Matrix decomposition is a popular and fundamental approach in machine learning and data mining. It has been successfully applied into various fields. Most matrix decomposition methods focus on decomposing a data matrix from one single source. However, it is common that data are from different sources with heterogeneous noise. A few of matrix decomposition methods have been extended for such multi-view data integration and pattern discovery. While only few methods were designed to consider the heterogeneity of noise in such multi-view data for data integration explicitly. To this end, we propose a joint matrix decomposition framework (BJMD), which models the heterogeneity of noise by Gaussian distribution in a Bayesian framework. We develop two algorithms to solve this model: one is a variational Bayesian inference algorithm, which makes full use of the posterior distribution; and another is a maximum a posterior algorithm, which is more scalable and can be easily paralleled. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that BJMD considering the heterogeneity of noise is superior or competitive to the state-of-the-art methods.
The mean field variational Bayes method is becoming increasingly popular in statistics and machine learning. Its iterative Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference algorithm has been widely applied to large scale Bayesian inference. See Blei et al. (2017) for a recent comprehensive review. Despite the popularity of the mean field method there exist remarkably little fundamental theoretical justifications. To the best of our knowledge, the iterative algorithm has never been investigated for any high dimensional and complex model. In this paper, we study the mean field method for community detection under the Stochastic Block Model. For an iterative Batch Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference algorithm, we show that it has a linear convergence rate and converges to the minimax rate within $\log n$ iterations. This complements the results of Bickel et al. (2013) which studied the global minimum of the mean field variational Bayes and obtained asymptotic normal estimation of global model parameters. In addition, we obtain similar optimality results for Gibbs sampling and an iterative procedure to calculate maximum likelihood estimation, which can be of independent interest.
Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from complicated high-dimensional posterior distributions. The key point for the successful application of the Gibbs sampler is the ability to draw efficiently samples from the full-conditional probability density functions. Since in the general case this is not possible, in order to speed up the convergence of the chain, it is required to generate auxiliary samples whose information is eventually disregarded. In this work, we show that these auxiliary samples can be recycled within the Gibbs estimators, improving their efficiency with no extra cost. This novel scheme arises naturally after pointing out the relationship between the standard Gibbs sampler and the chain rule used for sampling purposes. Numerical simulations involving simple and real inference problems confirm the excellent performance of the proposed scheme in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. In particular we give empirical evidence of performance in a toy example, inference of Gaussian processes hyperparameters, and learning dependence graphs through regression.
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference in the family of probabilistic models implicitly defined by stochastic generative models of data. In scientific fields ranging from population biology to cosmology, low-level mechanistic components are composed to create complex generative models. These models lead to intractable likelihoods and are typically non-differentiable, which poses challenges for traditional approaches to inference. We extend previous work in "inference compilation", which combines universal probabilistic programming and deep learning methods, to large-scale scientific simulators, and introduce a C++ based probabilistic programming library called CPProb. We successfully use CPProb to interface with SHERPA, a large code-base used in particle physics. Here we describe the technical innovations realized and planned for this library.
We consider the inverse Ising problem, i.e. the inference of network couplings from observed spin trajectories for a model with continuous time Glauber dynamics. By introducing two sets of auxiliary latent random variables we render the likelihood into a form, which allows for simple iterative inference algorithms with analytical updates. The variables are: (1) Poisson variables to linearise an exponential term which is typical for point process likelihoods and (2) P\'olya-Gamma variables, which make the likelihood quadratic in the coupling parameters. Using the augmented likelihood, we derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimate of network parameters. Using a third set of latent variables we extend the EM algorithm to sparse couplings via L1 regularization. Finally, we develop an efficient approximate Bayesian inference algorithm using a variational approach. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on data simulated from an Ising model. For data which are simulated from a more biologically plausible network with spiking neurons, we show that the Ising model captures well the low order statistics of the data and how the Ising couplings are related to the underlying synaptic structure of the simulated network.
The article addresses a long-standing open problem on the justification of using variational Bayes methods for parameter estimation. We provide general conditions for obtaining optimal risk bounds for point estimates acquired from mean-field variational Bayesian inference. The conditions pertain to the existence of certain test functions for the distance metric on the parameter space and minimal assumptions on the prior. A general recipe for verification of the conditions is outlined which is broadly applicable to existing Bayesian models with or without latent variables. As illustrations, specific applications to Latent Dirichlet Allocation and Gaussian mixture models are discussed.
Nonlinear registration of 2D histological sections with corresponding slices of MRI data is a critical step of 3D histology reconstruction. This task is difficult due to the large differences in image contrast and resolution, as well as the complex nonrigid distortions produced when sectioning the sample and mounting it on the glass slide. It has been shown in brain MRI registration that better spatial alignment across modalities can be obtained by synthesizing one modality from the other and then using intra-modality registration metrics, rather than by using mutual information (MI) as metric. However, such an approach typically requires a database of aligned images from the two modalities, which is very difficult to obtain for histology/MRI. Here, we overcome this limitation with a probabilistic method that simultaneously solves for registration and synthesis directly on the target images, without any training data. In our model, the MRI slice is assumed to be a contrast-warped, spatially deformed version of the histological section. We use approximate Bayesian inference to iteratively refine the probabilistic estimate of the synthesis and the registration, while accounting for each other's uncertainty. Moreover, manually placed landmarks can be seamlessly integrated in the framework for increased performance. Experiments on a synthetic dataset show that, compared with MI, the proposed method makes it possible to use a much more flexible deformation model in the registration to improve its accuracy, without compromising robustness. Moreover, our framework also exploits information in manually placed landmarks more efficiently than MI, since landmarks inform both synthesis and registration - as opposed to registration alone. Finally, we show qualitative results on the public Allen atlas, in which the proposed method provides a clear improvement over MI based registration.
Variational approaches to approximate Bayesian inference provide very efficient means of performing parameter estimation and model selection. Among these, so-called variational-Laplace or VL schemes rely on Gaussian approximations to posterior densities on model parameters. In this note, we review the main variants of VL approaches, that follow from considering nonlinear models of continuous and/or categorical data. En passant, we also derive a few novel theoretical results that complete the portfolio of existing analyses of variational Bayesian approaches, including investigations of their asymptotic convergence. We also suggest practical ways of extending existing VL approaches to hierarchical generative models that include (e.g., precision) hyperparameters.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and synthetic likelihood (SL) techniques have enabled the use of Bayesian inference for models that may be simulated, but for which the likelihood cannot be evaluated pointwise at values of an unknown parameter $\theta$. The main idea in ABC and SL is to, for different values of $\theta$ (usually chosen using a Monte Carlo algorithm), build estimates of the likelihood based on simulations from the model conditional on $\theta$. The quality of these estimates determines the efficiency of an ABC/SL algorithm. In standard ABC/SL, the only means to improve an estimated likelihood at $\theta$ is to simulate more times from the model conditional on $\theta$, which is infeasible in cases where the simulator is computationally expensive. In this paper we describe how to use bootstrapping as a means for improving SL estimates whilst using fewer simulations from the model, and also investigate its use in ABC. Further, we investigate the use of the bag of little bootstraps as a means for applying this approach to large datasets, yielding Monte Carlo algorithms that accurately approximate posterior distributions whilst only simulating subsamples of the full data. Examples of the approach applied to i.i.d., temporal and spatial data are given.
The following technical report presents a formal approach to probabilistic minimalist grammar parameter estimation. We describe a formalization of a minimalist grammar. We then present an algorithm for the application of variational Bayesian inference to this formalization.
Stochastic Gradient Descent with a constant learning rate (constant SGD) simulates a Markov chain with a stationary distribution. With this perspective, we derive several new results. (1) We show that constant SGD can be used as an approximate Bayesian posterior inference algorithm. Specifically, we show how to adjust the tuning parameters of constant SGD to best match the stationary distribution to a posterior, minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between these two distributions. (2) We demonstrate that constant SGD gives rise to a new variational EM algorithm that optimizes hyperparameters in complex probabilistic models. (3) We also propose SGD with momentum for sampling and show how to adjust the damping coefficient accordingly. (4) We analyze MCMC algorithms. For Langevin Dynamics and Stochastic Gradient Fisher Scoring, we quantify the approximation errors due to finite learning rates. Finally (5), we use the stochastic process perspective to give a short proof of why Polyak averaging is optimal. Based on this idea, we propose a scalable approximate MCMC algorithm, the Averaged Stochastic Gradient Sampler.
A principled approach to characterize the hidden structure of networks is to formulate generative models, and then infer their parameters from data. When the desired structure is composed of modules or "communities", a suitable choice for this task is the stochastic block model (SBM), where nodes are divided into groups, and the placement of edges is conditioned on the group memberships. Here, we present a nonparametric Bayesian method to infer the modular structure of empirical networks, including the number of modules and their hierarchical organization. We focus on a microcanonical variant of the SBM, where the structure is imposed via hard constraints, i.e. the generated networks are not allowed to violate the patterns imposed by the model. We show how this simple model variation allows simultaneously for two important improvements over more traditional inference approaches: 1. Deeper Bayesian hierarchies, with noninformative priors replaced by sequences of priors and hyperpriors, that not only remove limitations that seriously degrade the inference on large networks, but also reveal structures at multiple scales; 2. A very efficient inference algorithm that scales well not only for networks with a large number of nodes and edges, but also with an unlimited number of modules. We show also how this approach can be used to sample modular hierarchies from the posterior distribution, as well as to perform model selection. We discuss and analyze the differences between sampling from the posterior and simply finding the single parameter estimate that maximizes it. Furthermore, we expose a direct equivalence between our microcanonical approach and alternative derivations based on the canonical SBM.
We are interested in the development of surrogate models for uncertainty quantification and propagation in problems governed by stochastic PDEs using a deep convolutional encoder-decoder network in a similar fashion to approaches considered in deep learning for image-to-image regression tasks. Since normal neural networks are data intensive and cannot provide predictive uncertainty, we propose a Bayesian approach to convolutional neural nets. A recently introduced variational gradient descent algorithm based on Stein's method is scaled to deep convolutional networks to perform approximate Bayesian inference on millions of uncertain network parameters. This approach achieves state of the art performance in terms of predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification in comparison to other approaches in Bayesian neural networks as well as techniques that include Gaussian processes and ensemble methods even when the training data size is relatively small. To evaluate the performance of this approach, we consider standard uncertainty quantification benchmark problems including flow in heterogeneous media defined in terms of limited data-driven permeability realizations. The performance of the surrogate model developed is very good even though there is no underlying structure shared between the input (permeability) and output (flow/pressure) fields as is often the case in the image-to-image regression models used in computer vision problems. Studies are performed with an underlying stochastic input dimensionality up to $4,225$ where most other uncertainty quantification methods fail. Uncertainty propagation tasks are considered and the predictive output Bayesian statistics are compared to those obtained with Monte Carlo estimates.
Detecting a change point is a crucial task in statistics that has been recently extended to the quantum realm. A source state generator that emits a series of single photons in a default state suffers an alteration at some point and starts to emit photons in a mutated state. The problem consists in identifying the point where the change took place. In this work, we consider a learning agent that applies Bayesian inference on experimental data to solve this problem. This learning machine adjusts the measurement over each photon according to the past experimental results finds the change position in an online fashion. Our results show that the local-detection success probability can be largely improved by using such a machine learning technique. This protocol provides a tool for improvement in many applications where a sequence of identical quantum states is required.
Many applications in signal processing require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. More specifically, Bayesian inference needs the computation of {\it a-posteriori} estimators which are often expressed as complicated multi-dimensional integrals. Unfortunately, analytical expressions for these estimators cannot be found in most real-world applications, and Monte Carlo methods are the only feasible approach. A very powerful class of Monte Carlo techniques is formed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. They generate a Markov chain such that its stationary distribution coincides with the target posterior density. In this work, we perform a thorough review of MCMC methods using multiple candidates in order to select the next state of the chain, at each iteration. With respect to the classical Metropolis-Hastings method, the use of multiple try techniques foster the exploration of the sample space. We present different Multiple Try Metropolis schemes, Ensemble MCMC methods, Particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithms and the Delayed Rejection Metropolis technique. We highlight limitations, benefits, connections and differences among the different methods, and compare them by numerical simulations.
The need to reason about uncertainty in large, complex, and multi-modal datasets has become increasingly common across modern scientific environments. The ability to transform samples from one distribution $P$ to another distribution $Q$ enables the solution to many problems in machine learning (e.g. Bayesian inference, generative modeling) and has been actively pursued from theoretical, computational, and application perspectives across the fields of information theory, computer science, and biology. Performing such transformations, in general, still leads to computational difficulties, especially in high dimensions. Here, we consider the problem of computing such "measure transport maps" with efficient and parallelizable methods. Under the mild assumptions that $P$ need not be known but can be sampled from, and that the density of $Q$ is known up to a proportionality constant, and that $Q$ is log-concave, we provide in this work a convex optimization problem pertaining to relative entropy minimization. We show how an empirical minimization formulation and polynomial chaos map parameterization can allow for learning a transport map between $P$ and $Q$ with distributed and scalable methods. We also leverage findings from nonequilibrium thermodynamics to represent the transport map as a composition of simpler maps, each of which is learned sequentially with a transport cost regularized version of the aforementioned problem formulation. We provide examples of our framework within the context of Bayesian inference for the Boston housing dataset and generative modeling for handwritten digit images from the MNIST dataset.
Grouping objects into clusters based on similarities or weights between them is one of the most important problems in science and engineering. In this work, by extending message passing algorithms and spectral algorithms proposed for unweighted community detection problem, we develop a non-parametric method based on statistical physics, by mapping the problem to Potts model at the critical temperature of spin glass transition and applying belief propagation to solve the marginals corresponding to the Boltzmann distribution. Our algorithm is robust to over-fitting and gives a principled way to determine whether there are significant clusters in the data and how many clusters there are. We apply our method to different clustering tasks and use extensive numerical experiments to illustrate the advantage of our method over existing algorithms. In the community detection problem in weighted and directed networks, we show that our algorithm significantly outperforms existing algorithms. In the clustering problem when the data was generated by mixture models in the sparse regime we show that our method works to the theoretical limit of detectability and gives accuracy very close to that of the optimal Bayesian inference. In the semi-supervised clustering problem, our method only needs several labels to work perfectly in classic datasets. Finally, we further develop Thouless-Anderson-Palmer equations which reduce heavily the computation complexity in dense-networks but gives almost the same performance as belief propagation.
We study parameter inference in large-scale latent variable models. We first propose an unified treatment of online inference for latent variable models from a non-canonical exponential family, and draw explicit links between several previously proposed frequentist or Bayesian methods. We then propose a novel inference method for the frequentist estimation of parameters, that adapts MCMC methods to online inference of latent variable models with the proper use of local Gibbs sampling. Then, for latent Dirich-let allocation,we provide an extensive set of experiments and comparisons with existing work, where our new approach outperforms all previously proposed methods. In particular, using Gibbs sampling for latent variable inference is superior to variational inference in terms of test log-likelihoods. Moreover, Bayesian inference through variational methods perform poorly, sometimes leading to worse fits with latent variables of higher dimensionality.
The Ising model is important in statistical modeling and inference in many applications, however its normalizing constant, mean number of active vertices and mean spin interaction -- quantities needed in inference -- are computationally intractable. We provide accurate approximations that make it possible to numerically calculate these quantities in the homogeneous case. Simulation studies indicate good performance of our approximation formulae that are scalable and unfazed by the size (number of nodes, degree of graph) of the Markov Random Field. The practical import of our approximation formulae is illustrated in performing Bayesian inference in a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging activation detection experiment, and also in likelihood ratio testing for anisotropy in the spatial patterns of yearly increases in pistachio tree yields.
The study of human-robot interaction is fundamental to the design and use of robotics in real-world applications. Robots will need to predict and adapt to the actions of human collaborators in order to achieve good performance and improve safety and end-user adoption. This paper evaluates a human-robot collaboration scheme that combines the task allocation and motion levels of reasoning: the robotic agent uses Bayesian inference to predict the next goal of its human partner from his or her ongoing motion, and re-plans its own actions in real time. This anticipative adaptation is desirable in many practical scenarios, where humans are unable or unwilling to take on the cognitive overhead required to explicitly communicate their intent to the robot. A behavioral experiment indicates that the combination of goal inference and dynamic task planning significantly improves both objective and perceived performance of the human-robot team. Participants were highly sensitive to the differences between robot behaviors, preferring to work with a robot that adapted to their actions over one that did not.