Complete dimensional collapse in the continuum limit of a delayed SEIQR network model with separable distributed infectivity

원문 초록

We take up a recently proposed compartmental SEIQR model with delays, ignore loss of immunity in the context of a fast pandemic, extend the model to a network structured on infectivity, and consider the continuum limit of the same with a simple separable interaction model for the infectivities $\beta$. Numerical simulations show that the evolving dynamics of the network is effectively captured by a single scalar function of time, regardless of the distribution of $\beta$ in the population. The continuum limit of the network model allows a simple derivation of the simpler model, which is a single scalar delay differential equation (DDE), wherein the variation in $\beta$ appears through an integral closely related to the moment generating function of $u=\sqrt{\beta}$. If the first few moments of $u$ exist, the governing DDE can be expanded in a series that shows a direct correspondence with the original compartmental DDE with a single $\beta$. Even otherwise, the new scalar DDE can be solved using either numerical integration over $u$ at each time step, or with the analytical integral if available in some useful form. Our work provides a new academic example of complete dimensional collapse, ties up an underlying continuum model for a pandemic with a simpler-seeming compartmental model, and will hopefully lead to new analysis of continuum models for epidemics.