E-detectors: a nonparametric framework for sequential change detection

원문 초록

Sequential change detection is a classical problem with a variety of applications. However, the majority of prior work has been parametric, for example, focusing on exponential families. We develop a fundamentally new and general framework for sequential change detection when the pre- and post-change distributions are nonparametrically specified (and thus composite). Our procedures come with clean, nonasymptotic bounds on the average run length (frequency of false alarms). In certain nonparametric cases (like sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential), we also provide near-optimal bounds on the detection delay following a changepoint. The primary technical tool that we introduce is called an \emph{e-detector}, which is composed of sums of e-processes -- a fundamental generalization of nonnegative supermartingales -- that are started at consecutive times. We first introduce simple Shiryaev-Roberts and CUSUM-style e-detectors, and then show how to design their mixtures in order to achieve both statistical and computational efficiency. Our e-detector framework can be instantiated to recover classical likelihood-based procedures for parametric problems, as well as yielding the first change detection method for many nonparametric problems. As a running example, we tackle the problem of detecting changes in the mean of a bounded random variable without i.i.d. assumptions, with an application to tracking the performance of a basketball team over multiple seasons.