Sparse regression has been a popular approach to perform variable selection and enhance the prediction accuracy and interpretability of the resulting statistical model. Existing approaches focus on offline regularized regression, while the online scenario has rarely been studied. In this paper, we propose a novel online sparse linear regression framework for analyzing streaming data when data points arrive sequentially. Our proposed method is memory efficient and requires less stringent restricted strong convexity assumptions. Theoretically, we show that with a properly chosen regularization parameter, the $\ell_2$-norm statistical error of our estimator diminishes to zero in the optimal order of $\tilde{O}({\sqrt{s/t}})$, where $s$ is the sparsity level, $t$ is the streaming sample size, and $\tilde{O}(\cdot)$ hides logarithmic terms. Numerical experiments demonstrate the practical efficiency of our algorithm.
In high dimensional variable selection problems, statisticians often seek to design multiple testing procedures that control the False Discovery Rate (FDR), while concurrently identifying a greater number of relevant variables. Model-X methods, such as Knockoffs and conditional randomization tests, achieve the primary goal of finite-sample FDR control, assuming a known distribution of covariates. However, whether these methods can also achieve the secondary goal of maximizing discoveries remains uncertain. In fact, designing procedures to discover more relevant variables with finite-sample FDR control is a largely open question, even within the arguably simplest linear models. In this paper, we develop near-optimal multiple testing procedures for high dimensional Bayesian linear models with isotropic covariates. We introduce Model-X procedures that provably control the frequentist FDR from finite samples, even when the model is misspecified, and conjecturally achieve near-optimal power when the data follow the Bayesian linear model. Our proposed procedure, PoEdCe, incorporates three key ingredients: Posterior Expectation, distilled Conditional randomization test (dCRT), and the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure with e-values (eBH). The optimality conjecture of PoEdCe is based on a heuristic calculation of its asymptotic true positive proportion (TPP) and false discovery proportion (FDP), which is supported by methods from statistical physics as well as extensive numerical simulations. Our result establishes the Bayesian linear model as a benchmark for comparing the power of various multiple testing procedures.
This paper computationally demonstrates a sharp improvement in predictive performance for $k$ nearest neighbors thanks to an efficient forward selection of the predictor variables. We show both simulated and real-world data that this novel repeatedly approaches outperformance regression models under stepwise selection
Fog manufacturing can greatly enhance traditional manufacturing systems through distributed Fog computation units, which are governed by predictive computational workload offloading methods under different Industrial Internet architectures. It is known that the predictive offloading methods highly depend on accurate prediction and uncertainty quantification of runtime performance metrics, containing multivariate mixed-type responses (i.e., continuous, counting, binary). In this work, we propose a Bayesian sparse regression for multivariate mixed responses to enhance the prediction of runtime performance metrics and to enable the statistical inferences. The proposed method considers both group and individual variable selection to jointly model the mixed types of runtime performance metrics. The conditional dependency among multiple responses is described by a graphical model using the precision matrix, where a spike-and-slab prior is used to enable the sparse estimation of the graph. The proposed method not only achieves accurate prediction, but also makes the predictive model more interpretable with statistical inferences on model parameters and prediction in the Fog manufacturing. A simulation study and a real case example in a Fog manufacturing are conducted to demonstrate the merits of the proposed model.
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a class of popular methods for expensive black-box optimization, and has been widely applied to many scenarios. However, BO suffers from the curse of dimensionality, and scaling it to high-dimensional problems is still a challenge. In this paper, we propose a variable selection method MCTS-VS based on Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS), to iteratively select and optimize a subset of variables. That is, MCTS-VS constructs a low-dimensional subspace via MCTS and optimizes in the subspace with any BO algorithm. We give a theoretical analysis of the general variable selection method to reveal how it can work. Experiments on high-dimensional synthetic functions and real-world problems (i.e., NAS-bench problems and MuJoCo locomotion tasks) show that MCTS-VS equipped with a proper BO optimizer can achieve state-of-the-art performance.
Post-silicon validation is one of the most critical processes in modern semiconductor manufacturing. Specifically, correct and deep understanding in test cases of manufactured devices is key to enable post-silicon tuning and debugging. This analysis is typically performed by experienced human experts. However, with the fast development in semiconductor industry, test cases can contain hundreds of variables. The resulting high-dimensionality poses enormous challenges to experts. Thereby, some recent prior works have introduced data-driven variable selection algorithms to tackle these problems and achieved notable success. Nevertheless, for these methods, experts are not involved in training and inference phases, which may lead to bias and inaccuracy due to the lack of prior knowledge. Hence, this work for the first time aims to design a novel conditional variable selection approach while keeping experts in the loop. In this way, we expect that our algorithm can be more efficiently and effectively trained to identify the most critical variables under certain expert knowledge. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets from industry have been conducted and shown the effectiveness of our method.
Bayesian variable selection methods are powerful techniques for fitting and inferring on sparse high-dimensional linear regression models. However, many are computationally intensive or require restrictive prior distributions on model parameters. In this paper, we proposed a computationally efficient and powerful Bayesian approach for sparse high-dimensional linear regression. Minimal prior assumptions on the parameters are required through the use of plug-in empirical Bayes estimates of hyperparameters. Efficient maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation is completed through a Parameter-Expanded Expectation-Conditional-Maximization (PX-ECM) algorithm. The PX-ECM results in a robust computationally efficient coordinate-wise optimization which -- when updating the coefficient for a particular predictor -- adjusts for the impact of other predictor variables. The completion of the E-step uses an approach motivated by the popular two-group approach to multiple testing. The result is a PaRtitiOned empirical Bayes Ecm (PROBE) algorithm applied to sparse high-dimensional linear regression, which can be completed using one-at-a-time or all-at-once type optimization. We compare the empirical properties of PROBE to comparable approaches with numerous simulation studies and analyses of cancer cell drug responses. The proposed approach is implemented in the R package probe.
Variable selection is an important problem in statistics and machine learning. Copula Entropy (CE) is a mathematical concept for measuring statistical independence and has been applied to variable selection recently. In this paper we propose to apply the CE-based method for variable selection to survival analysis. The idea is to measure the correlation between variables and time-to-event with CE and then select variables according to their CE value. Experiments on simulated data and two real cancer data were conducted to compare the proposed method with two related methods: random survival forest and Lasso-Cox. Experimental results showed that the proposed method can select the 'right' variables out that are more interpretable and lead to better prediction performance.
In this paper, we address the problem of conducting statistical inference in settings involving large-scale data that may be high-dimensional and contaminated by outliers. The high volume and dimensionality of the data require distributed processing and storage solutions. We propose a two-stage distributed and robust statistical inference procedures coping with high-dimensional models by promoting sparsity. In the first stage, known as model selection, relevant predictors are locally selected by applying robust Lasso estimators to the distinct subsets of data. The variable selections from each computation node are then fused by a voting scheme to find the sparse basis for the complete data set. It identifies the relevant variables in a robust manner. In the second stage, the developed statistically robust and computationally efficient bootstrap methods are employed. The actual inference constructs confidence intervals, finds parameter estimates and quantifies standard deviation. Similar to stage 1, the results of local inference are communicated to the fusion center and combined there. By using analytical methods, we establish the favorable statistical properties of the robust and computationally efficient bootstrap methods including consistency for a fixed number of predictors, and robustness. The proposed two-stage robust and distributed inference procedures demonstrate reliable performance and robustness in variable selection, finding confidence intervals and bootstrap approximations of standard deviations even when data is high-dimensional and contaminated by outliers.
Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been hampered by computational challenges, especially in difficult regimes with a large number of covariates P or non-conjugate likelihoods. To scale to the large P regime we introduce an efficient MCMC scheme whose cost per iteration is sublinear in P. In addition we show how this scheme can be extended to generalized linear models for count data, which are prevalent in biology, ecology, economics, and beyond. In particular we design efficient algorithms for variable selection in binomial and negative binomial regression, which includes logistic regression as a special case. In experiments we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods, including on cancer and maize genomic data.
The LASSO is a recent technique for variable selection in the regression model \bean y & = & X\beta + z, \eean where $X\in \R^{n\times p}$ and $z$ is a centered gaussian i.i.d. noise vector $\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2I)$. The LASSO has been proved to achieve remarkable properties such as exact support recovery of sparse vectors when the columns are sufficently incoherent and low prediction error under even less stringent conditions. However, many matrices do not satisfy small coherence in practical applications and the LASSO estimator may thus suffer from what is known as the slow rate regime. The goal of the present paper is to study the LASSO from a slightly different perspective by proposing a mixture model for the design matrix which is able to capture in a natural way the potentially clustered nature of the columns in many practical situations. In this model, the columns of the design matrix are drawn from a Gaussian mixture model. Instead of requiring incoherence for the design matrix $X$, we only require incoherence of the much smaller matrix of the mixture's centers. Our main result states that $X\beta$ can be estimated with the same precision as for incoherent designs except for a correction term depending on the maximal variance in the mixture model.
Deriving a good variable selection strategy in branch-and-bound is essential for the efficiency of modern mixed-integer programming (MIP) solvers. With MIP branching data collected during the previous solution process, learning to branch methods have recently become superior over heuristics. As branch-and-bound is naturally a sequential decision making task, one should learn to optimize the utility of the whole MIP solving process instead of being myopic on each step. In this work, we formulate learning to branch as an offline reinforcement learning (RL) problem, and propose a long-sighted hybrid search scheme to construct the offline MIP dataset, which values the long-term utilities of branching decisions. During the policy training phase, we deploy a ranking-based reward assignment scheme to distinguish the promising samples from the long-term or short-term view, and train the branching model named Branch Ranking via offline policy learning. Experiments on synthetic MIP benchmarks and real-world tasks demonstrate that Branch Rankink is more efficient and robust, and can better generalize to large scales of MIP instances compared to the widely used heuristics and state-of-the-art learning-based branching models.
In this chapter, we review variance selection for time-varying parameter (TVP) models for univariate and multivariate time series within a Bayesian framework. We show how both continuous as well as discrete spike-and-slab shrinkage priors can be transferred from variable selection for regression models to variance selection for TVP models by using a non-centered parametrization. We discuss efficient MCMC estimation and provide an application to US inflation modeling.
The increasing complexity of data requires methods and models that can effectively handle intricate structures, as simplifying them would result in loss of information. While several analytical tools have been developed to work with complex data objects in their original form, these tools are typically limited to single-type variables. In this work, we propose energy trees as a regression and classification model capable of accommodating structured covariates of various types. Energy trees leverage energy statistics to extend the capabilities of conditional inference trees, from which they inherit sound statistical foundations, interpretability, scale invariance, and freedom from distributional assumptions. We specifically focus on functional and graph-structured covariates, while also highlighting the model's flexibility in integrating other variable types. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the model's competitive performance in terms of variable selection and robustness to overfitting. Finally, we assess the model's predictive ability through two empirical analyses involving human biological data. Energy trees are implemented in the R package etree.
Feedforward neural networks (FNNs) can be viewed as non-linear regression models, where covariates enter the model through a combination of weighted summations and non-linear functions. Although these models have some similarities to the approaches used within statistical modelling, the majority of neural network research has been conducted outside of the field of statistics. This has resulted in a lack of statistically-based methodology, and, in particular, there has been little emphasis on model parsimony. Determining the input layer structure is analogous to variable selection, while the structure for the hidden layer relates to model complexity. In practice, neural network model selection is often carried out by comparing models using out-of-sample performance. However, in contrast, the construction of an associated likelihood function opens the door to information-criteria-based variable and architecture selection. A novel model selection method, which performs both input- and hidden-node selection, is proposed using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for FNNs. The choice of BIC over out-of-sample performance as the model selection objective function leads to an increased probability of recovering the true model, while parsimoniously achieving favourable out-of-sample performance. Simulation studies are used to evaluate and justify the proposed method, and applications on real data are investigated.
Intelligent test requires efficient and effective analysis of high-dimensional data in a large scale. Traditionally, the analysis is often conducted by human experts, but it is not scalable in the era of big data. To tackle this challenge, variable selection has been recently introduced to intelligent test. However, in practice, we encounter scenarios where certain variables (e.g. some specific processing conditions for a device under test) must be maintained after variable selection. We call this conditional variable selection, which has not been well investigated for embedded or deep-learning-based variable selection methods. In this paper, we discuss a novel conditional variable selection framework that can select the most important candidate variables given a set of preselected variables.
The expressive and computationally inexpensive bipartite Graph Neural Networks (GNN) have been shown to be an important component of deep learning based Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP) solvers. Recent works have demonstrated the effectiveness of such GNNs in replacing the branching (variable selection) heuristic in branch-and-bound (B&B) solvers. These GNNs are trained, offline and on a collection of MILPs, to imitate a very good but computationally expensive branching heuristic, strong branching. Given that B&B results in a tree of sub-MILPs, we ask (a) whether there are strong dependencies exhibited by the target heuristic among the neighboring nodes of the B&B tree, and (b) if so, whether we can incorporate them in our training procedure. Specifically, we find that with the strong branching heuristic, a child node's best choice was often the parent's second-best choice. We call this the "lookback" phenomenon. Surprisingly, the typical branching GNN of Gasse et al. (2019) often misses this simple "answer". To imitate the target behavior more closely by incorporating the lookback phenomenon in GNNs, we propose two methods: (a) target smoothing for the standard cross-entropy loss function, and (b) adding a Parent-as-Target (PAT) Lookback regularizer term. Finally, we propose a model selection framework to incorporate harder-to-formulate objectives such as solving time in the final models. Through extensive experimentation on standard benchmark instances, we show that our proposal results in up to 22% decrease in the size of the B&B tree and up to 15% improvement in the solving times.
As edge devices become increasingly powerful, data analytics are gradually moving from a centralized to a decentralized regime where edge compute resources are exploited to process more of the data locally. This regime of analytics is coined as federated data analytics (FDA). In spite of the recent success stories of FDA, most literature focuses exclusively on deep neural networks. In this work, we take a step back to develop an FDA treatment for one of the most fundamental statistical models: linear regression. Our treatment is built upon hierarchical modeling that allows borrowing strength across multiple groups. To this end, we propose two federated hierarchical model structures that provide a shared representation across devices to facilitate information sharing. Notably, our proposed frameworks are capable of providing uncertainty quantification, variable selection, hypothesis testing and fast adaptation to new unseen data. We validate our methods on a range of real-life applications including condition monitoring for aircraft engines. The results show that our FDA treatment for linear models can serve as a competing benchmark model for future development of federated algorithms.
Survival analysis is a fundamental area of focus in biomedical research, particularly in the context of personalized medicine. This prominence is due to the increasing prevalence of large and high-dimensional datasets, such as omics and medical image data. However, the literature on non-linear regression algorithms and variable selection techniques for interval-censoring is either limited or non-existent, particularly in the context of neural networks. Our objective is to introduce a novel predictive framework tailored for interval-censored regression tasks, rooted in Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models. Our strategy comprises two key components: i) a variable selection phase leveraging recent advances on sparse neural network architectures, ii) a regression model targeting prediction of the interval-censored response. To assess the performance of our novel algorithm, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation through both numerical experiments and real-world applications that encompass scenarios related to diabetes and physical activity. Our results outperform traditional AFT algorithms, particularly in scenarios featuring non-linear relationships.
Branch-and-bound is a systematic enumerative method for combinatorial optimization, where the performance highly relies on the variable selection strategy. State-of-the-art handcrafted heuristic strategies suffer from relatively slow inference time for each selection, while the current machine learning methods require a significant amount of labeled data. We propose a new approach for solving the data labeling and inference latency issues in combinatorial optimization based on the use of the reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm. We use imitation learning to bootstrap an RL agent and then use Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to further explore global optimal actions. Then, a value network is used to run Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) to enhance the policy network. We evaluate the performance of our method on four different categories of combinatorial optimization problems and show that our approach performs strongly compared to the state-of-the-art machine learning and heuristics based methods.