An Interpretable Deep-Learning Framework for Predicting Hospital Readmissions From Electronic Health Records

원문 초록

With the increasing availability of patients' data, modern medicine is shifting towards prospective healthcare. Electronic health records contain a variety of information useful for clinical patient description and can be exploited for the construction of predictive models, given that similar medical histories will likely lead to similar progressions. One example is unplanned hospital readmission prediction, an essential task for reducing hospital costs and improving patient health. Despite predictive models showing very good performances especially with deep-learning models, they are often criticized for the poor interpretability of their results, a fundamental characteristic in the medical field, where incorrect predictions might have serious consequences for the patient health. In this paper we propose a novel, interpretable deep-learning framework for predicting unplanned hospital readmissions, supported by NLP findings on word embeddings and by neural-network models (ConvLSTM) for better handling temporal data. We validate our system on the two predictive tasks of hospital readmission within 30 and 180 days, using real-world data. In addition, we introduce and test a model-dependent technique to make the representation of results easily interpretable by the medical staff. Our solution achieves better performances compared to traditional models based on machine learning, while providing at the same time more interpretable results.