The representation of the approximate posterior is a critical aspect of effective variational autoencoders (VAEs). Poor choices for the approximate posterior have a detrimental impact on the generative performance of VAEs due to the mismatch with the true posterior. We extend the class of posterior models that may be learned by using undirected graphical models. We develop an efficient method to train undirected approximate posteriors by showing that the gradient of the training objective with respect to the parameters of the undirected posterior can be computed by backpropagation through Markov chain Monte Carlo updates. We apply these gradient estimators for training discrete VAEs with Boltzmann machines as approximate posteriors and demonstrate that undirected models outperform previous results obtained using directed graphical models. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/QuadrantAI/dvaess .
Artificial Neural Networks are connectionist systems that perform a given task by learning on examples without having prior knowledge about the task. This is done by finding an optimal point estimate for the weights in every node. Generally, the network using point estimates as weights perform well with large datasets, but they fail to express uncertainty in regions with little or no data, leading to overconfident decisions. In this paper, Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network (BayesCNN) using Variational Inference is proposed, that introduces probability distribution over the weights. Furthermore, the proposed BayesCNN architecture is applied to tasks like Image Classification, Image Super-Resolution and Generative Adversarial Networks. The results are compared to point-estimates based architectures on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets for Image CLassification task, on BSD300 dataset for Image Super Resolution task and on CIFAR10 dataset again for Generative Adversarial Network task. BayesCNN is based on Bayes by Backprop which derives a variational approximation to the true posterior. We, therefore, introduce the idea of applying two convolutional operations, one for the mean and one for the variance. Our proposed method not only achieves performances equivalent to frequentist inference in identical architectures but also incorporate a measurement for uncertainties and regularisation. It further eliminates the use of dropout in the model. Moreover, we predict how certain the model prediction is based on the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties and empirically show how the uncertainty can decrease, allowing the decisions made by the network to become more deterministic as the training accuracy increases. Finally, we propose ways to prune the Bayesian architecture and to make it more computational and time effective.
We consider the problem of detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples in deep reinforcement learning. In a value based reinforcement learning setting, we propose to use uncertainty estimation techniques directly on the agent's value estimating neural network to detect OOD samples. The focus of our work lies in analyzing the suitability of approximate Bayesian inference methods and related ensembling techniques that generate uncertainty estimates. Although prior work has shown that dropout-based variational inference techniques and bootstrap-based approaches can be used to model epistemic uncertainty, the suitability for detecting OOD samples in deep reinforcement learning remains an open question. Our results show that uncertainty estimation can be used to differentiate in- from out-of-distribution samples. Over the complete training process of the reinforcement learning agents, bootstrap-based approaches tend to produce more reliable epistemic uncertainty estimates, when compared to dropout-based approaches.
Probabilistic clustering models (or equivalently, mixture models) are basic building blocks in countless statistical models and involve latent random variables over discrete spaces. For these models, posterior inference methods can be inaccurate and/or very slow. In this work we introduce deep network architectures trained with labeled samples from any generative model of clustered datasets. At test time, the networks generate approximate posterior samples of cluster labels for any new dataset of arbitrary size. We develop two complementary approaches to this task, requiring either O(N) or O(K) network forward passes per dataset, where N is the dataset size and K the number of clusters. Unlike previous approaches, our methods sample the labels of all the data points from a well-defined posterior, and can learn nonparametric Bayesian posteriors since they do not limit the number of mixture components. As a scientific application, we present a novel approach to neural spike sorting for high-density multielectrode arrays.
To use machine learning in high stakes applications (e.g. medicine), we need tools for building confidence in the system and evaluating whether it is reliable. Methods to improve model reliability often require new learning algorithms (e.g. using Bayesian inference to obtain uncertainty estimates). An alternative is to audit a model after it is trained. In this paper, we describe resampling uncertainty estimation (RUE), an algorithm to audit the pointwise reliability of predictions. Intuitively, RUE estimates the amount that a prediction would change if the model had been fit on different training data. The algorithm uses the gradient and Hessian of the model's loss function to create an ensemble of predictions. Experimentally, we show that RUE more effectively detects inaccurate predictions than existing tools for auditing reliability subsequent to training. We also show that RUE can create predictive distributions that are competitive with state-of-the-art methods like Monte Carlo dropout, probabilistic backpropagation, and deep ensembles, but does not depend on specific algorithms at train-time like these methods do.
In this paper, we study a popular method for inference of the Bradley-Terry model parameters, namely the MM algorithm, for maximum likelihood estimation and maximum a posteriori probability estimation. This class of models includes the Bradley-Terry model of paired comparisons, the Rao-Kupper model of paired comparisons allowing for tie outcomes, the Luce choice model, and the Plackett-Luce ranking model. We establish tight characterizations of the convergence rate for the MM algorithm, and show that it is essentially equivalent to that of a gradient descent algorithm. For the maximum likelihood estimation, the convergence is shown to be linear with the rate crucially determined by the algebraic connectivity of the matrix of item pair co-occurrences in observed comparison data. For the Bayesian inference, the convergence rate is also shown to be linear, with the rate determined by a parameter of the prior distribution in a way that can make the convergence arbitrarily slow for small values of this parameter. We propose a simple modification of the classical MM algorithm that avoids the observed slow convergence issue and accelerates the convergence. The key component of the accelerated MM algorithm is a parameter rescaling performed at each iteration step that is carefully chosen based on theoretical analysis and characterisation of the convergence rate. Our experimental results, performed on both synthetic and real-world data, demonstrate the identified slow convergence issue of the classic MM algorithm, and show that significant efficiency gains can be obtained by our new proposed method.
Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has been quite successful in constructing state-of-the-art models on a variety of tasks. Unfortunately, the computational cost can make it difficult to scale. In this paper, we make the first attempt to study Meta Architecture Search which aims at learning a task-agnostic representation that can be used to speed up the process of architecture search on a large number of tasks. We propose the Bayesian Meta Architecture SEarch (BASE) framework which takes advantage of a Bayesian formulation of the architecture search problem to learn over an entire set of tasks simultaneously. We show that on Imagenet classification, we can find a model that achieves 25.7% top-1 error and 8.1% top-5 error by adapting the architecture in less than an hour from an 8 GPU days pretrained meta-network. By learning a good prior for NAS, our method dramatically decreases the required computation cost while achieving comparable performance to current state-of-the-art methods - even finding competitive models for unseen datasets with very quick adaptation. We believe our framework will open up new possibilities for efficient and massively scalable architecture search research across multiple tasks.
Robots are increasingly used to carry out critical missions in extreme environments that are hazardous for humans. This requires a high degree of operational autonomy under uncertain conditions, and poses new challenges for assuring the robot's safety and reliability. In this paper, we develop a framework for probabilistic model checking on a layered Markov model to verify the safety and reliability requirements of such robots, both at pre-mission stage and during runtime. Two novel estimators based on conservative Bayesian inference and imprecise probability model with sets of priors are introduced to learn the unknown transition parameters from operational data. We demonstrate our approach using data from a real-world deployment of unmanned underwater vehicles in extreme environments.
Traditional model-based RL relies on hand-specified or learned models of transition dynamics of the environment. These methods are sample efficient and facilitate learning in the real world but fail to generalize to subtle variations in the underlying dynamics, e.g., due to differences in mass, friction, or actuators across robotic agents or across time. We propose using variational inference to learn an explicit latent representation of unknown environment properties that accelerates learning and facilitates generalization on novel environments at test time. We use Online Bayesian Inference of these learned latents to rapidly adapt online to changes in environments without retaining large replay buffers of recent data. Combined with a neural network ensemble that models dynamics and captures uncertainty over dynamics, our approach demonstrates positive transfer during training and online adaptation on the continuous control task HalfCheetah.
Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions, which can be very harmful when this arises in safety critical applications. In this paper, we show that predictive uncertainty can be efficiently estimated when we incorporate the concept of gradients uncertainty into posterior sampling. The proposed method is tested on two different datasets, MNIST for in-distribution confusing examples and notMNIST for out-of-distribution data. We show that our method is able to efficiently represent predictive uncertainty on both datasets.
We propose a physics-based method to learn environmental fields (EFs) using a mobile robot. Common purely data-driven methods require prohibitively many measurements to accurately learn such complex EFs. Alternatively, physics-based models provide global knowledge of EFs but require experimental validation, depend on uncertain parameters, and are intractable for mobile robots. To address these challenges, we propose a Bayesian framework to select the most likely physics-based models of EFs in real-time, from a pool of numerical solutions generated offline as a function of the uncertain parameters. Specifically, we focus on turbulent flow fields and utilize Gaussian processes (GPs) to construct statistical models for them, using the pool of numerical solutions to inform their prior mean. To incorporate flow measurements into these GPs, we control a custom-built mobile robot through a sequence of waypoints that maximize the information content of the measurements. We experimentally demonstrate that our proposed framework constructs a posterior distribution of the flow field that better approximates the real flow compared to the prior numerical solutions and purely data-driven methods.
The ability for autonomous agents to learn and conform to human norms is crucial for their safety and effectiveness in social environments. While recent work has led to frameworks for the representation and inference of simple social rules, research into norm learning remains at an exploratory stage. Here, we present a robotic system capable of representing, learning, and inferring ownership relations and norms. Ownership is represented as a graph of probabilistic relations between objects and their owners, along with a database of predicate-based norms that constrain the actions permissible on owned objects. To learn these norms and relations, our system integrates (i) a novel incremental norm learning algorithm capable of both one-shot learning and induction from specific examples, (ii) Bayesian inference of ownership relations in response to apparent rule violations, and (iii) percept-based prediction of an object's likely owners. Through a series of simulated and real-world experiments, we demonstrate the competence and flexibility of the system in performing object manipulation tasks that require a variety of norms to be followed, laying the groundwork for future research into the acquisition and application of social norms.
We propose a unifying view of two different Bayesian inference algorithms, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD), leading to improved and efficient novel sampling schemes. We show that SVGD combined with a noise term can be framed as a multiple chain SG-MCMC method. Instead of treating each parallel chain independently from others, our proposed algorithm implements a repulsive force between particles, avoiding collapse and facilitating a better exploration of the parameter space. We also show how the addition of this noise term is necessary to obtain a valid SG-MCMC sampler, a significant difference with SVGD. Experiments with both synthetic distributions and real datasets illustrate the benefits of the proposed scheme.
A novel method to propagate uncertainty through the soft-thresholding nonlinearity is proposed in this paper. At every layer the current distribution of the target vector is represented as a spike and slab distribution, which represents the probabilities of each variable being zero, or Gaussian-distributed. Using the proposed method of uncertainty propagation, the gradients of the logarithms of normalisation constants are derived, that can be used to update a weight distribution. A novel Bayesian neural network for sparse coding is designed utilising both the proposed method of uncertainty propagation and Bayesian inference algorithm.
Modern deep neural network models suffer from adversarial examples, i.e. confidently misclassified points in the input space. It has been shown that Bayesian neural networks are a promising approach for detecting adversarial points, but careful analysis is problematic due to the complexity of these models. Recently Gilmer et al. (2018) introduced adversarial spheres, a toy set-up that simplifies both practical and theoretical analysis of the problem. In this work, we use the adversarial sphere set-up to understand the properties of approximate Bayesian inference methods for a linear model in a noiseless setting. We compare predictions of Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods, showcasing the advantages of the former, although revealing open challenges for deep learning applications.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) provide state-of-the-art results for a multitude of applications, but the approaches using DNNs for multimodal audiovisual applications do not consider predictive uncertainty associated with individual modalities. Bayesian deep learning methods provide principled confidence and quantify predictive uncertainty. Our contribution in this work is to propose an uncertainty aware multimodal Bayesian fusion framework for activity recognition. We demonstrate a novel approach that combines deterministic and variational layers to scale Bayesian DNNs to deeper architectures. Our experiments using in- and out-of-distribution samples selected from a subset of Moments-in-Time (MiT) dataset show a more reliable confidence measure as compared to the non-Bayesian baseline and the Monte Carlo dropout (MC dropout) approximate Bayesian inference. We also demonstrate the uncertainty estimates obtained from the proposed framework can identify out-of-distribution data on the UCF101 and MiT datasets. In the multimodal setting, the proposed framework improved precision-recall AUC by 10.2% on the subset of MiT dataset as compared to non-Bayesian baseline.
We develop methods for efficient amortized approximate Bayesian inference over posterior distributions of probabilistic clustering models, such as Dirichlet process mixture models. The approach is based on mapping distributed, symmetry-invariant representations of cluster arrangements into conditional probabilities. The method parallelizes easily, yields iid samples from the approximate posterior of cluster assignments with the same computational cost of a single Gibbs sampler sweep, and can easily be applied to both conjugate and non-conjugate models, as training only requires samples from the generative model.
In this work, we formulate the fixed-length distribution matching as a Bayesian inference problem. Our proposed solution is inspired from the compressed sensing paradigm and the sparse superposition (SS) codes. First, we introduce sparsity in the binary source via position modulation (PM). We then present a simple and exact matcher based on Gaussian signal quantization. At the receiver, the dematcher exploits the sparsity in the source and performs low-complexity dematching based on generalized approximate message-passing (GAMP). We show that GAMP dematcher and spatial coupling lead to asymptotically optimal performance, in the sense that the rate tends to the entropy of the target distribution with vanishing reconstruction error in a proper limit. Furthermore, we assess the performance of the dematcher on practical Hadamard-based operators. A remarkable feature of our proposed solution is the possibility to: i) perform matching at the symbol level (nonbinary); ii) perform joint channel coding and matching.
Due to the need for robust uncertainty quantification, Bayesian neural learning has gained attention in the era of deep learning and big data. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods typically implement Bayesian inference which faces several challenges given a large number of parameters, complex and multimodal posterior distributions, and computational complexity of large neural network models. Parallel tempering MCMC addresses some of these limitations given that they can sample multimodal posterior distributions and utilize high-performance computing. However, certain challenges remain given large neural network models and big data. Surrogate-assisted optimization features the estimation of an objective function for models which are computationally expensive. In this paper, we address the inefficiency of parallel tempering MCMC for large-scale problems by combining parallel computing features with surrogate assisted likelihood estimation that describes the plausibility of a model parameter value, given specific observed data. Hence, we present surrogate-assisted parallel tempering for Bayesian neural learning for simple to computationally expensive models. Our results demonstrate that the methodology significantly lowers the computational cost while maintaining quality in decision making with Bayesian neural networks. The method has applications for a Bayesian inversion and uncertainty quantification for a broad range of numerical models.
Computer vision tasks are difficult because of the large variability in the data that is induced by changes in light, background, partial occlusion as well as the varying pose, texture, and shape of objects. Generative approaches to computer vision allow us to overcome this difficulty by explicitly modeling the physical image formation process. Using generative object models, the analysis of an observed image is performed via Bayesian inference of the posterior distribution. This conceptually simple approach tends to fail in practice because of several difficulties stemming from sampling the posterior distribution: high-dimensionality and multi-modality of the posterior distribution as well as expensive simulation of the rendering process. The main difficulty of sampling approaches in a computer vision context is choosing the proposal distribution accurately so that maxima of the posterior are explored early and the algorithm quickly converges to a valid image interpretation. In this work, we propose to use a Bayesian Neural Network for estimating an image dependent proposal distribution. Compared to a standard Gaussian random walk proposal, this accelerates the sampler in finding regions of the posterior with high value. In this way, we can significantly reduce the number of samples needed to perform facial image analysis.