Contaminant observations and outliers often cause problems when estimating the parameters of cognitive models, which are statistical models representing cognitive processes. In this study, we test and improve the robustness of parameter estimation using amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) with neural networks. To this end, we conduct systematic analyses on a toy example and analyze both synthetic and real data using a popular cognitive model, the Drift Diffusion Models (DDM). First, we study the sensitivity of ABI to contaminants with tools from robust statistics: the empirical influence function and the breakdown point. Next, we propose a data augmentation or noise injection approach that incorporates a contamination distribution into the data-generating process during training. We examine several candidate distributions and evaluate their performance and cost in terms of accuracy and efficiency loss relative to a standard estimator. Introducing contaminants from a Cauchy distribution during training considerably increases the robustness of the neural density estimator as measured by bounded influence functions and a much higher breakdown point. Overall, the proposed method is straightforward and practical to implement and has a broad applicability in fields where outlier detection or removal is challenging.
As electronic systems become increasingly complex and prevalent in modern vehicles, securing onboard networks is crucial, particularly as many of these systems are safety-critical. Researchers have demonstrated that modern vehicles are susceptible to various types of attacks, enabling attackers to gain control and compromise safety-critical electronic systems. Consequently, several Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) have been proposed in the literature to detect such cyber-attacks on vehicles. This paper introduces a novel generative classifier-based Intrusion Detection System (IDS) designed for anomaly detection in automotive networks, specifically focusing on the Controller Area Network (CAN). Leveraging variational Bayes, our proposed IDS utilizes a deep latent variable model to construct a causal graph for conditional probabilities. An auto-encoder architecture is utilized to build the classifier to estimate conditional probabilities, which contribute to the final prediction probabilities through Bayesian inference. Comparative evaluations against state-of-the-art IDSs on a public Car-hacking dataset highlight our proposed classifier's superior performance in improving detection accuracy and F1-score. The proposed IDS demonstrates its efficacy by outperforming existing models with limited training data, providing enhanced security assurance for automotive systems.
This work considers a spatial non-stationary channel tracking problem in broadband extremely large-scale multiple-input-multiple-output (XL-MIMO) systems. In the case of spatial non-stationary, each scatterer has a certain visibility region (VR) over antennas and power change may occur among visible antennas. Concentrating on the temporal correlation of XL-MIMO channels, we design a three-layer Markov prior model and hierarchical two-dimensional (2D) Markov model to exploit the dynamic sparsity of sparse channel vectors and VRs, respectively. Then, we formulate the channel tracking problem as a bilinear measurement process, and a novel dynamic alternating maximum a posteriori (DA-MAP) framework is developed to solve the problem. The DA-MAP contains four basic modules: channel estimation module, VR detection module, grid update module, and temporal correlated module. Specifically, the first module is an inverse-free variational Bayesian inference (IF-VBI) estimator that avoids computational intensive matrix inverse each iteration; the second module is a turbo compressive sensing (Turbo-CS) algorithm that only needs small-scale matrix operations in a parallel fashion; the third module refines the polar-delay domain grid; and the fourth module can process the temporal prior information to ensure high-efficiency channel tracking. Simulations show that the proposed method can achieve a significant channel tracking performance while achieving low computational overhead.
Tensor Robust Principal Component Analysis (TRPCA) holds a crucial position in machine learning and computer vision. It aims to recover underlying low-rank structures and characterizing the sparse structures of noise. Current approaches often encounter difficulties in accurately capturing the low-rank properties of tensors and balancing the trade-off between low-rank and sparse components, especially in a mixed-noise scenario. To address these challenges, we introduce a Bayesian framework for TRPCA, which integrates a low-rank tensor nuclear norm prior and a generalized sparsity-inducing prior. By embedding the proposed priors within the Bayesian framework, our method can automatically determine the optimal tensor nuclear norm and achieve a balance between the nuclear norm and sparse components. Furthermore, our method can be efficiently extended to the weighted tensor nuclear norm model. Experiments conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our method compared to state-of-the-art approaches.
Gene silencing via small interfering RNA (siRNA) represents a transformative tool in cancer therapy, offering specificity and reduced off-target effects compared to conventional treatments. A crucial step in siRNA-based therapies is endosomal escape, the release of siRNA from endosomes into the cytoplasm. Quantifying endosomal escape is challenging due to the dynamic nature of the process and limitations in imaging and analytical techniques. Traditional methods often rely on fluorescence intensity measurements or manual image processing, which are time-intensive and fail to capture continuous dynamics. This paper presents a novel computational framework that integrates automated image processing to analyze time-lapse fluorescent microscopy data of endosomal escape, hierarchical Bayesian inference, and stochastic simulations. Our method employs image segmentation techniques such as binary masks, Gaussian filters, and multichannel color quantification to extract precise spatial and temporal data from microscopy images. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we estimate the parameters of a compartmental model that describes endosomal escape dynamics, accounting for variability over time. These parameters inform a Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm, ensuring realistic simulations of siRNA release events over time. Our framework provides a scalable and reproducible method for quantifying endosomal escape. The model captures uncertainty and variability in parameter estimation, and endosomal escape dynamics. Additionally, synthetic data generation allows researchers to validate experimental findings and explore alternative conditions without extensive laboratory work. This integrated approach not only improves the accuracy of endosomal escape quantification but also provides predictive insights for optimizing siRNA delivery systems and advancing gene therapy research.
Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) is a powerful method for evaluating high-dimensional integrals. However, its use is typically limited to distributions where direct sampling is straightforward, such as the uniform distribution on the unit hypercube or the Gaussian distribution. For general target distributions with potentially unnormalized densities, leveraging the low-discrepancy property of QMC to improve accuracy remains challenging. We propose training a transport map to push forward the uniform distribution on the unit hypercube to approximate the target distribution. Inspired by normalizing flows, the transport map is constructed as a composition of simple, invertible transformations. To ensure that RQMC achieves its superior error rate, the transport map must satisfy specific regularity conditions. We introduce a flexible parametrization for the transport map that not only meets these conditions but is also expressive enough to model complex distributions. Our theoretical analysis establishes that the proposed transport QMC estimator achieves faster convergence rates than standard Monte Carlo, under mild and easily verifiable growth conditions on the integrand. Numerical experiments confirm the theoretical results, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method in Bayesian inference tasks.
Adaptive Traffic Signal Control (ATSC) system is a critical component of intelligent transportation, with the capability to significantly alleviate urban traffic congestion. Although reinforcement learning (RL)-based methods have demonstrated promising performance in achieving ATSC, existing methods are still prone to making unreasonable policies. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel Bayesian Critique-Tune-Based Reinforcement Learning with Adaptive Pressure for multi-intersection signal control (BCT-APLight). In BCT-APLight, the Critique-Tune (CT) framework, a two-layer Bayesian structure is designed to refine the excessive trust of RL policies. Specifically, the Bayesian inference-based Critique Layer provides effective evaluations of the credibility of policies; the Bayesian decision-based Tune Layer fine-tunes policies by minimizing the posterior risks when the evaluations are negative. Meanwhile, an attention-based Adaptive Pressure (AP) mechanism is designed to effectively weight the vehicle queues in each lane, thereby enhancing the rationality of traffic movement representation within the network. Equipped with the CT framework and AP mechanism, BCT-APLight effectively enhances the reasonableness of RL policies. Extensive experiments conducted with a simulator across a range of intersection layouts demonstrate that BCT-APLight is superior to other state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods on seven real-world datasets. Specifically, BCT-APLight decreases average queue length by \textbf{\(\boldsymbol{9.60\%}\)} and average waiting time by \textbf{\(\boldsymbol{15.28\%}\)}.
Bayesian inference in function space has gained attention due to its robustness against overparameterization in neural networks. However, approximating the infinite-dimensional function space introduces several challenges. In this work, we discuss function space inference via particle optimization and present practical modifications that improve uncertainty estimation and, most importantly, make it applicable for large and pretrained networks. First, we demonstrate that the input samples, where particle predictions are enforced to be diverse, are detrimental to the model performance. While diversity on training data itself can lead to underfitting, the use of label-destroying data augmentation, or unlabeled out-of-distribution data can improve prediction diversity and uncertainty estimates. Furthermore, we take advantage of the function space formulation, which imposes no restrictions on network parameterization other than sufficient flexibility. Instead of using full deep ensembles to represent particles, we propose a single multi-headed network that introduces a minimal increase in parameters and computation. This allows seamless integration to pretrained networks, where this repulsive last-layer ensemble can be used for uncertainty aware fine-tuning at minimal additional cost. We achieve competitive results in disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for active learning, detecting out-of-domain data, and providing calibrated uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts with minimal compute and memory.
This paper introduces posterior mean matching (PMM), a new method for generative modeling that is grounded in Bayesian inference. PMM uses conjugate pairs of distributions to model complex data of various modalities like images and text, offering a flexible alternative to existing methods like diffusion models. PMM models iteratively refine noisy approximations of the target distribution using updates from online Bayesian inference. PMM is flexible because its mechanics are based on general Bayesian models. We demonstrate this flexibility by developing specialized examples: a generative PMM model of real-valued data using the Normal-Normal model, a generative PMM model of count data using a Gamma-Poisson model, and a generative PMM model of discrete data using a Dirichlet-Categorical model. For the Normal-Normal PMM model, we establish a direct connection to diffusion models by showing that its continuous-time formulation converges to a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Additionally, for the Gamma-Poisson PMM, we derive a novel SDE driven by a Cox process, which is a significant departure from traditional Brownian motion-based generative models. PMMs achieve performance that is competitive with generative models for language modeling and image generation.
In two-player cooperative games, agents can play together effectively when they have accurate assumptions about how their teammate will behave, but may perform poorly when these assumptions are inaccurate. In language games, failure may be due to disagreement in the understanding of either the semantics or pragmatics of an utterance. We model coarse uncertainty in semantics using a prior distribution of language models and uncertainty in pragmatics using the cognitive hierarchy, combining the two aspects into a single prior distribution over possible partner types. Fine-grained uncertainty in semantics is modeled using noise that is added to the embeddings of words in the language. To handle all forms of uncertainty we construct agents that learn the behavior of their partner using Bayesian inference and use this information to maximize the expected value of a heuristic function. We test this approach by constructing Bayesian agents for the game of Codenames, and show that they perform better in experiments where semantics is uncertain
Sequential problems are ubiquitous in AI, such as in reinforcement learning or natural language processing. State-of-the-art deep sequential models, like transformers, excel in these settings but fail to guarantee the satisfaction of constraints necessary for trustworthy deployment. In contrast, neurosymbolic AI (NeSy) provides a sound formalism to enforce constraints in deep probabilistic models but scales exponentially on sequential problems. To overcome these limitations, we introduce relational neurosymbolic Markov models (NeSy-MMs), a new class of end-to-end differentiable sequential models that integrate and provably satisfy relational logical constraints. We propose a strategy for inference and learning that scales on sequential settings, and that combines approximate Bayesian inference, automated reasoning, and gradient estimation. Our experiments show that NeSy-MMs can solve problems beyond the current state-of-the-art in neurosymbolic AI and still provide strong guarantees with respect to desired properties. Moreover, we show that our models are more interpretable and that constraints can be adapted at test time to out-of-distribution scenarios.
Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for scientific data analysis. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we study nonparametrically perturbed parametric (NPP) Bayesian models, in which a parametric Bayesian model is relaxed via a distortion of its likelihood. We analyze the properties of NPP models when the target of inference is the true data distribution or some functional of it, such as in causal inference. We show that NPP models can offer the robustness of nonparametric models while retaining the data efficiency of parametric models, achieving fast convergence when the parametric model is close to true. To efficiently analyze data with an NPP model, we develop a generalized Bayes procedure to approximate its posterior. We demonstrate our method by estimating causal effects of gene expression from single cell RNA sequencing data. NPP modeling offers an efficient approach to robust Bayesian inference and can be used to robustify any parametric Bayesian model.
Tree-based priors for probability distributions are usually specified using a predetermined, data-independent collection of candidate recursive partitions of the sample space. To characterize an unknown target density in detail over the entire sample space, candidate partitions must have the capacity to expand deeply into all areas of the sample space with potential non-zero sampling probability. Such an expansive system of partitions often incurs prohibitive computational costs and makes inference prone to overfitting, especially in regions with little probability mass. Thus, existing models typically make a compromise and rely on relatively shallow trees. This hampers one of the most desirable features of trees, their ability to characterize local features, and results in reduced statistical efficiency. Traditional wisdom suggests that this compromise is inevitable to ensure coherent likelihood-based reasoning in Bayesian inference, as a data-dependent partition system that allows deeper expansion only in regions with more observations would induce double dipping of the data. We propose a simple strategy to restore coherency while allowing the candidate partitions to be data-dependent, using Cox's partial likelihood. Our partial likelihood approach is broadly applicable to existing likelihood-based methods and, in particular, to Bayesian inference on tree-based models. We give examples in density estimation in which the partial likelihood is endowed with existing priors on tree-based models and compare with the standard, full-likelihood approach. The results show substantial gains in estimation accuracy and computational efficiency from adopting the partial likelihood.
We solve a Bayesian inverse Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) problem that assimilates mean flow data by jointly reconstructing the mean flow field and learning its unknown RANS parameters. We devise an algorithm that learns the most likely parameters of an algebraic effective viscosity model, and estimates their uncertainties, from mean flow data of a turbulent flow. We conduct a flow MRI experiment to obtain mean flow data of a confined turbulent jet in an idealized medical device known as the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) nozzle. The algorithm successfully reconstructs the mean flow field and learns the most likely turbulence model parameters without overfitting. The methodology accepts any turbulence model, be it algebraic (explicit) or multi-equation (implicit), as long as the model is differentiable, and naturally extends to unsteady turbulent flows.
Federated learning (FL) is a widely used and impactful distributed optimization framework that achieves consensus through averaging locally trained models. While effective, this approach may not align well with Bayesian inference, where the model space has the structure of a distribution space. Taking an information-geometric perspective, we reinterpret FL aggregation as the problem of finding the barycenter of local posteriors using a prespecified divergence metric, minimizing the average discrepancy across clients. This perspective provides a unifying framework that generalizes many existing methods and offers crisp insights into their theoretical underpinnings. We then propose BA-BFL, an algorithm that retains the convergence properties of Federated Averaging in non-convex settings. In non-independent and identically distributed scenarios, we conduct extensive comparisons with statistical aggregation techniques, showing that BA-BFL achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods while offering a geometric interpretation of the aggregation phase. Additionally, we extend our analysis to Hybrid Bayesian Deep Learning, exploring the impact of Bayesian layers on uncertainty quantification and model calibration.
The emergence of large pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs) represents a paradigm shift in machine learning, with unprecedented results in a broad span of visual recognition tasks. CLIP, one of the most popular VLMs, has exhibited remarkable zero-shot and transfer learning capabilities in classification. To transfer CLIP to downstream tasks, adapters constitute a parameter-efficient approach that avoids backpropagation through the large model (unlike related prompt learning methods). However, CLIP adapters have been developed to target discriminative performance, and the quality of their uncertainty estimates has been overlooked. In this work we show that the discriminative performance of state-of-the-art CLIP adapters does not always correlate with their uncertainty estimation capabilities, which are essential for a safe deployment in real-world scenarios. We also demonstrate that one of such adapters is obtained through MAP inference from a more general probabilistic framework. Based on this observation we introduce BayesAdapter, which leverages Bayesian inference to estimate a full probability distribution instead of a single point, better capturing the variability inherent in the parameter space. In a comprehensive empirical evaluation we show that our approach obtains high quality uncertainty estimates in the predictions, standing out in calibration and selective classification. Our code will be publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.
Brains perform decision-making by Bayes theorem. The theorem quantifies events as probabilities and, based on probability rules, renders the decisions. Learning from this, Bayes theorem can be applied to enable efficient user-scene interactions. However, given the probabilistic nature, implementing Bayes theorem in hardware using conventional deterministic computing can incur excessive computational cost and decision latency. Though challenging, here we present a probabilistic computing approach based on memristors to implement the Bayes theorem. We integrate memristors with Boolean logics and, by exploiting the volatile stochastic switching of the memristors, realise probabilistic logic operations, key for hardware Bayes theorem implementation. To empirically validate the efficacy of the hardware Bayes theorem in user-scene interactions, we develop lightweight Bayesian inference and fusion hardware operators using the probabilistic logics and apply the operators in road scene parsing for self-driving, including route planning and obstacle detection. The results show our operators can achieve reliable decisions in less than 0.4 ms (or equivalently 2,500 fps), outperforming human decision-making and the existing driving assistance systems.
Pedestrian detection is a critical task in autonomous driving, aimed at enhancing safety and reducing risks on the road. Over recent years, significant advancements have been made in improving detection performance. However, these achievements still fall short of human perception, particularly in cases involving occluded pedestrians, especially entirely invisible ones. In this work, we present the Occlusion-Rich Road Scenes with Pedestrians (OccluRoads) dataset, which features a diverse collection of road scenes with partially and fully occluded pedestrians in both real and virtual environments. All scenes are meticulously labeled and enriched with contextual information that encapsulates human perception in such scenarios. Using this dataset, we developed a pipeline to predict the presence of occluded pedestrians, leveraging Knowledge Graph (KG), Knowledge Graph Embedding (KGE), and a Bayesian inference process. Our approach achieves a F1 score of 0.91, representing an improvement of up to 42% compared to traditional machine learning models.
This paper studies semiparametric Bayesian inference for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) research design. We propose two new Bayesian methods with frequentist validity. The first one places a standard Gaussian process prior on the conditional mean function of the control group. The second method is a double robust Bayesian procedure that adjusts the prior distribution of the conditional mean function and subsequently corrects the posterior distribution of the resulting ATT. We prove new semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorems for both proposals. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian DiD methods exhibit strong finite-sample performance compared to existing frequentist methods. We also present extensions of the canonical DiD approach, incorporating both the staggered design and the repeated cross-sectional design.
We introduce a novel algorithm for controlling linear time invariant systems in a tracking problem. The controller is based on a Gaussian Process (GP) whose realizations satisfy a system of linear ordinary differential equations with constant coefficients. Control inputs for tracking are determined by conditioning the prior GP on the setpoints, i.e. control as inference. The resulting Model Predictive Control scheme incorporates pointwise soft constraints by introducing virtual setpoints to the posterior Gaussian process. We show theoretically that our controller satisfies asymptotical stability for the optimal control problem by leveraging general results from Bayesian inference and demonstrate this result in a numerical example.