Predicting Future Shanghai Stock Market Price using ANN in the Period 21-Sep-2016 to 11-Oct-2016

원문 초록

Predicting the prices of stocks at any stock market remains a quest for many investors and researchers. Those who trade at the stock market tend to use technical, fundamental or time series analysis in their predictions. These methods usually guide on trends and not the exact likely prices. It is for this reason that Artificial Intelligence systems, such as Artificial Neural Network, that is feedforward multi-layer perceptron with error backpropagation, can be used for such predictions. A difficulty in neural network application is the determination of suitable network parameters. A previous research by the author already determined the network parameters as 5:21:21:1 with 80% training data or 4-year of training data as a good enough model for stock prediction. This model has been put to the test in predicting selected Shanghai Stock Exchange stocks in the future period of 21-Sep-2016 to 11-Oct-2016, about one week after the publication of these predictions. The research aims at confirming that simple neural network systems can be quite powerful in typical stock market predictions.