Odd period cycles and ergodic properties in price dynamics for an exchange economy

원문 초록

In the first part of this paper (Sections 1-4), we study a standard exchange economy model with Cobb-Douglas type consumers and give a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an odd period cycle in the Walras-Samuelson (tatonnement) price adjustment process. We also give a sufficient condition for a price to be eventually attracted to a chaotic region. In the second part (Sections 5 and 6), we investigate ergodic properties of the price dynamics showing that the existence of chaos is not necessarily bad. (The future is still predictable on average.) Moreover, supported by a celebrated work of Avila et al. (Invent. Math., 2003), we conduct a sensitivity analysis to investigate a relationship between the ergodic sum (of prices) and the speed of price adjustment. We believe that our methods in this paper can be used to analyse many other chaotic economic models.