Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate inference algorithm on a specific data set. This paper introduces the auxiliary inference divergence estimator (AIDE), an algorithm for measuring the accuracy of approximate inference algorithms. AIDE is based on the observation that inference algorithms can be treated as probabilistic models and the random variables used within the inference algorithm can be viewed as auxiliary variables. This view leads to a new estimator for the symmetric KL divergence between the approximating distributions of two inference algorithms. The paper illustrates application of AIDE to algorithms for inference in regression, hidden Markov, and Dirichlet process mixture models. The experiments show that AIDE captures the qualitative behavior of a broad class of inference algorithms and can detect failure modes of inference algorithms that are missed by standard heuristics.
Implicit probabilistic models are a flexible class of models defined by a simulation process for data. They form the basis for theories which encompass our understanding of the physical world. Despite this fundamental nature, the use of implicit models remains limited due to challenges in specifying complex latent structure in them, and in performing inferences in such models with large data sets. In this paper, we first introduce hierarchical implicit models (HIMs). HIMs combine the idea of implicit densities with hierarchical Bayesian modeling, thereby defining models via simulators of data with rich hidden structure. Next, we develop likelihood-free variational inference (LFVI), a scalable variational inference algorithm for HIMs. Key to LFVI is specifying a variational family that is also implicit. This matches the model's flexibility and allows for accurate approximation of the posterior. We demonstrate diverse applications: a large-scale physical simulator for predator-prey populations in ecology; a Bayesian generative adversarial network for discrete data; and a deep implicit model for text generation.
Bayesian posterior inference is prevalent in various machine learning problems. Variational inference provides one way to approximate the posterior distribution, however its expressive power is limited and so is the accuracy of resulting approximation. Recently, there has a trend of using neural networks to approximate the variational posterior distribution due to the flexibility of neural network architecture. One way to construct flexible variational distribution is to warp a simple density into a complex by normalizing flows, where the resulting density can be analytically evaluated. However, there is a trade-off between the flexibility of normalizing flow and computation cost for efficient transformation. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective architecture of normalizing flows, ConvFlow, based on convolution over the dimensions of random input vector. Experiments on synthetic and real world posterior inference problems demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.
Disentangled representations, where the higher level data generative factors are reflected in disjoint latent dimensions, offer several benefits such as ease of deriving invariant representations, transferability to other tasks, interpretability, etc. We consider the problem of unsupervised learning of disentangled representations from large pool of unlabeled observations, and propose a variational inference based approach to infer disentangled latent factors. We introduce a regularizer on the expectation of the approximate posterior over observed data that encourages the disentanglement. We also propose a new disentanglement metric which is better aligned with the qualitative disentanglement observed in the decoder's output. We empirically observe significant improvement over existing methods in terms of both disentanglement and data likelihood (reconstruction quality).
Temporal point processes have been widely applied to model event sequence data generated by online users. In this paper, we consider the problem of how to design the optimal control policy for point processes, such that the stochastic system driven by the point process is steered to a target state. In particular, we exploit the key insight to view the stochastic optimal control problem from the perspective of optimal measure and variational inference. We further propose a convex optimization framework and an efficient algorithm to update the policy adaptively to the current system state. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that our algorithm can steer the user activities much more accurately and efficiently than other stochastic control methods.
We investigate the use of alternative divergences to Kullback-Leibler (KL) in variational inference(VI), based on the Variational Dropout \cite{kingma2015}. Stochastic gradient variational Bayes (SGVB) \cite{aevb} is a general framework for estimating the evidence lower bound (ELBO) in Variational Bayes. In this work, we extend the SGVB estimator with using Alpha-Divergences, which are alternative to divergences to VI' KL objective. The Gaussian dropout can be seen as a local reparametrization trick of the SGVB objective. We extend the Variational Dropout to use alpha divergences for variational inference. Our results compare $\alpha$-divergence variational dropout with standard variational dropout with correlated and uncorrelated weight noise. We show that the $\alpha$-divergence with $\alpha \rightarrow 1$ (or KL divergence) is still a good measure for use in variational inference, in spite of the efficient use of Alpha-divergences for Dropout VI \cite{Li17}. $\alpha \rightarrow 1$ can yield the lowest training error, and optimizes a good lower bound for the evidence lower bound (ELBO) among all values of the parameter $\alpha \in [0,\infty)$.
In a published paper [Sengupta, 2016], we have proposed that the brain (and other self-organized biological and artificial systems) can be characterized via the mathematical apparatus of a gauge theory. The picture that emerges from this approach suggests that any biological system (from a neuron to an organism) can be cast as resolving uncertainty about its external milieu, either by changing its internal states or its relationship to the environment. Using formal arguments, we have shown that a gauge theory for neuronal dynamics -- based on approximate Bayesian inference -- has the potential to shed new light on phenomena that have thus far eluded a formal description, such as attention and the link between action and perception. Here, we describe the technical apparatus that enables such a variational inference on manifolds. Particularly, the novel contribution of this paper is an algorithm that utlizes a Schild's ladder for parallel transport of sufficient statistics (means, covariances, etc.) on a statistical manifold.
Variational inference (VI) is widely used as an efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. It posits a family of approximating distributions $q$ and finds the closest member to the exact posterior $p$. Closeness is usually measured via a divergence $D(q || p)$ from $q$ to $p$. While successful, this approach also has problems. Notably, it typically leads to underestimation of the posterior variance. In this paper we propose CHIVI, a black-box variational inference algorithm that minimizes $D_{\chi}(p || q)$, the $\chi$-divergence from $p$ to $q$. CHIVI minimizes an upper bound of the model evidence, which we term the $\chi$ upper bound (CUBO). Minimizing the CUBO leads to improved posterior uncertainty, and it can also be used with the classical VI lower bound (ELBO) to provide a sandwich estimate of the model evidence. We study CHIVI on three models: probit regression, Gaussian process classification, and a Cox process model of basketball plays. When compared to expectation propagation and classical VI, CHIVI produces better error rates and more accurate estimates of posterior variance.
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs, but inference in these models has proved challenging. Existing approaches to inference in DGP models assume approximate posteriors that force independence between the layers, and do not work well in practice. We present a doubly stochastic variational inference algorithm, which does not force independence between layers. With our method of inference we demonstrate that a DGP model can be used effectively on data ranging in size from hundreds to a billion points. We provide strong empirical evidence that our inference scheme for DGPs works well in practice in both classification and regression.
Many modern unsupervised or semi-supervised machine learning algorithms rely on Bayesian probabilistic models. These models are usually intractable and thus require approximate inference. Variational inference (VI) lets us approximate a high-dimensional Bayesian posterior with a simpler variational distribution by solving an optimization problem. This approach has been successfully used in various models and large-scale applications. In this review, we give an overview of recent trends in variational inference. We first introduce standard mean field variational inference, then review recent advances focusing on the following aspects: (a) scalable VI, which includes stochastic approximations, (b) generic VI, which extends the applicability of VI to a large class of otherwise intractable models, such as non-conjugate models, (c) accurate VI, which includes variational models beyond the mean field approximation or with atypical divergences, and (d) amortized VI, which implements the inference over local latent variables with inference networks. Finally, we provide a summary of promising future research directions.
We present the Variational Adaptive Newton (VAN) method which is a black-box optimization method especially suitable for explorative-learning tasks such as active learning and reinforcement learning. Similar to Bayesian methods, VAN estimates a distribution that can be used for exploration, but requires computations that are similar to continuous optimization methods. Our theoretical contribution reveals that VAN is a second-order method that unifies existing methods in distinct fields of continuous optimization, variational inference, and evolution strategies. Our experimental results show that VAN performs well on a wide-variety of learning tasks. This work presents a general-purpose explorative-learning method that has the potential to improve learning in areas such as active learning and reinforcement learning.
Many efforts have been devoted to training generative latent variable models with autoregressive decoders, such as recurrent neural networks (RNN). Stochastic recurrent models have been successful in capturing the variability observed in natural sequential data such as speech. We unify successful ideas from recently proposed architectures into a stochastic recurrent model: each step in the sequence is associated with a latent variable that is used to condition the recurrent dynamics for future steps. Training is performed with amortized variational inference where the approximate posterior is augmented with a RNN that runs backward through the sequence. In addition to maximizing the variational lower bound, we ease training of the latent variables by adding an auxiliary cost which forces them to reconstruct the state of the backward recurrent network. This provides the latent variables with a task-independent objective that enhances the performance of the overall model. We found this strategy to perform better than alternative approaches such as KL annealing. Although being conceptually simple, our model achieves state-of-the-art results on standard speech benchmarks such as TIMIT and Blizzard and competitive performance on sequential MNIST. Finally, we apply our model to language modeling on the IMDB dataset where the auxiliary cost helps in learning interpretable latent variables. Source Code: \url{https://github.com/anirudh9119/zforcing_nips17}
Many problems in machine learning are naturally expressed in the language of undirected graphical models. Here, we propose black-box learning and inference algorithms for undirected models that optimize a variational approximation to the log-likelihood of the model. Central to our approach is an upper bound on the log-partition function parametrized by a function q that we express as a flexible neural network. Our bound makes it possible to track the partition function during learning, to speed-up sampling, and to train a broad class of hybrid directed/undirected models via a unified variational inference framework. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on several popular generative modeling datasets.
Variational inference for latent variable models is prevalent in various machine learning problems, typically solved by maximizing the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) of the true data likelihood with respect to a variational distribution. However, freely enriching the family of variational distribution is challenging since the ELBO requires variational likelihood evaluations of the latent variables. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to enrich the variational family by incorporating auxiliary variables to the variational family. The resulting inference network doesn't require density evaluations for the auxiliary variables and thus complex implicit densities over the auxiliary variables can be constructed by neural networks. It can be shown that the actual variational posterior of the proposed approach is essentially modeling a rich probabilistic mixture of simple variational posterior indexed by auxiliary variables, thus a flexible inference model can be built. Empirical evaluations on several density estimation tasks demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Modeling sequential data has become more and more important in practice. Some applications are autonomous driving, virtual sensors and weather forecasting. To model such systems so called recurrent models are used. In this article we introduce two new Deep Recurrent Gaussian Process (DRGP) models based on the Sparse Spectrum Gaussian Process (SSGP) and the improved variational version called Variational Sparse Spectrum Gaussian Process (VSSGP). We follow the recurrent structure given by an existing DRGP based on a specific sparse Nystr\"om approximation. Therefore, we also variationally integrate out the input-space and hence can propagate uncertainty through the layers. We can show that for the resulting lower bound an optimal variational distribution exists. Training is realized through optimizing the variational lower bound. Using Distributed Variational Inference (DVI), we can reduce the computational complexity. We improve over current state of the art methods in prediction accuracy for experimental data-sets used for their evaluation and introduce a new data-set for engine control, named Emission. Furthermore, our method can easily be adapted for unsupervised learning, e.g. the latent variable model and its deep version.
To address three important issues involved in latent variable models (LVMs), including capturing infrequent patterns, achieving small-sized but expressive models and alleviating overfitting, several studies have been devoted to "diversifying" LVMs, which aim at encouraging the components in LVMs to be diverse. Most existing studies fall into a frequentist-style regularization framework, where the components are learned via point estimation. In this paper, we investigate how to "diversify" LVMs in the paradigm of Bayesian learning. We propose two approaches that have complementary advantages. One is to define a diversity-promoting mutual angular prior which assigns larger density to components with larger mutual angles and use this prior to affect the posterior via Bayes' rule. We develop two efficient approximate posterior inference algorithms based on variational inference and MCMC sampling. The other approach is to impose diversity-promoting regularization directly over the post-data distribution of components. We also extend our approach to "diversify" Bayesian nonparametric models where the number of components is infinite. A sampling algorithm based on slice sampling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is developed. We apply these methods to "diversify" Bayesian mixture of experts model and infinite latent feature model. Experiments on various datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our methods.
We consider the problem of analyzing timestamped relational events between a set of entities, such as messages between users of an on-line social network. Such data are often analyzed using static or discrete-time network models, which discard a significant amount of information by aggregating events over time to form network snapshots. In this paper, we introduce a block point process model (BPPM) for continuous-time event-based dynamic networks. The BPPM is inspired by the well-known stochastic block model (SBM) for static networks. We show that networks generated by the BPPM follow an SBM in the limit of a growing number of nodes. We use this property to develop principled and efficient local search and variational inference procedures initialized by regularized spectral clustering. We fit BPPMs with exponential Hawkes processes to analyze several real network data sets, including a Facebook wall post network with over 3,500 nodes and 130,000 events.
Sparse variational approximations allow for principled and scalable inference in Gaussian Process (GP) models. In settings where several GPs are part of the generative model, theses GPs are a posteriori coupled. For many applications such as regression where predictive accuracy is the quantity of interest, this coupling is not crucial. Howewer if one is interested in posterior uncertainty, it cannot be ignored. A key element of variational inference schemes is the choice of the approximate posterior parameterization. When the number of latent variables is large, mean field (MF) methods provide fast and accurate posterior means while more structured posterior lead to inference algorithm of greater computational complexity. Here, we extend previous sparse GP approximations and propose a novel parameterization of variational posteriors in the multi-GP setting allowing for fast and scalable inference capturing posterior dependencies.
We propose a framework that directly tackles the probability distribution of the value function parameters in Deep Q Network (DQN), with powerful variational inference subroutines to approximate the posterior of the parameters. We will establish the equivalence between our proposed surrogate objective and variational inference loss. Our new algorithm achieves efficient exploration and performs well on large scale chain Markov Decision Process (MDP).
Many computationally-efficient methods for Bayesian deep learning rely on continuous optimization algorithms, but the implementation of these methods requires significant changes to existing code-bases. In this paper, we propose Vprop, a method for Gaussian variational inference that can be implemented with two minor changes to the off-the-shelf RMSprop optimizer. Vprop also reduces the memory requirements of Black-Box Variational Inference by half. We derive Vprop using the conjugate-computation variational inference method, and establish its connections to Newton's method, natural-gradient methods, and extended Kalman filters. Overall, this paper presents Vprop as a principled, computationally-efficient, and easy-to-implement method for Bayesian deep learning.