Safety is the major consideration in controlling complex dynamical systems using reinforcement learning (RL), where the safety certificate can provide provable safety guarantee. A valid safety certificate is an energy function indicating that safe states are with low energy, and there exists a corresponding safe control policy that allows the energy function to always dissipate. The safety certificate and the safe control policy are closely related to each other and both challenging to synthesize. Therefore, existing learning-based studies treat either of them as prior knowledge to learn the other, which limits their applicability with general unknown dynamics. This paper proposes a novel approach that simultaneously synthesizes the energy-function-based safety certificate and learns the safe control policy with CRL. We do not rely on prior knowledge about either an available model-based controller or a perfect safety certificate. In particular, we formulate a loss function to optimize the safety certificate parameters by minimizing the occurrence of energy increases. By adding this optimization procedure as an outer loop to the Lagrangian-based constrained reinforcement learning (CRL), we jointly update the policy and safety certificate parameters and prove that they will converge to their respective local optima, the optimal safe policy and a valid safety certificate. We evaluate our algorithms on multiple safety-critical benchmark environments. The results show that the proposed algorithm learns provably safe policies with no constraint violation. The validity or feasibility of synthesized safety certificate is also verified numerically.
Almost all statements in knowledge bases have a temporal scope during which they are valid. Hence, knowledge base completion (KBC) on temporal knowledge bases (TKB), where each statement \textit{may} be associated with a temporal scope, has attracted growing attention. Prior works assume that each statement in a TKB \textit{must} be associated with a temporal scope. This ignores the fact that the scoping information is commonly missing in a KB. Thus prior work is typically incapable of handling generic use cases where a TKB is composed of temporal statements with/without a known temporal scope. In order to address this issue, we establish a new knowledge base embedding framework, called TIME2BOX, that can deal with atemporal and temporal statements of different types simultaneously. Our main insight is that answers to a temporal query always belong to a subset of answers to a time-agnostic counterpart. Put differently, time is a filter that helps pick out answers to be correct during certain periods. We introduce boxes to represent a set of answer entities to a time-agnostic query. The filtering functionality of time is modeled by intersections over these boxes. In addition, we generalize current evaluation protocols on time interval prediction. We describe experiments on two datasets and show that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods on both link prediction and time prediction.
We provide novel bounds on average treatment effects (on the treated) that are valid under an unconfoundedness assumption. Our bounds are designed to be robust in challenging situations, for example, when the conditioning variables take on a large number of different values in the observed sample, or when the overlap condition is violated. This robustness is achieved by only using limited "pooling" of information across observations. Namely, the bounds are constructed as sample averages over functions of the observed outcomes such that the contribution of each outcome only depends on the treatment status of a limited number of observations. No information pooling across observations leads to so-called "Manski bounds", while unlimited information pooling leads to standard inverse propensity score weighting. We explore the intermediate range between these two extremes and provide corresponding inference methods. We show in Monte Carlo experiments and through two empirical application that our bounds are indeed robust and informative in practice.
We propose pair copula constructed point-optimal sign tests in the context of linear and nonlinear predictive regressions with endogenous, persistent regressors, and disturbances exhibiting serial (nonlinear) dependence. The proposed approach entails considering the entire dependence structure of the signs to capture the serial dependence, and building feasible test statistics based on pair copula constructions of the sign process. The tests are exact and valid in the presence of heavy tailed and nonstandard errors, as well as heterogeneous and persistent volatility. Furthermore, they may be inverted to build confidence regions for the parameters of the regression function. Finally, we adopt an adaptive approach based on the split-sample technique to maximize the power of the test by finding an appropriate alternative hypothesis. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare the performance of the proposed "quasi"-point-optimal sign tests based on pair copula constructions by comparing its size and power to those of certain existing tests that are intended to be robust against heteroskedasticity. The simulation results maintain the superiority of our procedures to existing popular tests.
Recently, direct data-driven prediction has found important applications for controlling unknown systems, particularly in predictive control. Such an approach provides exact prediction using behavioral system theory when noise-free data are available. For stochastic data, although approximate predictors exist based on different statistical criteria, they fail to provide statistical guarantees of prediction accuracy. In this paper, confidence regions are provided for these stochastic predictors based on the prediction error distribution. Leveraging this, an optimal predictor which achieves minimum mean-squared prediction error is also proposed to enhance prediction accuracy. These results depend on some true model parameters, but they can also be replaced with an approximate data-driven formulation in practice. Numerical results show that the derived confidence region is valid and smaller prediction errors are observed for the proposed minimum mean-squared error estimate, even with the approximate data-driven formulation.
The reconstruction of geographical data over a century, allows to figuring out the evolution of the French railway landscape, and how it has been impacted by major events (eg.: WWII), or longer time span processes : industry outsourcing, metropolization, public transport policies or absence of them. This work is resulting from the fusion of several public geographical data (SNCF, IGN), enriched with the computer-assisted addition of multiple data gathered on the Internet (Wikipedia, volunteer geographic information). The dataset compounds almost every rail stations (even simple stops) and railway branch nodes, whose link to their respective rail lines allows to build the underlying consistent graph of the network. Every rail line has a "valid to" date (or approx) so that time evolution can be displayed. The present progress of that reconstruction sums up to roughly 90% of what is expected (exact total unknown). This allows to consider temporal demographic analysis (how many cities and towns served by the railway since 1925 up on today), and environmental simulations as well (CO2 cost by given destination ).
In Optimal Recovery, the task of learning a function from observational data is tackled deterministically by adopting a worst-case perspective tied to an explicit model assumption made on the functions to be learned. Working in the framework of Hilbert spaces, this article considers a model assumption based on approximability. It also incorporates observational inaccuracies modeled via additive errors bounded in $\ell_2$. Earlier works have demonstrated that regularization provide algorithms that are optimal in this situation, but did not fully identify the desired hyperparameter. This article fills the gap in both a local scenario and a global scenario. In the local scenario, which amounts to the determination of Chebyshev centers, the semidefinite recipe of Beck and Eldar (legitimately valid in the complex setting only) is complemented by a more direct approach, with the proviso that the observational functionals have orthonormal representers. In the said approach, the desired parameter is the solution to an equation that can be resolved via standard methods. In the global scenario, where linear algorithms rule, the parameter elusive in the works of Micchelli et al. is found as the byproduct of a semidefinite program. Additionally and quite surprisingly, in case of observational functionals with orthonormal representers, it is established that any regularization parameter is optimal.
Modern machine learning algorithms are capable of providing remarkably accurate point-predictions; however, questions remain about their statistical reliability. Unlike conventional machine learning methods, conformal prediction algorithms return confidence sets (i.e., set-valued predictions) that correspond to a given significance level. Moreover, these confidence sets are valid in the sense that they guarantee finite sample control over type 1 error probabilities, allowing the practitioner to choose an acceptable error rate. In our paper, we propose inductive conformal prediction (ICP) algorithms for the tasks of text infilling and part-of-speech (POS) prediction for natural language data. We construct new conformal prediction-enhanced bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) algorithms for POS tagging and a new conformal prediction-enhanced BERT algorithm for text infilling. We analyze the performance of the algorithms in simulations using the Brown Corpus, which contains over 57,000 sentences. Our results demonstrate that the ICP algorithms are able to produce valid set-valued predictions that are small enough to be applicable in real-world applications. We also provide a real data example for how our proposed set-valued predictions can improve machine generated audio transcriptions.
Instrumental variables allow for quantification of cause and effect relationships even in the absence of interventions. To achieve this, a number of causal assumptions must be met, the most important of which is the independence assumption, which states that the instrument and any confounding factor must be independent. However, if this independence condition is not met, can we still work with imperfect instrumental variables? Imperfect instruments can manifest themselves by violations of the instrumental inequalities that constrain the set of correlations in the scenario. In this paper, we establish a quantitative relationship between such violations of instrumental inequalities and the minimal amount of measurement dependence required to explain them. As a result, we provide adapted inequalities that are valid in the presence of a relaxed measurement dependence assumption in the instrumental scenario. This allows for the adaptation of existing and new lower bounds on the average causal effect for instrumental scenarios with binary outcomes. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of quantum mechanics.
We formulate natural gradient variational inference (VI), expectation propagation (EP), and posterior linearisation (PL) as extensions of Newton's method for optimising the parameters of a Bayesian posterior distribution. This viewpoint explicitly casts inference algorithms under the framework of numerical optimisation. We show that common approximations to Newton's method from the optimisation literature, namely Gauss-Newton and quasi-Newton methods (e.g., the BFGS algorithm), are still valid under this 'Bayes-Newton' framework. This leads to a suite of novel algorithms which are guaranteed to result in positive semi-definite (PSD) covariance matrices, unlike standard VI and EP. Our unifying viewpoint provides new insights into the connections between various inference schemes. All the presented methods apply to any model with a Gaussian prior and non-conjugate likelihood, which we demonstrate with (sparse) Gaussian processes and state space models.
A new concept, called quasi-linear transfer functions (QLTF), which can be used to characterize the output frequency behaviour of nonlinear systems, is introduced based on the well-known Volterra series representation. By using the new concept of QLTF, it can be proved that the input and output frequency behaviour of a given system can be expressed using a number of one-dimensional functions with a form similar to that of the traditional frequency response function for linear systems. Two algorithms, which can be used to determine the valid range of the associated output frequencies of arbitrary order nonlinear subsystems with both a multitone and general inputs, are provided. The results obtained provide a new important insight into the output frequency characteristics of nonlinear systems and have many potential applications in nonlinear systems analysis and nonlinear structure detection
The lack of non-parametric statistical tests for confounding bias significantly hampers the development of robust, valid and generalizable predictive models in many fields of research. Here I propose the partial and full confounder tests, which, for a given confounder variable, probe the null hypotheses of unconfounded and fully confounded models, respectively. The tests provide a strict control for Type I errors and high statistical power, even for non-normally and non-linearly dependent predictions, often seen in machine learning. Applying the proposed tests on models trained on functional brain connectivity data from the Human Connectome Project and the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange dataset reveals confounders that were previously unreported or found to be hard to correct for with state-of-the-art confound mitigation approaches. The tests, implemented in the package mlconfound (https://mlconfound.readthedocs.io), can aid the assessment and improvement of the generalizability and neurobiological validity of predictive models and, thereby, foster the development of clinically useful machine learning biomarkers.
AutoML systems build machine learning models automatically by performing a search over valid data transformations and learners, along with hyper-parameter optimization for each learner. Many AutoML systems use meta-learning to guide search for optimal pipelines. In this work, we present a novel meta-learning system called KGpip which, (1) builds a database of datasets and corresponding pipelines by mining thousands of scripts with program analysis, (2) uses dataset embeddings to find similar datasets in the database based on its content instead of metadata-based features, (3) models AutoML pipeline creation as a graph generation problem, to succinctly characterize the diverse pipelines seen for a single dataset. KGpip's meta-learning is a sub-component for AutoML systems. We demonstrate this by integrating KGpip with two AutoML systems. Our comprehensive evaluation using 126 datasets, including those used by the state-of-the-art systems, shows that KGpip significantly outperforms these systems.
Sign language is a main communication channel among hearing disability community. Automatic sign language transcription could facilitate better communication and understanding between hearing disability community and hearing majority. As a recent work in automatic sign language transcription has discussed, effectively handling or identifying a non-sign posture is one of the key issues. A non-sign posture is a posture unintended for sign reading and does not belong to any valid sign. A non-sign posture may arise during sign transition or simply from an unaware posture. Confidence ratio has been proposed to mitigate the issue. Confidence ratio is simple to compute and readily available without extra training. However, confidence ratio is reported to only partially address the problem. In addition, confidence ratio formulation is susceptible to computational instability. This article proposes alternative formulations to confidence ratio, investigates an issue of non-sign identification for Thai Finger Spelling recognition, explores potential solutions and has found a promising direction. Not only does this finding address the issue of non-sign identification, it also provide some insight behind a well-learned inference machine, revealing hidden meaning and new interpretation of the underlying mechanism. Our proposed methods are evaluated and shown to be effective for non-sign detection.
Evaluating the performance of an ongoing policy plays a vital role in many areas such as medicine and economics, to provide crucial instructions on the early-stop of the online experiment and timely feedback from the environment. Policy evaluation in online learning thus attracts increasing attention by inferring the mean outcome of the optimal policy (i.e., the value) in real-time. Yet, such a problem is particularly challenging due to the dependent data generated in the online environment, the unknown optimal policy, and the complex exploration and exploitation trade-off in the adaptive experiment. In this paper, we aim to overcome these difficulties in policy evaluation for online learning. We explicitly derive the probability of exploration that quantifies the probability of exploring non-optimal actions under commonly used bandit algorithms. We use this probability to conduct valid inference on the online conditional mean estimator under each action and develop the doubly robust interval estimation (DREAM) method to infer the value under the estimated optimal policy in online learning. The proposed value estimator provides double protection for consistency and is asymptotically normal with a Wald-type confidence interval provided. Extensive simulation studies and real data applications are conducted to demonstrate the empirical validity of the proposed DREAM method.
The advancement of generative radiance fields has pushed the boundary of 3D-aware image synthesis. Motivated by the observation that a 3D object should look realistic from multiple viewpoints, these methods introduce a multi-view constraint as regularization to learn valid 3D radiance fields from 2D images. Despite the progress, they often fall short of capturing accurate 3D shapes due to the shape-color ambiguity, limiting their applicability in downstream tasks. In this work, we address this ambiguity by proposing a novel shading-guided generative implicit model that is able to learn a starkly improved shape representation. Our key insight is that an accurate 3D shape should also yield a realistic rendering under different lighting conditions. This multi-lighting constraint is realized by modeling illumination explicitly and performing shading with various lighting conditions. Gradients are derived by feeding the synthesized images to a discriminator. To compensate for the additional computational burden of calculating surface normals, we further devise an efficient volume rendering strategy via surface tracking, reducing the training and inference time by 24% and 48%, respectively. Our experiments on multiple datasets show that the proposed approach achieves photorealistic 3D-aware image synthesis while capturing accurate underlying 3D shapes. We demonstrate improved performance of our approach on 3D shape reconstruction against existing methods, and show its applicability on image relighting. Our code will be released at https://github.com/XingangPan/ShadeGAN.
This document describes version 0.10 of TorchAudio: building blocks for machine learning applications in the audio and speech processing domain. The objective of TorchAudio is to accelerate the development and deployment of machine learning applications for researchers and engineers by providing off-the-shelf building blocks. The building blocks are designed to be GPU-compatible, automatically differentiable, and production-ready. TorchAudio can be easily installed from Python Package Index repository and the source code is publicly available under a BSD-2-Clause License (as of September 2021) at https://github.com/pytorch/audio. In this document, we provide an overview of the design principles, functionalities, and benchmarks of TorchAudio. We also benchmark our implementation of several audio and speech operations and models. We verify through the benchmarks that our implementations of various operations and models are valid and perform similarly to other publicly available implementations.
Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.
The goal of structure-based drug discovery is to find small molecules that bind to a given target protein. Deep learning has been used to generate drug-like molecules with certain cheminformatic properties, but has not yet been applied to generating 3D molecules predicted to bind to proteins by sampling the conditional distribution of protein-ligand binding interactions. In this work, we describe for the first time a deep learning system for generating 3D molecular structures conditioned on a receptor binding site. We approach the problem using a conditional variational autoencoder trained on an atomic density grid representation of cross-docked protein-ligand structures. We apply atom fitting and bond inference procedures to construct valid molecular conformations from generated atomic densities. We evaluate the properties of the generated molecules and demonstrate that they change significantly when conditioned on mutated receptors. We also explore the latent space learned by our generative model using sampling and interpolation techniques. This work opens the door for end-to-end prediction of stable bioactive molecules from protein structures with deep learning.
In practical media distribution systems, visual content usually undergoes multiple stages of quality degradation along the delivery chain, but the pristine source content is rarely available at most quality monitoring points along the chain to serve as a reference for quality assessment. As a result, full-reference (FR) and reduced-reference (RR) image quality assessment (IQA) methods are generally infeasible. Although no-reference (NR) methods are readily applicable, their performance is often not reliable. On the other hand, intermediate references of degraded quality are often available, e.g., at the input of video transcoders, but how to make the best use of them in proper ways has not been deeply investigated. Here we make one of the first attempts to establish a new paradigm named degraded-reference IQA (DR IQA). Specifically, we lay out the architectures of DR IQA and introduce a 6-bit code to denote the choices of configurations. We construct the first large-scale databases dedicated to DR IQA and will make them publicly available. We make novel observations on distortion behavior in multi-stage distortion pipelines by comprehensively analyzing five multiple distortion combinations. Based on these observations, we develop novel DR IQA models and make extensive comparisons with a series of baseline models derived from top-performing FR and NR models. The results suggest that DR IQA may offer significant performance improvement in multiple distortion environments, thereby establishing DR IQA as a valid IQA paradigm that is worth further exploration.