Anytime-valid t-tests and confidence sequences for Gaussian means with unknown variance

원문 초록

In 1976, Lai constructed a nontrivial confidence sequence for the mean $\mu$ of a Gaussian distribution with unknown variance $\sigma^2$. Curiously, he employed both an improper (right Haar) mixture over $\sigma$ and an improper (flat) mixture over $\mu$. Here, we elaborate carefully on the details of his construction, which use generalized nonintegrable martingales and an extended Ville's inequality. While this does yield a sequential t-test, it does not yield an "e-process" (due to the nonintegrability of his martingale). In this paper, we develop two new e-processes and confidence sequences for the same setting: one is a test martingale in a reduced filtration, while the other is an e-process in the canonical data filtration. These are respectively obtained by swapping Lai's flat mixture for a Gaussian mixture, and swapping the right Haar mixture over $\sigma$ with the maximum likelihood estimate under the null, as done in universal inference. We also analyze the width of resulting confidence sequences, which have a curious polynomial dependence on the error probability $\alpha$ that we prove to be not only unavoidable, but (for universal inference) even better than the classical fixed-sample t-test. Numerical experiments are provided along the way to compare and contrast the various approaches, including some recent suboptimal ones.