The variational framework for learning inducing variables (Titsias, 2009a) has had a large impact on the Gaussian process literature. The framework may be interpreted as minimizing a rigorously defined Kullback-Leibler divergence between the approximating and posterior processes. To our knowledge this connection has thus far gone unremarked in the literature. In this paper we give a substantial generalization of the literature on this topic. We give a new proof of the result for infinite index sets which allows inducing points that are not data points and likelihoods that depend on all function values. We then discuss augmented index sets and show that, contrary to previous works, marginal consistency of augmentation is not enough to guarantee consistency of variational inference with the original model. We then characterize an extra condition where such a guarantee is obtainable. Finally we show how our framework sheds light on interdomain sparse approximations and sparse approximations for Cox processes.
Approximate inference in high-dimensional, discrete probabilistic models is a central problem in computational statistics and machine learning. This paper describes discrete particle variational inference (DPVI), a new approach that combines key strengths of Monte Carlo, variational and search-based techniques. DPVI is based on a novel family of particle-based variational approximations that can be fit using simple, fast, deterministic search techniques. Like Monte Carlo, DPVI can handle multiple modes, and yields exact results in a well-defined limit. Like unstructured mean-field, DPVI is based on optimizing a lower bound on the partition function; when this quantity is not of intrinsic interest, it facilitates convergence assessment and debugging. Like both Monte Carlo and combinatorial search, DPVI can take advantage of factorization, sequential structure, and custom search operators. This paper defines DPVI particle-based approximation family and partition function lower bounds, along with the sequential DPVI and local DPVI algorithm templates for optimizing them. DPVI is illustrated and evaluated via experiments on lattice Markov Random Fields, nonparametric Bayesian mixtures and block-models, and parametric as well as non-parametric hidden Markov models. Results include applications to real-world spike-sorting and relational modeling problems, and show that DPVI can offer appealing time/accuracy trade-offs as compared to multiple alternatives.
Online discussion forums are complex webs of overlapping subcommunities (macrolevel structure, across threads) in which users enact different roles depending on which subcommunity they are participating in within a particular time point (microlevel structure, within threads). This sub-network structure is implicit in massive collections of threads. To uncover this structure, we develop a scalable algorithm based on stochastic variational inference and leverage topic models (LDA) along with mixed membership stochastic block (MMSB) models. We evaluate our model on three large-scale datasets, Cancer-ThreadStarter (22K users and 14.4K threads), Cancer-NameMention(15.1K users and 12.4K threads) and StackOverFlow (1.19 million users and 4.55 million threads). Qualitatively, we demonstrate that our model can provide useful explanations of microlevel and macrolevel user presentation characteristics in different communities using the topics discovered from posts. Quantitatively, we show that our model does better than MMSB and LDA in predicting user reply structure within threads. In addition, we demonstrate via synthetic data experiments that the proposed active sub-network discovery model is stable and recovers the original parameters of the experimental setup with high probability.
Dyadic Data Prediction (DDP) is an important problem in many research areas. This paper develops a novel fully Bayesian nonparametric framework which integrates two popular and complementary approaches, discrete mixed membership modeling and continuous latent factor modeling into a unified Heterogeneous Matrix Factorization~(HeMF) model, which can predict the unobserved dyadics accurately. The HeMF can determine the number of communities automatically and exploit the latent linear structure for each bicluster efficiently. We propose a Variational Bayesian method to estimate the parameters and missing data. We further develop a novel online learning approach for Variational inference and use it for the online learning of HeMF, which can efficiently cope with the important large-scale DDP problem. We evaluate the performance of our method on the EachMoive, MovieLens and Netflix Prize collaborative filtering datasets. The experiment shows that, our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods on all benchmarks. Compared with Stochastic Gradient Method (SGD), our online learning approach achieves significant improvement on the estimation accuracy and robustness.
Most existing image denoising approaches assumed the noise to be homogeneous white Gaussian distributed with known intensity. However, in real noisy images, the noise models are usually unknown beforehand and can be much more complex. This paper addresses this problem and proposes a novel blind image denoising algorithm to recover the clean image from noisy one with the unknown noise model. To model the empirical noise of an image, our method introduces the mixture of Gaussian distribution, which is flexible enough to approximate different continuous distributions. The problem of blind image denoising is reformulated as a learning problem. The procedure is to first build a two-layer structural model for noisy patches and consider the clean ones as latent variable. To control the complexity of the noisy patch model, this work proposes a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior called "Dependent Dirichlet Process Tree" to build the model. Then, this study derives a variational inference algorithm to estimate model parameters and recover clean patches. We apply our method on synthesis and real noisy images with different noise models. Comparing with previous approaches, ours achieves better performance. The experimental results indicate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm to cope with practical image denoising tasks.
Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) work well on large datasets. But labelled data is hard to collect, and in some applications larger amounts of data are not available. The problem then is how to use CNNs with small data -- as CNNs overfit quickly. We present an efficient Bayesian CNN, offering better robustness to over-fitting on small data than traditional approaches. This is by placing a probability distribution over the CNN's kernels. We approximate our model's intractable posterior with Bernoulli variational distributions, requiring no additional model parameters. On the theoretical side, we cast dropout network training as approximate inference in Bayesian neural networks. This allows us to implement our model using existing tools in deep learning with no increase in time complexity, while highlighting a negative result in the field. We show a considerable improvement in classification accuracy compared to standard techniques and improve on published state-of-the-art results for CIFAR-10.
We study the problem of training an accurate linear regression model by procuring labels from multiple noisy crowd annotators, under a budget constraint. We propose a Bayesian model for linear regression in crowdsourcing and use variational inference for parameter estimation. To minimize the number of labels crowdsourced from the annotators, we adopt an active learning approach. In this specific context, we prove the equivalence of well-studied criteria of active learning like entropy minimization and expected error reduction. Interestingly, we observe that we can decouple the problems of identifying an optimal unlabeled instance and identifying an annotator to label it. We observe a useful connection between the multi-armed bandit framework and the annotator selection in active learning. Due to the nature of the distribution of the rewards on the arms, we use the Robust Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) scheme with truncated empirical mean estimator to solve the annotator selection problem. This yields provable guarantees on the regret. We further apply our model to the scenario where annotators are strategic and design suitable incentives to induce them to put in their best efforts.
Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is an important algorithm in machine learning. With constant learning rates, it is a stochastic process that, after an initial phase of convergence, generates samples from a stationary distribution. We show that SGD with constant rates can be effectively used as an approximate posterior inference algorithm for probabilistic modeling. Specifically, we show how to adjust the tuning parameters of SGD such as to match the resulting stationary distribution to the posterior. This analysis rests on interpreting SGD as a continuous-time stochastic process and then minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between its stationary distribution and the target posterior. (This is in the spirit of variational inference.) In more detail, we model SGD as a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and then use properties of this process to derive the optimal parameters. This theoretical framework also connects SGD to modern scalable inference algorithms; we analyze the recently proposed stochastic gradient Fisher scoring under this perspective. We demonstrate that SGD with properly chosen constant rates gives a new way to optimize hyperparameters in probabilistic models.
Link prediction is a fundamental task in statistical network analysis. Recent advances have been made on learning flexible nonparametric Bayesian latent feature models for link prediction. In this paper, we present a max-margin learning method for such nonparametric latent feature relational models. Our approach attempts to unite the ideas of max-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametrics to discover discriminative latent features for link prediction. It inherits the advances of nonparametric Bayesian methods to infer the unknown latent social dimension, while for discriminative link prediction, it adopts the max-margin learning principle by minimizing a hinge-loss using the linear expectation operator, without dealing with a highly nonlinear link likelihood function. For posterior inference, we develop an efficient stochastic variational inference algorithm under a truncated mean-field assumption. Our methods can scale up to large-scale real networks with millions of entities and tens of millions of positive links. We also provide a full Bayesian formulation, which can avoid tuning regularization hyper-parameters. Experimental results on a diverse range of real datasets demonstrate the benefits inherited from max-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametric inference.
In this note we present a generative model of natural images consisting of a deep hierarchy of layers of latent random variables, each of which follows a new type of distribution that we call rectified Gaussian. These rectified Gaussian units allow spike-and-slab type sparsity, while retaining the differentiability necessary for efficient stochastic gradient variational inference. To learn the parameters of the new model, we approximate the posterior of the latent variables with a variational auto-encoder. Rather than making the usual mean-field assumption however, the encoder parameterizes a new type of structured variational approximation that retains the prior dependencies of the generative model. Using this structured posterior approximation, we are able to perform joint training of deep models with many layers of latent random variables, without having to resort to stacking or other layerwise training procedures.
We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use importance sampling to take samples from an overdispersed distribution in the same exponential family as the variational approximation. Our approach is general since it can be readily applied to any exponential family distribution, which is the typical choice for the variational approximation. We run experiments on two non-conjugate probabilistic models to show that our method effectively reduces the variance, and the overhead introduced by the computation of the proposal parameters and the importance weights is negligible. We find that our overdispersed importance sampling scheme provides lower variance than black-box variational inference, even when the latter uses twice the number of samples. This results in faster convergence of the black-box inference procedure.
Probabilistic modeling is iterative. A scientist posits a simple model, fits it to her data, refines it according to her analysis, and repeats. However, fitting complex models to large data is a bottleneck in this process. Deriving algorithms for new models can be both mathematically and computationally challenging, which makes it difficult to efficiently cycle through the steps. To this end, we develop automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI). Using our method, the scientist only provides a probabilistic model and a dataset, nothing else. ADVI automatically derives an efficient variational inference algorithm, freeing the scientist to refine and explore many models. ADVI supports a broad class of models-no conjugacy assumptions are required. We study ADVI across ten different models and apply it to a dataset with millions of observations. ADVI is integrated into Stan, a probabilistic programming system; it is available for immediate use.
We develop a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach for fast parameter estimation in a new class of Dirichlet latent variable models with mixed data types. Parameter estimation via GMM has been demonstrated to have computational and statistical advantages over alternative methods, such as expectation maximization, variational inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The key computational advan- tage of our method (MELD) is that parameter estimation does not require instantiation of the latent variables. Moreover, a representational advantage of the GMM approach is that the behavior of the model is agnostic to distributional assumptions of the observations. We derive population moment conditions after marginalizing out the sample-specific Dirichlet latent variables. The moment conditions only depend on component mean parameters. We illustrate the utility of our approach on simulated data, comparing results from MELD to alternative methods, and we show the promise of our approach through the application of MELD to several data sets.
Traditional topic models do not account for semantic regularities in language. Recent distributional representations of words exhibit semantic consistency over directional metrics such as cosine similarity. However, neither categorical nor Gaussian observational distributions used in existing topic models are appropriate to leverage such correlations. In this paper, we propose to use the von Mises-Fisher distribution to model the density of words over a unit sphere. Such a representation is well-suited for directional data. We use a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process for our base topic model and propose an efficient inference algorithm based on Stochastic Variational Inference. This model enables us to naturally exploit the semantic structures of word embeddings while flexibly discovering the number of topics. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms competitive approaches in terms of topic coherence on two different text corpora while offering efficient inference.
Variational inference is a powerful tool for approximate inference, and it has been recently applied for representation learning with deep generative models. We develop the variational Gaussian process (VGP), a Bayesian nonparametric variational family, which adapts its shape to match complex posterior distributions. The VGP generates approximate posterior samples by generating latent inputs and warping them through random non-linear mappings; the distribution over random mappings is learned during inference, enabling the transformed outputs to adapt to varying complexity. We prove a universal approximation theorem for the VGP, demonstrating its representative power for learning any model. For inference we present a variational objective inspired by auto-encoders and perform black box inference over a wide class of models. The VGP achieves new state-of-the-art results for unsupervised learning, inferring models such as the deep latent Gaussian model and the recently proposed DRAW.
The detection of rare variants is important for understanding the genetic heterogeneity in mixed samples. Recently, next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies have enabled the identification of single nucleotide variants (SNVs) in mixed samples with high resolution. Yet, the noise inherent in the biological processes involved in next-generation sequencing necessitates the use of statistical methods to identify true rare variants. We propose a novel Bayesian statistical model and a variational expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate non-reference allele frequency (NRAF) and identify SNVs in heterogeneous cell populations. We demonstrate that our variational EM algorithm has comparable sensitivity and specificity compared with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling inference algorithm, and is more computationally efficient on tests of low coverage ($27\times$ and $298\times$) data. Furthermore, we show that our model with a variational EM inference algorithm has higher specificity than many state-of-the-art algorithms. In an analysis of a directed evolution longitudinal yeast data set, we are able to identify a time-series trend in non-reference allele frequency and detect novel variants that have not yet been reported. Our model also detects the emergence of a beneficial variant earlier than was previously shown, and a pair of concomitant variants.
Variational inference provides approximations to the computationally intractable posterior distribution in Bayesian networks. A prominent medical application of noisy-or Bayesian network is to infer potential diseases given observed symptoms. Previous studies focus on approximating a handful of complicated pathological cases using variational transformation. Our goal is to use variational transformation as part of a novel hybridized inference for serving reliable and real time diagnosis at web scale. We propose a hybridized inference that allows variational parameters to be estimated without disease posteriors or priors, making the inference faster and much of its computation recyclable. In addition, we propose a transformation ranking algorithm that is very stable to large variances in network prior probabilities, a common issue that arises in medical applications of Bayesian networks. In experiments, we perform comparative study on a large real life medical network and scalability study on a much larger (36,000x) synthesized network.
In this paper, we propose the "adversarial autoencoder" (AAE), which is a probabilistic autoencoder that uses the recently proposed generative adversarial networks (GAN) to perform variational inference by matching the aggregated posterior of the hidden code vector of the autoencoder with an arbitrary prior distribution. Matching the aggregated posterior to the prior ensures that generating from any part of prior space results in meaningful samples. As a result, the decoder of the adversarial autoencoder learns a deep generative model that maps the imposed prior to the data distribution. We show how the adversarial autoencoder can be used in applications such as semi-supervised classification, disentangling style and content of images, unsupervised clustering, dimensionality reduction and data visualization. We performed experiments on MNIST, Street View House Numbers and Toronto Face datasets and show that adversarial autoencoders achieve competitive results in generative modeling and semi-supervised classification tasks.
Variational inference (VI) combined with data subsampling enables approximate posterior inference over large data sets, but suffers from poor local optima. We first formulate a deterministic annealing approach for the generic class of conditionally conjugate exponential family models. This approach uses a decreasing temperature parameter which deterministically deforms the objective during the course of the optimization. A well-known drawback to this annealing approach is the choice of the cooling schedule. We therefore introduce variational tempering, a variational algorithm that introduces a temperature latent variable to the model. In contrast to related work in the Markov chain Monte Carlo literature, this algorithm results in adaptive annealing schedules. Lastly, we develop local variational tempering, which assigns a latent temperature to each data point; this allows for dynamic annealing that varies across data. Compared to the traditional VI, all proposed approaches find improved predictive likelihoods on held-out data.
Recent progress in deep latent variable models has largely been driven by the development of flexible and scalable variational inference methods. Variational training of this type involves maximizing a lower bound on the log-likelihood, using samples from the variational posterior to compute the required gradients. Recently, Burda et al. (2016) have derived a tighter lower bound using a multi-sample importance sampling estimate of the likelihood and showed that optimizing it yields models that use more of their capacity and achieve higher likelihoods. This development showed the importance of such multi-sample objectives and explained the success of several related approaches. We extend the multi-sample approach to discrete latent variables and analyze the difficulty encountered when estimating the gradients involved. We then develop the first unbiased gradient estimator designed for importance-sampled objectives and evaluate it at training generative and structured output prediction models. The resulting estimator, which is based on low-variance per-sample learning signals, is both simpler and more effective than the NVIL estimator proposed for the single-sample variational objective, and is competitive with the currently used biased estimators.