combination. In this paper, we present a multi-task optimization paradigm that focuses on solving both problems simultaneously and enriches current operational research approaches to forecasting. In essence, it incorporates an additional learning and optimization task into the standard feature-based forecasting approach, focusing on the identification of an optimal set of forecasting methods. During the training phase, an optimization model with linear constraints and quadratic objective function is employed to identify accurate and diverse methods for each time series. Moreover, within the training phase, a neural network is used to learn the behavior of that optimization model. Once training is completed the candidate set of methods is identified using the network. The proposed approach elicits the essential role of diversity in feature-based forecasting and highlights the interplay between model combination and model selection when optimizing forecasting ensembles. Experimental results on a large set of series from the M4 competition dataset show that our proposal enhances point forecast accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.