Prototypical-part methods, e.g., ProtoPNet, enhance interpretability in image recognition by linking predictions to training prototypes, thereby offering intuitive insights into their decision-making. Existing methods, which rely on a point-based learning of prototypes, typically face two critical issues: 1) the learned prototypes have limited representation power and are not suitable to detect Out-of-Distribution (OoD) inputs, reducing their decision trustworthiness; and 2) the necessary projection of the learned prototypes back into the space of training images causes a drastic degradation in the predictive performance. Furthermore, current prototype learning adopts an aggressive approach that considers only the most active object parts during training, while overlooking sub-salient object regions which still hold crucial classification information. In this paper, we present a new generative paradigm to learn prototype distributions, termed as Mixture of Gaussian-distributed Prototypes (MGProto). The distribution of prototypes from MGProto enables both interpretable image classification and trustworthy recognition of OoD inputs. The optimisation of MGProto naturally projects the learned prototype distributions back into the training image space, thereby addressing the performance degradation caused by prototype projection. Additionally, we develop a novel and effective prototype mining strategy that considers not only the most active but also sub-salient object parts. To promote model compactness, we further propose to prune MGProto by removing prototypes with low importance priors. Experiments on CUB-200-2011, Stanford Cars, Stanford Dogs, and Oxford-IIIT Pets datasets show that MGProto achieves state-of-the-art image recognition and OoD detection performances, while providing encouraging interpretability results.
Given the increasing prevalence of wildland fires in the Western US, there is a critical need to develop tools to understand and accurately predict burn severity. We develop a machine learning model to predict post-fire burn severity using pre-fire remotely sensed data. Hydrological, ecological, and topographical variables collected from four regions of California - the sites of the Kincade fire (2019), the CZU Lightning Complex fire (2020), the Windy fire (2021), and the KNP Fire (2021) - are used as predictors of the difference normalized burn ratio. We hypothesize that a Super Learner (SL) algorithm that accounts for spatial autocorrelation using Vecchia's Gaussian approximation will accurately model burn severity. In all combinations of test and training sets explored, the results of our model showed the SL algorithm outperformed standard Linear Regression methods. After fitting and verifying the performance of the SL model, we use interpretable machine learning tools to determine the main drivers of severe burn damage, including greenness, elevation and fire weather variables. These findings provide actionable insights that enable communities to strategize interventions, such as early fire detection systems, pre-fire season vegetation clearing activities, and resource allocation during emergency responses. When implemented, this model has the potential to minimize the loss of human life, property, resources, and ecosystems in California.
The rapid increase in the parameters of deep learning models has led to significant costs, challenging computational efficiency and model interpretability. In this paper, we introduce a novel and straightforward neural network pruning framework that incorporates the Gumbel-Softmax technique. This framework enables the simultaneous optimization of a network's weights and topology in an end-to-end process using stochastic gradient descent. Empirical results demonstrate its exceptional compression capability, maintaining high accuracy on the MNIST dataset with only 0.15\% of the original network parameters. Moreover, our framework enhances neural network interpretability, not only by allowing easy extraction of feature importance directly from the pruned network but also by enabling visualization of feature symmetry and the pathways of information propagation from features to outcomes. Although the pruning strategy is learned through deep learning, it is surprisingly intuitive and understandable, focusing on selecting key representative features and exploiting data patterns to achieve extreme sparse pruning. We believe our method opens a promising new avenue for deep learning pruning and the creation of interpretable machine learning systems.
The accurate classification of lymphoma subtypes using hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained tissue is complicated by the wide range of morphological features these cancers can exhibit. We present LymphoML - an interpretable machine learning method that identifies morphologic features that correlate with lymphoma subtypes. Our method applies steps to process H&E-stained tissue microarray cores, segment nuclei and cells, compute features encompassing morphology, texture, and architecture, and train gradient-boosted models to make diagnostic predictions. LymphoML's interpretable models, developed on a limited volume of H&E-stained tissue, achieve non-inferior diagnostic accuracy to pathologists using whole-slide images and outperform black box deep-learning on a dataset of 670 cases from Guatemala spanning 8 lymphoma subtypes. Using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis, we assess the impact of each feature on model prediction and find that nuclear shape features are most discriminative for DLBCL (F1-score: 78.7%) and classical Hodgkin lymphoma (F1-score: 74.5%). Finally, we provide the first demonstration that a model combining features from H&E-stained tissue with features from a standardized panel of 6 immunostains results in a similar diagnostic accuracy (85.3%) to a 46-stain panel (86.1%).
Machine learning is currently undergoing an explosion in capability, popularity, and sophistication. However, one of the major barriers to widespread acceptance of machine learning (ML) is trustworthiness: most ML models operate as black boxes, their inner workings opaque and mysterious, and it can be difficult to trust their conclusions without understanding how those conclusions are reached. Explainability is therefore a key aspect of improving trustworthiness: the ability to better understand, interpret, and anticipate the behaviour of ML models. To this end, we propose SMILE, a new method that builds on previous approaches by making use of statistical distance measures to improve explainability while remaining applicable to a wide range of input data domains.
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many people to limit their social activities, which has resulted in a rise in mental illnesses, particularly depression. To diagnose these illnesses with accuracy and speed, and prevent severe outcomes such as suicide, the use of machine learning has become increasingly important. Additionally, to provide precise and understandable diagnoses for better treatment, AI scientists and researchers must develop interpretable AI-based solutions. This article provides an overview of relevant articles in the field of machine learning and interpretable AI, which helps to understand the advantages and disadvantages of using AI in psychiatry disorder detection applications.
In recent years, bikesharing systems have become increasingly popular as affordable and sustainable micromobility solutions. Advanced mathematical models such as machine learning are required to generate good forecasts for bikeshare demand. To this end, this study proposes a machine learning modeling framework to estimate hourly demand in a large-scale bikesharing system. Two Extreme Gradient Boosting models were developed: one using data from before the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2019 to February 2020) and the other using data from during the pandemic (March 2020 to February 2021). Furthermore, a model interpretation framework based on SHapley Additive exPlanations was implemented. Based on the relative importance of the explanatory variables considered in this study, share of female users and hour of day were the two most important explanatory variables in both models. However, the month variable had higher importance in the pandemic model than in the pre-pandemic model.
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many people to limit their social activities, which has resulted in a rise in mental illnesses, particularly depression. To diagnose these illnesses with accuracy and speed, and prevent severe outcomes such as suicide, the use of machine learning has become increasingly important. Additionally, to provide precise and understandable diagnoses for better treatment, AI scientists and researchers must develop interpretable AI-based solutions. This article provides an overview of relevant articles in the field of machine learning and interpretable AI, which helps to understand the advantages and disadvantages of using AI in psychiatry disorder detection applications.
The transportation industry, particularly the trucking sector, is prone to workplace accidents and fatalities. Accidents involving large trucks accounted for a considerable percentage of overall traffic fatalities. Recognizing the crucial role of safety climate in accident prevention, researchers have sought to understand its factors and measure its impact within organizations. While existing data-driven safety climate studies have made remarkable progress, clustering employees based on their safety climate perception is innovative and has not been extensively utilized in research. Identifying clusters of drivers based on their safety climate perception allows the organization to profile its workforce and devise more impactful interventions. The lack of utilizing the clustering approach could be due to difficulties interpreting or explaining the factors influencing employees' cluster membership. Moreover, existing safety-related studies did not compare multiple clustering algorithms, resulting in potential bias. To address these issues, this study introduces an interpretable clustering approach for safety climate analysis. This study compares 5 algorithms for clustering truck drivers based on their safety climate perceptions. It proposes a novel method for quantitatively evaluating partial dependence plots (QPDP). To better interpret the clustering results, this study introduces different interpretable machine learning measures (SHAP, PFI, and QPDP). Drawing on data collected from more than 7,000 American truck drivers, this study significantly contributes to the scientific literature. It highlights the critical role of supervisory care promotion in distinguishing various driver groups. The Python code is available at https://github.com/NUS-DBE/truck-driver-safety-climate.
References, the mechanism scientists rely on to signal previous knowledge, lately have turned into widely used and misused measures of scientific impact. Yet, when a discovery becomes common knowledge, citations suffer from obliteration by incorporation. This leads to the concept of hidden citation, representing a clear textual credit to a discovery without a reference to the publication embodying it. Here, we rely on unsupervised interpretable machine learning applied to the full text of each paper to systematically identify hidden citations. We find that for influential discoveries hidden citations outnumber citation counts, emerging regardless of publishing venue and discipline. We show that the prevalence of hidden citations is not driven by citation counts, but rather by the degree of the discourse on the topic within the text of the manuscripts, indicating that the more discussed is a discovery, the less visible it is to standard bibliometric analysis. Hidden citations indicate that bibliometric measures offer a limited perspective on quantifying the true impact of a discovery, raising the need to extract knowledge from the full text of the scientific corpus.
The United Nations has identified improving food security and reducing hunger as essential components of its sustainable development goals. As of 2021, approximately 828 million people worldwide are experiencing hunger and malnutrition, with numerous fatalities reported. Climate change significantly impacts agricultural land suitability, potentially leading to severe food shortages and subsequent social and political conflicts. To address this pressing issue, we have developed a machine learning-based approach to predict the risk of substantial land suitability degradation and changes in irrigation patterns. Our study focuses on Central Eurasia, a region burdened with economic and social challenges. This study represents a pioneering effort in utilizing machine learning methods to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural land suitability under various carbon emissions scenarios. Through comprehensive feature importance analysis, we unveil specific climate and terrain characteristics that exert influence on land suitability. Our approach achieves remarkable accuracy, offering policymakers invaluable insights to facilitate informed decisions aimed at averting a humanitarian crisis, including strategies such as the provision of additional water and fertilizers. This research underscores the tremendous potential of machine learning in addressing global challenges, with a particular emphasis on mitigating hunger and malnutrition.
This paper examines the use of operator-theoretic approaches to the analysis of chaotic systems through the lens of their unstable periodic orbits (UPOs). Our approach involves three data-driven steps for detecting, identifying, and stabilizing UPOs. We demonstrate the use of kernel integral operators within delay coordinates as an innovative method for UPO detection. For identifying the dynamic behavior associated with each individual UPO, we utilize the Koopman operator to present the dynamics as linear equations in the space of Koopman eigenfunctions. This allows for characterizing the chaotic attractor by investigating its principal dynamical modes across varying UPOs. We extend this methodology into an interpretable machine learning framework aimed at stabilizing strange attractors on their UPOs. To illustrate the efficacy of our approach, we apply it to the Lorenz attractor as a case study.
Understanding the key factors shaping environmental hazard exposures and their associated environmental injustice issues is vital for formulating equitable policy measures. Traditional perspectives on environmental injustice have primarily focused on the socioeconomic dimensions, often overlooking the influence of heterogeneous urban characteristics. This limited view may obstruct a comprehensive understanding of the complex nature of environmental justice and its relationship with urban design features. To address this gap, this study creates an interpretable machine learning model to examine the effects of various urban features and their non-linear interactions to the exposure disparities of three primary hazards: air pollution, urban heat, and flooding. The analysis trains and tests models with data from six metropolitan counties in the United States using Random Forest and XGBoost. The performance is used to measure the extent to which variations of urban features shape disparities in environmental hazard levels. In addition, the analysis of feature importance reveals features related to social-demographic characteristics as the most prominent urban features that shape hazard extent. Features related to infrastructure distribution and land cover are relatively important for urban heat and air pollution exposure respectively. Moreover, we evaluate the models' transferability across different regions and hazards. The results highlight limited transferability, underscoring the intricate differences among hazards and regions and the way in which urban features shape hazard exposures. The insights gleaned from this study offer fresh perspectives on the relationship among urban features and their interplay with environmental hazard exposure disparities, informing the development of more integrated urban design policies to enhance social equity and environmental injustice issues.
Tsetlin Machines (TMs) have garnered increasing interest for their ability to learn concepts via propositional formulas and their proven efficiency across various application domains. Despite this, the convergence proof for the TMs, particularly for the AND operator (\emph{conjunction} of literals), in the generalized case (inputs greater than two bits) remains an open problem. This paper aims to fill this gap by presenting a comprehensive convergence analysis of Tsetlin automaton-based Machine Learning algorithms. We introduce a novel framework, referred to as Probabilistic Concept Learning (PCL), which simplifies the TM structure while incorporating dedicated feedback mechanisms and dedicated inclusion/exclusion probabilities for literals. Given $n$ features, PCL aims to learn a set of conjunction clauses $C_i$ each associated with a distinct inclusion probability $p_i$. Most importantly, we establish a theoretical proof confirming that, for any clause $C_k$, PCL converges to a conjunction of literals when $0.5<p_k<1$. This result serves as a stepping stone for future research on the convergence properties of Tsetlin automaton-based learning algorithms. Our findings not only contribute to the theoretical understanding of Tsetlin Machines but also have implications for their practical application, potentially leading to more robust and interpretable machine learning models.
We present a comprehensive evaluation of the robustness and explainability of ResNet-like models in the context of Unintended Radiated Emission (URE) classification and suggest a new approach leveraging Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) to address identified limitations. We provide an empirical demonstration of the fragility of ResNet-like models to Gaussian noise perturbations, where the model performance deteriorates sharply and its F1-score drops to near insignificance at 0.008 with a Gaussian noise of only 0.5 standard deviation. We also highlight a concerning discrepancy where the explanations provided by ResNet-like models do not reflect the inherent periodicity in the input data, a crucial attribute in URE detection from stable devices. In response to these findings, we propose a novel application of Neural SDEs to build models for URE classification that are not only robust to noise but also provide more meaningful and intuitive explanations. Neural SDE models maintain a high F1-score of 0.93 even when exposed to Gaussian noise with a standard deviation of 0.5, demonstrating superior resilience to ResNet models. Neural SDE models successfully recover the time-invariant or periodic horizontal bands from the input data, a feature that was conspicuously missing in the explanations generated by ResNet-like models. This advancement presents a small but significant step in the development of robust and interpretable models for real-world URE applications where data is inherently noisy and assurance arguments demand interpretable machine learning predictions.
Shapley value is originally a concept in econometrics to fairly distribute both gains and costs to players in a coalition game. In the recent decades, its application has been extended to other areas such as marketing, engineering and machine learning. For example, it produces reasonable solutions for problems in sensitivity analysis, local model explanation towards the interpretable machine learning, node importance in social network, attribution models, etc. However, its heavy computational burden has been long recognized but rarely investigated. Specifically, in a $d$-player coalition game, calculating a Shapley value requires the evaluation of $d!$ or $2^d$ marginal contribution values, depending on whether we are taking the permutation or combination formulation of the Shapley value. Hence it becomes infeasible to calculate the Shapley value when $d$ is reasonably large. A common remedy is to take a random sample of the permutations to surrogate for the complete list of permutations. We find an advanced sampling scheme can be designed to yield much more accurate estimation of the Shapley value than the simple random sampling (SRS). Our sampling scheme is based on combinatorial structures in the field of design of experiments (DOE), particularly the order-of-addition experimental designs for the study of how the orderings of components would affect the output. We show that the obtained estimates are unbiased, and can sometimes deterministically recover the original Shapley value. Both theoretical and simulations results show that our DOE-based sampling scheme outperforms SRS in terms of estimation accuracy. Surprisingly, it is also slightly faster than SRS. Lastly, real data analysis is conducted for the C. elegans nervous system and the 9/11 terrorist network.
Artificial intelligence models and methods commonly lack causal interpretability. Despite the advancements in interpretable machine learning (IML) methods, they frequently assign importance to features which lack causal influence on the outcome variable. Selecting causally relevant features among those identified as relevant by these methods, or even before model training, would offer a solution. Feature selection methods utilizing information theoretical quantities have been successful in identifying statistically relevant features. However, the information theoretical quantities they are based on do not incorporate causality, rendering them unsuitable for such scenarios. To address this challenge, this article proposes information theoretical quantities that incorporate the causal structure of the system, which can be used to evaluate causal importance of features for some given outcome variable. Specifically, we introduce causal versions of entropy and mutual information, termed causal entropy and causal information gain, which are designed to assess how much control a feature provides over the outcome variable. These newly defined quantities capture changes in the entropy of a variable resulting from interventions on other variables. Fundamental results connecting these quantities to the existence of causal effects are derived. The use of causal information gain in feature selection is demonstrated, highlighting its superiority over standard mutual information in revealing which features provide control over a chosen outcome variable. Our investigation paves the way for the development of methods with improved interpretability in domains involving causation.
Algorithm fairness has become a central problem for the broad adoption of artificial intelligence. Although the past decade has witnessed an explosion of excellent work studying algorithm biases, achieving fairness in real-world AI production systems has remained a challenging task. Most existing works fail to excel in practical applications since either they have conflicting measurement techniques and/ or heavy assumptions, or require code-access of the production models, whereas real systems demand an easy-to-implement measurement framework and a systematic way to correct the detected sources of bias. In this paper, we leverage recent advances in causal inference and interpretable machine learning to present an algorithm-agnostic framework (MIIF) to Measure, Interpret, and Improve the Fairness of an algorithmic decision. We measure the algorithm bias using randomized experiments, which enables the simultaneous measurement of disparate treatment, disparate impact, and economic value. Furthermore, using modern interpretability techniques, we develop an explainable machine learning model which accurately interprets and distills the beliefs of a blackbox algorithm. Altogether, these techniques create a simple and powerful toolset for studying algorithm fairness, especially for understanding the cost of fairness in practical applications like e-commerce and targeted advertising, where industry A/B testing is already abundant.
For the past several decades, numerous attempts have been made to model the climate of Mars with extensive studies focusing on the planet's dynamics and the understanding of its climate. While physical modeling and data assimilation approaches have made significant progress, uncertainties persist in comprehensively capturing and modeling the complexities of Martian climate. In this work, we propose a novel approach to Martian climate modeling by leveraging machine learning techniques that have shown remarkable success in Earth climate modeling. Our study presents a deep neural network designed to accurately model relative humidity in Gale Crater, as measured by NASA's Mars Science Laboratory ``Curiosity'' rover. By utilizing simulated meteorological variables produced by the Mars Planetary Climate Model, a robust Global Circulation Model, our model accurately predicts relative humidity with a mean error of 3\% and an $R^2$ score of 0.92. Furthermore, we present an approach to predict quantile ranges of relative humidity, catering to applications that require a range of values. To address the challenge of interpretability associated with machine learning models, we utilize an interpretable model architecture and conduct an in-depth analysis of its internal mechanisms and decision making processes. We find that our neural network can effectively model relative humidity at Gale crater using a few meteorological variables, with the monthly mean surface H$_2$O layer, planetary boundary layer height, convective wind speed, and solar zenith angle being the primary contributors to the model predictions. In addition to providing a fast and efficient method to modeling climate variables on Mars, this modeling approach can also be used to expand on current datasets by filling spatial and temporal gaps in observations.
Background Weight loss trajectories after bariatric surgery vary widely between individuals, and predicting weight loss before the operation remains challenging. We aimed to develop a model using machine learning to provide individual preoperative prediction of 5-year weight loss trajectories after surgery. Methods In this multinational retrospective observational study we enrolled adult participants (aged $\ge$18 years) from ten prospective cohorts (including ABOS [NCT01129297], BAREVAL [NCT02310178], the Swedish Obese Subjects study, and a large cohort from the Dutch Obesity Clinic [Nederlandse Obesitas Kliniek]) and two randomised trials (SleevePass [NCT00793143] and SM-BOSS [NCT00356213]) in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, with a 5 year followup after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric band. Patients with a previous history of bariatric surgery or large delays between scheduled and actual visits were excluded. The training cohort comprised patients from two centres in France (ABOS and BAREVAL). The primary outcome was BMI at 5 years. A model was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select variables and the classification and regression trees algorithm to build interpretable regression trees. The performances of the model were assessed through the median absolute deviation (MAD) and root mean squared error (RMSE) of BMI. Findings10 231 patients from 12 centres in ten countries were included in the analysis, corresponding to 30 602 patient-years. Among participants in all 12 cohorts, 7701 (75$\bullet$3%) were female, 2530 (24$\bullet$7%) were male. Among 434 baseline attributes available in the training cohort, seven variables were selected: height, weight, intervention type, age, diabetes status, diabetes duration, and smoking status. At 5 years, across external testing cohorts the overall mean MAD BMI was 2$\bullet$8 kg/m${}^2$ (95% CI 2$\bullet$6-3$\bullet$0) and mean RMSE BMI was 4$\bullet$7 kg/m${}^2$ (4$\bullet$4-5$\bullet$0), and the mean difference between predicted and observed BMI was-0$\bullet$3 kg/m${}^2$ (SD 4$\bullet$7). This model is incorporated in an easy to use and interpretable web-based prediction tool to help inform clinical decision before surgery. InterpretationWe developed a machine learning-based model, which is internationally validated, for predicting individual 5-year weight loss trajectories after three common bariatric interventions.