Models for recommender systems use latent factors to explain the preferences and behaviors of users with respect to a set of items (e.g., movies, books, academic papers). Typically, the latent factors are assumed to be static and, given these factors, the observed preferences and behaviors of users are assumed to be generated without order. These assumptions limit the explorative and predictive capabilities of such models, since users' interests and item popularity may evolve over time. To address this, we propose dPF, a dynamic matrix factorization model based on the recent Poisson factorization model for recommendations. dPF models the time evolving latent factors with a Kalman filter and the actions with Poisson distributions. We derive a scalable variational inference algorithm to infer the latent factors. Finally, we demonstrate dPF on 10 years of user click data from arXiv.org, one of the largest repository of scientific papers and a formidable source of information about the behavior of scientists. Empirically we show performance improvement over both static and, more recently proposed, dynamic recommendation models. We also provide a thorough exploration of the inferred posteriors over the latent variables.
Unsupervised feature learning algorithms based on convolutional formulations of independent components analysis (ICA) have been demonstrated to yield state-of-the-art results in several action recognition benchmarks. However, existing approaches do not allow for the number of latent components (features) to be automatically inferred from the data in an unsupervised manner. This is a significant disadvantage of the state-of-the-art, as it results in considerable burden imposed on researchers and practitioners, who must resort to tedious cross-validation procedures to obtain the optimal number of latent features. To resolve these issues, in this paper we introduce a convolutional nonparametric Bayesian sparse ICA architecture for overcomplete feature learning from high-dimensional data. Our method utilizes an Indian buffet process prior to facilitate inference of the appropriate number of latent features under a hybrid variational inference algorithm, scalable to massive datasets. As we show, our model can be naturally used to obtain deep unsupervised hierarchical feature extractors, by greedily stacking successive model layers, similar to existing approaches. In addition, inference for this model is completely heuristics-free; thus, it obviates the need of tedious parameter tuning, which is a major challenge most deep learning approaches are faced with. We evaluate our method on several action recognition benchmarks, and exhibit its advantages over the state-of-the-art.
The mutual information is a core statistical quantity that has applications in all areas of machine learning, whether this is in training of density models over multiple data modalities, in maximising the efficiency of noisy transmission channels, or when learning behaviour policies for exploration by artificial agents. Most learning algorithms that involve optimisation of the mutual information rely on the Blahut-Arimoto algorithm --- an enumerative algorithm with exponential complexity that is not suitable for modern machine learning applications. This paper provides a new approach for scalable optimisation of the mutual information by merging techniques from variational inference and deep learning. We develop our approach by focusing on the problem of intrinsically-motivated learning, where the mutual information forms the definition of a well-known internal drive known as empowerment. Using a variational lower bound on the mutual information, combined with convolutional networks for handling visual input streams, we develop a stochastic optimisation algorithm that allows for scalable information maximisation and empowerment-based reasoning directly from pixels to actions.
Information projections are the key building block of variational inference algorithms and are used to approximate a target probabilistic model by projecting it onto a family of tractable distributions. In general, there is no guarantee on the quality of the approximation obtained. To overcome this issue, we introduce a new class of random projections to reduce the dimensionality and hence the complexity of the original model. In the spirit of random projections, the projection preserves (with high probability) key properties of the target distribution. We show that information projections can be combined with random projections to obtain provable guarantees on the quality of the approximation obtained, regardless of the complexity of the original model. We demonstrate empirically that augmenting mean field with a random projection step dramatically improves partition function and marginal probability estimates, both on synthetic and real world data.
We develop a parallel variational inference (VI) procedure for use in data-distributed settings, where each machine only has access to a subset of data and runs VI independently, without communicating with other machines. This type of "embarrassingly parallel" procedure has recently been developed for MCMC inference algorithms; however, in many cases it is not possible to directly extend this procedure to VI methods without requiring certain restrictive exponential family conditions on the form of the model. Furthermore, most existing (nonparallel) VI methods are restricted to use on conditionally conjugate models, which limits their applicability. To combat these issues, we make use of the recently proposed nonparametric VI to facilitate an embarrassingly parallel VI procedure that can be applied to a wider scope of models, including to nonconjugate models. We derive our embarrassingly parallel VI algorithm, analyze our method theoretically, and demonstrate our method empirically on a few nonconjugate models.
We propose a novel method for multiple clustering that assumes a co-clustering structure (partitions in both rows and columns of the data matrix) in each view. The new method is applicable to high-dimensional data. It is based on a nonparametric Bayesian approach in which the number of views and the number of feature-/subject clusters are inferred in a data-driven manner. We simultaneously model different distribution families, such as Gaussian, Poisson, and multinomial distributions in each cluster block. This makes our method applicable to datasets consisting of both numerical and categorical variables, which biomedical data typically do. Clustering solutions are based on variational inference with mean field approximation. We apply the proposed method to synthetic and real data, and show that our method outperforms other multiple clustering methods both in recovering true cluster structures and in computation time. Finally, we apply our method to a depression dataset with no true cluster structure available, from which useful inferences are drawn about possible clustering structures of the data.
As part of daily monitoring of human activities, wearable sensors and devices are becoming increasingly popular sources of data. With the advent of smartphones equipped with acceloremeter, gyroscope and camera; it is now possible to develop activity classification platforms everyone can use conveniently. In this paper, we propose a fast inference method for an unsupervised non-parametric time series model namely variational inference for sticky HDP-SLDS(Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Switching Linear Dynamical System). We show that the proposed algorithm can differentiate various indoor activities such as sitting, walking, turning, going up/down the stairs and taking the elevator using only the acceloremeter of an Android smartphone Samsung Galaxy S4. We used the front camera of the smartphone to annotate activity types precisely. We compared the proposed method with Hidden Markov Models with Gaussian emission probabilities on a dataset of 10 subjects. We showed that the efficacy of the stickiness property. We further compared the variational inference to the Gibbs sampler on the same model and show that variational inference is faster in one order of magnitude.
We propose a stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) algorithm for scalable inference in mixed-membership stochastic blockmodels (MMSB). Our algorithm is based on the stochastic gradient Riemannian Langevin sampler and achieves both faster speed and higher accuracy at every iteration than the current state-of-the-art algorithm based on stochastic variational inference. In addition we develop an approximation that can handle models that entertain a very large number of communities. The experimental results show that SG-MCMC strictly dominates competing algorithms in all cases.
This paper presents a methodology for creating streaming, distributed inference algorithms for Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models. In the proposed framework, processing nodes receive a sequence of data minibatches, compute a variational posterior for each, and make asynchronous streaming updates to a central model. In contrast to previous algorithms, the proposed framework is truly streaming, distributed, asynchronous, learning-rate-free, and truncation-free. The key challenge in developing the framework, arising from the fact that BNP models do not impose an inherent ordering on their components, is finding the correspondence between minibatch and central BNP posterior components before performing each update. To address this, the paper develops a combinatorial optimization problem over component correspondences, and provides an efficient solution technique. The paper concludes with an application of the methodology to the DP mixture model, with experimental results demonstrating its practical scalability and performance.
We investigate attention as the active pursuit of useful information. This contrasts with attention as a mechanism for the attenuation of irrelevant information. We also consider the role of short-term memory, whose use is critical to any model incapable of simultaneously perceiving all information on which its output depends. We present several simple synthetic tasks, which become considerably more interesting when we impose strong constraints on how a model can interact with its input, and on how long it can take to produce its output. We develop a model with a different structure from those seen in previous work, and we train it using stochastic variational inference with a learned proposal distribution.
We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the dependency that is not captured by the original variational distribution, and thus the augmented variational family guarantees better approximations to the posterior. With stochastic optimization, inference on the augmented distribution is scalable. Furthermore, our strategy is generic: it can be applied to any inference procedure that currently uses the mean-field or structured approach. Copula variational inference has many advantages: it reduces bias; it is less sensitive to local optima; it is less sensitive to hyperparameters; and it helps characterize and interpret the dependency among the latent variables.
We consider the scenario where the parameters of a probabilistic model are expected to vary over time. We construct a novel prior distribution that promotes sparsity and adapts the strength of correlation between parameters at successive timesteps, based on the data. We derive approximate variational inference procedures for learning and prediction with this prior. We test the approach on two tasks: forecasting financial quantities from relevant text, and modeling language contingent on time-varying financial measurements.
Expectation propagation (EP) is a deterministic approximation algorithm that is often used to perform approximate Bayesian parameter learning. EP approximates the full intractable posterior distribution through a set of local approximations that are iteratively refined for each datapoint. EP can offer analytic and computational advantages over other approximations, such as Variational Inference (VI), and is the method of choice for a number of models. The local nature of EP appears to make it an ideal candidate for performing Bayesian learning on large models in large-scale dataset settings. However, EP has a crucial limitation in this context: the number of approximating factors needs to increase with the number of data-points, N, which often entails a prohibitively large memory overhead. This paper presents an extension to EP, called stochastic expectation propagation (SEP), that maintains a global posterior approximation (like VI) but updates it in a local way (like EP). Experiments on a number of canonical learning problems using synthetic and real-world datasets indicate that SEP performs almost as well as full EP, but reduces the memory consumption by a factor of $N$. SEP is therefore ideally suited to performing approximate Bayesian learning in the large model, large dataset setting.
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is a popular class of methods for sampling from an intractable target distribution using a sequence of simpler intermediate distributions. Like other importance sampling-based methods, performance is critically dependent on the proposal distribution: a bad proposal can lead to arbitrarily inaccurate estimates of the target distribution. This paper presents a new method for automatically adapting the proposal using an approximation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true posterior and the proposal distribution. The method is very flexible, applicable to any parameterized proposal distribution and it supports online and batch variants. We use the new framework to adapt powerful proposal distributions with rich parameterizations based upon neural networks leading to Neural Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (NASMC). Experiments indicate that NASMC significantly improves inference in a non-linear state space model outperforming adaptive proposal methods including the Extended Kalman and Unscented Particle Filters. Experiments also indicate that improved inference translates into improved parameter learning when NASMC is used as a subroutine of Particle Marginal Metropolis Hastings. Finally we show that NASMC is able to train a latent variable recurrent neural network (LV-RNN) achieving results that compete with the state-of-the-art for polymorphic music modelling. NASMC can be seen as bridging the gap between adaptive SMC methods and the recent work in scalable, black-box variational inference.
Latent variable time-series models are among the most heavily used tools from machine learning and applied statistics. These models have the advantage of learning latent structure both from noisy observations and from the temporal ordering in the data, where it is assumed that meaningful correlation structure exists across time. A few highly-structured models, such as the linear dynamical system with linear-Gaussian observations, have closed-form inference procedures (e.g. the Kalman Filter), but this case is an exception to the general rule that exact posterior inference in more complex generative models is intractable. Consequently, much work in time-series modeling focuses on approximate inference procedures for one particular class of models. Here, we extend recent developments in stochastic variational inference to develop a `black-box' approximate inference technique for latent variable models with latent dynamical structure. We propose a structured Gaussian variational approximate posterior that carries the same intuition as the standard Kalman filter-smoother but, importantly, permits us to use the same inference approach to approximate the posterior of much more general, nonlinear latent variable generative models. We show that our approach recovers accurate estimates in the case of basic models with closed-form posteriors, and more interestingly performs well in comparison to variational approaches that were designed in a bespoke fashion for specific non-conjugate models.
We introduce a globally-convergent algorithm for optimizing the tree-reweighted (TRW) variational objective over the marginal polytope. The algorithm is based on the conditional gradient method (Frank-Wolfe) and moves pseudomarginals within the marginal polytope through repeated maximum a posteriori (MAP) calls. This modular structure enables us to leverage black-box MAP solvers (both exact and approximate) for variational inference, and obtains more accurate results than tree-reweighted algorithms that optimize over the local consistency relaxation. Theoretically, we bound the sub-optimality for the proposed algorithm despite the TRW objective having unbounded gradients at the boundary of the marginal polytope. Empirically, we demonstrate the increased quality of results found by tightening the relaxation over the marginal polytope as well as the spanning tree polytope on synthetic and real-world instances.
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting. Our algorithm is applicable to both finite hidden Markov models and hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden Markov models, and to any datasets generated by emission distributions in the exponential family. Our experiment results on two discrete datasets show that our inference is both more efficient and more accurate than its uncollapsed version, stochastic variational inference.
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm for hidden Markov models, in a sequential data setting. Given a collapsed hidden Markov Model, we break its long Markov chain into a set of short subchains. We propose a novel sum-product algorithm to update the posteriors of the subchains, taking into account their boundary transitions due to the sequential dependencies. Our experiments on two discrete datasets show that our collapsed algorithm is scalable to very large datasets, memory efficient and significantly more accurate than the existing uncollapsed algorithm.
Mean-field variational inference is one of the most popular approaches to inference in discrete random fields. Standard mean-field optimization is based on coordinate descent and in many situations can be impractical. Thus, in practice, various parallel techniques are used, which either rely on ad-hoc smoothing with heuristically set parameters, or put strong constraints on the type of models. In this paper, we propose a novel proximal gradient-based approach to optimizing the variational objective. It is naturally parallelizable and easy to implement. We prove its convergence, and then demonstrate that, in practice, it yields faster convergence and often finds better optima than more traditional mean-field optimization techniques. Moreover, our method is less sensitive to the choice of parameters.
A method for large scale Gaussian process classification has been recently proposed based on expectation propagation (EP). Such a method allows Gaussian process classifiers to be trained on very large datasets that were out of the reach of previous deployments of EP and has been shown to be competitive with related techniques based on stochastic variational inference. Nevertheless, the memory resources required scale linearly with the dataset size, unlike in variational methods. This is a severe limitation when the number of instances is very large. Here we show that this problem is avoided when stochastic EP is used to train the model.