We address the challenging problem of estimating the directions-of-arrival (DOAs) of multiple off-grid signals using a single snapshot of one-bit quantized measurements. Conventional DOA estimation methods face difficulties in tackling this problem effectively. This paper introduces a domain-knowledge-guided learning framework to achieve high-resolution DOA estimation in such a scenario, thus drastically reducing hardware complexity without compromising performance. We first reformulate DOA estimation as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem, unifying on-grid and off-grid scenarios under a Laplacian-type sparsity prior to effectively enforce sparsity for both uniform and sparse linear arrays. For off-grid signals, a first-order approximation grid model is embedded into the one-bit signal model. We then reinterpret one-bit sensing as a binary classification task, employing a multivariate Bernoulli likelihood with a logistic link function to enhance stability and estimation accuracy. To resolve the non-convexity inherent in the MAP formulation, we develop augmented algorithmic frameworks based on majorization-minimization principles. Further, we design model-based inference neural networks by deep unrolling these frameworks, significantly reducing computational complexity while preserving the estimation precision. Extensive simulations demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework across a wide range of input signal-to-noise ratio values and off-grid deviations. By integrating the unified model-based priors with data-driven learning, this work bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical feasibility in one-bit single-snapshot DOA estimation, offering a scalable, hardware-efficient solution for next-generation radar and communication systems.
Snow avalanches present significant risks to human life and infrastructure, particularly in mountainous regions, making effective monitoring crucial. Traditional monitoring methods, such as field observations, are limited by accessibility, weather conditions, and cost. Satellite-borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data has become an important tool for large-scale avalanche detection, as it can capture data in all weather conditions and across remote areas. However, traditional processing methods struggle with the complexity and variability of avalanches. This chapter reviews the application of deep learning for detecting and segmenting snow avalanches from SAR data. Early efforts focused on the binary classification of SAR images, while recent advances have enabled pixel-level segmentation, providing greater accuracy and spatial resolution. A case study using Sentinel-1 SAR data demonstrates the effectiveness of deep learning models for avalanche segmentation, achieving superior results over traditional methods. We also present an extension of this work, testing recent state-of-the-art segmentation architectures on an expanded dataset of over 4,500 annotated SAR images. The best-performing model among those tested was applied for large-scale avalanche detection across the whole of Norway, revealing important spatial and temporal patterns over several winter seasons.
In statistics, generalized linear models (GLMs) are widely used for modeling data and can expressively capture potential nonlinear dependence of the model's outcomes on its covariates. Within the broad family of GLMs, those with binary outcomes, which include logistic and probit regressions, are motivated by common tasks such as binary classification with (possibly) non-separable data. In addition, in modern machine learning and statistics, data is often high-dimensional yet has a low intrinsic dimension, making sparsity constraints in models another reasonable consideration. In this work, we propose to use and analyze an iterative hard thresholding (projected gradient descent on the ReLU loss) algorithm, called binary iterative hard thresholding (BIHT), for parameter estimation in sparse GLMs with binary outcomes. We establish that BIHT is statistically efficient and converges to the correct solution for parameter estimation in a general class of sparse binary GLMs. Unlike many other methods for learning GLMs, including maximum likelihood estimation, generalized approximate message passing, and GLM-tron (Kakade et al. 2011; Bahmani et al. 2016), BIHT does not require knowledge of the GLM's link function, offering flexibility and generality in allowing the algorithm to learn arbitrary binary GLMs. As two applications, logistic and probit regression are additionally studied. In this regard, it is shown that in logistic regression, the algorithm is in fact statistically optimal in the sense that the order-wise sample complexity matches (up to logarithmic factors) the lower bound obtained previously. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work achieving statistical optimality for logistic regression in all noise regimes with a computationally efficient algorithm. Moreover, for probit regression, our sample complexity is on the same order as that obtained for logistic regression.
Large language models perform surprisingly well on many zero-shot classification tasks, but are difficult to fairly compare to supervised classifiers due to the lack of a modifiable decision boundary. In this work, we propose and evaluate a method that converts binary classification tasks into pairwise comparison tasks, obtaining relative rankings from LLMs. Repeated pairwise comparisons can be used to score instances using the Elo rating system (used in chess and other competitions), inducing a confidence ordering over instances in a dataset. We evaluate scheduling algorithms for their ability to minimize comparisons, and show that our proposed algorithm leads to improved classification performance, while also providing more information than traditional zero-shot classification.
The rise of foundation models fine-tuned on human feedback from potentially untrusted users has increased the risk of adversarial data poisoning, necessitating the study of robustness of learning algorithms against such attacks. Existing research on provable certified robustness against data poisoning attacks primarily focuses on certifying robustness for static adversaries who modify a fraction of the dataset used to train the model before the training algorithm is applied. In practice, particularly when learning from human feedback in an online sense, adversaries can observe and react to the learning process and inject poisoned samples that optimize adversarial objectives better than when they are restricted to poisoning a static dataset once, before the learning algorithm is applied. Indeed, it has been shown in prior work that online dynamic adversaries can be significantly more powerful than static ones. We present a novel framework for computing certified bounds on the impact of dynamic poisoning, and use these certificates to design robust learning algorithms. We give an illustration of the framework for the mean estimation and binary classification problems and outline directions for extending this in further work. The code to implement our certificates and replicate our results is available at https://github.com/Avinandan22/Certified-Robustness.
Traditional deepfake detectors have dealt with the detection problem as a binary classification task. This approach can achieve satisfactory results in cases where samples of a given deepfake generation technique have been seen during training, but can easily fail with deepfakes generated by other techniques. In this paper, we propose DiffFake, a novel deepfake detector that approaches the detection problem as an anomaly detection task. Specifically, DiffFake learns natural changes that occur between two facial images of the same person by leveraging a differential anomaly detection framework. This is done by combining pairs of deep face embeddings and using them to train an anomaly detection model. We further propose to train a feature extractor on pseudo-deepfakes with global and local artifacts, to extract meaningful and generalizable features that can then be used to train the anomaly detection model. We perform extensive experiments on five different deepfake datasets and show that our method can match and sometimes even exceed the performance of state-of-the-art competitors.
Large Language Models (LLMs) are currently used extensively to generate code by professionals and students, motivating the development of tools to detect LLM-generated code for applications such as academic integrity and cybersecurity. We address this authorship attribution problem as a binary classification task along with feature identification and extraction. We propose new Discretized Nested Bigram Frequency features on source code groups of various sizes. Compared to prior work, improvements are obtained by representing sparse information in dense membership bins. Experimental evaluation demonstrated that our approach significantly outperformed a commonly used GPT code-detection API and baseline features, with accuracy exceeding 96% compared to 72% and 79% respectively in detecting GPT-rewritten Java code fragments for 976 files with GPT 3.5 and GPT4 using 12 features. We also outperformed three prior works on code author identification in a 40-author dataset. Our approach scales well to larger data sets, and we achieved 99% accuracy and 0.999 AUC for 76,089 files and over 1,000 authors with GPT 4o using 227 features.
We study the fundamental problem of calibrating a linear binary classifier of the form $\sigma(\hat{w}^\top x)$, where the feature vector $x$ is Gaussian, $\sigma$ is a link function, and $\hat{w}$ is an estimator of the true linear weight $w^\star$. By interpolating with a noninformative $\textit{chance classifier}$, we construct a well-calibrated predictor whose interpolation weight depends on the angle $\angle(\hat{w}, w_\star)$ between the estimator $\hat{w}$ and the true linear weight $w_\star$. We establish that this angular calibration approach is provably well-calibrated in a high-dimensional regime where the number of samples and features both diverge, at a comparable rate. The angle $\angle(\hat{w}, w_\star)$ can be consistently estimated. Furthermore, the resulting predictor is uniquely $\textit{Bregman-optimal}$, minimizing the Bregman divergence to the true label distribution within a suitable class of calibrated predictors. Our work is the first to provide a calibration strategy that satisfies both calibration and optimality properties provably in high dimensions. Additionally, we identify conditions under which a classical Platt-scaling predictor converges to our Bregman-optimal calibrated solution. Thus, Platt-scaling also inherits these desirable properties provably in high dimensions.
Solar flares are defined as outbursts on the surface of the Sun. They occur when energy accumulated in magnetic fields enclosing solar active regions (ARs) is abruptly expelled. Solar flares and associated coronal mass ejections are sources of space weather that adversely impact devices at or near Earth, including the obstruction of high-frequency radio waves utilized for communication and the deterioration of power grid operations. Tracking and delivering early and precise predictions of solar flares is essential for readiness and catastrophe risk mitigation. This paper employs the random forest (RF) model to address the binary classification task, analyzing the links between solar flares and their originating ARs with observational data gathered from 2011 to 2021 by SolarMonitor.org and the XRT flare database. We seek to identify the physical features of a source AR that significantly influence its potential to trigger >=C-class flares. We found that the features of AR_Type_Today, Hale_Class_Yesterday are the most and the least prepotent features, respectively. NoS_Difference has a remarkable effect in decision-making in both global and local interpretations.
Understanding collective pedestrian movement is crucial for applications in crowd management, autonomous navigation, and human-robot interaction. This paper investigates the use of sequential deep learning models, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformers, for real-time flock detection in multi-pedestrian trajectories. Our proposed approach consists of a two-stage process: first, a pre-trained binary classification model is used for pairwise trajectory classification, and second, the learned representations are applied to identify multi-agent flocks dynamically. We validate our method using real-world group movement datasets, demonstrating its robustness across varying sequence lengths and diverse movement patterns. Experimental results indicate that our model consistently detects pedestrian flocks with high accuracy and stability, even in dynamic and noisy environments. Furthermore, we extend our approach to identify other forms of collective motion, such as convoys and swarms, paving the way for more comprehensive multi-agent behavior analysis.
Understanding the confidence with which a machine learning model classifies an input datum is an important, and perhaps under-investigated, concept. In this paper, we propose a new calibration metric, the Entropic Calibration Difference (ECD). Based on existing research in the field of state estimation, specifically target tracking (TT), we show how ECD may be applied to binary classification machine learning models. We describe the relative importance of under- and over-confidence and how they are not conflated in the TT literature. Indeed, our metric distinguishes under- from over-confidence. We consider this important given that algorithms that are under-confident are likely to be 'safer' than algorithms that are over-confident, albeit at the expense of also being over-cautious and so statistically inefficient. We demonstrate how this new metric performs on real and simulated data and compare with other metrics for machine learning model probability calibration, including the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and its signed counterpart, the Expected Signed Calibration Error (ESCE).
Jailbreak attacks, where harmful prompts bypass generative models' built-in safety, raise serious concerns about model vulnerability. While many defense methods have been proposed, the trade-offs between safety and helpfulness, and their application to Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs), are not well understood. This paper systematically examines jailbreak defenses by reframing the standard generation task as a binary classification problem to assess model refusal tendencies for both harmful and benign queries. We identify two key defense mechanisms: safety shift, which increases refusal rates across all queries, and harmfulness discrimination, which improves the model's ability to distinguish between harmful and benign inputs. Using these mechanisms, we develop two ensemble defense strategies-inter-mechanism ensembles and intra-mechanism ensembles-to balance safety and helpfulness. Experiments on the MM-SafetyBench and MOSSBench datasets with LLaVA-1.5 models show that these strategies effectively improve model safety or optimize the trade-off between safety and helpfulness.
While numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential for forecasting thunderstorms hours in advance, NWP uncertainty, which increases with lead time, limits the predictability of thunderstorm occurrence. This study investigates how ensemble NWP data and machine learning (ML) can enhance the skill of thunderstorm forecasts. Using our recently introduced neural network model, SALAMA 1D, which identifies thunderstorm occurrence in operational forecasts of the convection-permitting ICON-D2-EPS model for Central Europe, we demonstrate that ensemble-averaging significantly improves forecast skill. Notably, an 11-hour ensemble forecast matches the skill level of a 5-hour deterministic forecast. To explain this improvement, we derive an analytic expression linking skill differences to correlations between ensemble members, which aligns with observed performance gains. This expression generalizes to any binary classification model that processes ensemble members individually. Additionally, we show that ML models like SALAMA 1D can identify patterns of thunderstorm occurrence which remain predictable for longer lead times compared to raw NWP output. Our findings quantitatively explain the benefits of ensemble-averaging and encourage the development of ML methods for thunderstorm forecasting and beyond.
As large language models (LLMs) become integral to code-related tasks, a central question emerges: do LLMs truly understand program execution semantics? We introduce EquiBench, a new benchmark for evaluating LLMs through equivalence checking, i.e., determining whether two programs produce identical outputs for all possible inputs. Unlike prior code generation benchmarks, this task directly tests a model's understanding of code execution semantics. EquiBench consists of 2400 program pairs across four languages and six categories. These pairs are generated through program analysis, compiler scheduling, and superoptimization, ensuring high-confidence labels, nontrivial difficulty, and full automation. The transformations span syntactic edits, structural modifications, and algorithmic changes, covering a broad spectrum of semantic variation. We evaluate 19 state-of-the-art LLMs and find that in the most challenging categories, the best accuracies are 63.8% and 76.2%, only modestly above the 50% random baseline. Further analysis reveals that models often rely on syntactic similarity rather than exhibiting robust reasoning over execution semantics, highlighting fundamental limitations.
Multimodal fake news detection typically demands complex architectures and substantial computational resources, posing deployment challenges in real-world settings. We introduce UNITE-FND, a novel framework that reframes multimodal fake news detection as a unimodal text classification task. We propose six specialized prompting strategies with Gemini 1.5 Pro, converting visual content into structured textual descriptions, and enabling efficient text-only models to preserve critical visual information. To benchmark our approach, we introduce Uni-Fakeddit-55k, a curated dataset family of 55,000 samples each, each processed through our multimodal-to-unimodal translation framework. Experimental results demonstrate that UNITE-FND achieves 92.52% accuracy in binary classification, surpassing prior multimodal models while reducing computational costs by over 10x (TinyBERT variant: 14.5M parameters vs. 250M+ in SOTA models). Additionally, we propose a comprehensive suite of five novel metrics to evaluate image-to-text conversion quality, ensuring optimal information preservation. Our results demonstrate that structured text-based representations can replace direct multimodal processing with minimal loss of accuracy, making UNITE-FND a practical and scalable alternative for resource-constrained environments.
Machine learning, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), has shown promise in medical image analysis, especially for thoracic disease detection using chest X-ray images. In this study, we evaluate various CNN architectures, including binary classification, multi-label classification, and ResNet50 models, to address challenges like dataset imbalance, variations in image quality, and hidden biases. We introduce advanced preprocessing techniques such as principal component analysis (PCA) for image compression and propose a novel class-weighted loss function to mitigate imbalance issues. Our results highlight the potential of CNNs in medical imaging but emphasize that issues like unbalanced datasets and variations in image acquisition methods must be addressed for optimal model performance.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have become essential for offensive language detection, yet their ability to handle annotation disagreement remains underexplored. Disagreement samples, which arise from subjective interpretations, pose a unique challenge due to their ambiguous nature. Understanding how LLMs process these cases, particularly their confidence levels, can offer insight into their alignment with human annotators. This study systematically evaluates the performance of multiple LLMs in detecting offensive language at varying levels of annotation agreement. We analyze binary classification accuracy, examine the relationship between model confidence and human disagreement, and explore how disagreement samples influence model decision-making during few-shot learning and instruction fine-tuning. Our findings reveal that LLMs struggle with low-agreement samples, often exhibiting overconfidence in these ambiguous cases. However, utilizing disagreement samples in training improves both detection accuracy and model alignment with human judgment. These insights provide a foundation for enhancing LLM-based offensive language detection in real-world moderation tasks.
The proliferation of misinformation, such as rumors on social media, has drawn significant attention, prompting various expressions of stance among users. Although rumor detection and stance detection are distinct tasks, they can complement each other. Rumors can be identified by cross-referencing stances in related posts, and stances are influenced by the nature of the rumor. However, existing stance detection methods often require post-level stance annotations, which are costly to obtain. We propose a novel LLM-enhanced MIL approach to jointly predict post stance and claim class labels, supervised solely by claim labels, using an undirected microblog propagation model. Our weakly supervised approach relies only on bag-level labels of claim veracity, aligning with multi-instance learning (MIL) principles. To achieve this, we transform the multi-class problem into multiple MIL-based binary classification problems. We then employ a discriminative attention layer to aggregate the outputs from these classifiers into finer-grained classes. Experiments conducted on three rumor datasets and two stance datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, highlighting strong connections between rumor veracity and expressed stances in responding posts. Our method shows promising performance in joint rumor and stance detection compared to the state-of-the-art methods.
Drought is a frequent and costly natural disaster in California, with major negative impacts on agricultural production and water resource availability, particularly groundwater. This study investigated the performance of applying different machine learning approaches to predicting the U.S. Drought Monitor classification in California. Four approaches were used: a convolutional neural network (CNN), random forest, XGBoost, and long short term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network, and compared to a baseline persistence model. We evaluated the models' performance in predicting severe drought (USDM drought category D2 or higher) using a macro F1 binary classification metric. The LSTM model emerged as the top performer, followed by XGBoost, CNN, and random forest. Further evaluation of our results at the county level suggested that the LSTM model would perform best in counties with more consistent drought patterns and where severe drought was more common, and the LSTM model would perform worse where drought scores increased rapidly. Utilizing 30 weeks of historical data, the LSTM model successfully forecasted drought scores for a 12-week period with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.33, equivalent to less than half a drought category on a scale of 0 to 5. Additionally, the LSTM achieved a macro F1 score of 0.9, indicating high accuracy in binary classification for severe drought conditions. Evaluation of different window and future horizon sizes in weeks suggested that at least 24 weeks of data would result in the best performance, with best performance for shorter horizon sizes, particularly less than eight weeks.
Binary classification is a task that involves the classification of data into one of two distinct classes. It is widely utilized in various fields. However, conventional classifiers tend to make overconfident predictions for data that belong to overlapping regions of the two class distributions or for data outside the distributions (out-of-distribution data). Therefore, conventional classifiers should not be applied in high-risk fields where classification results can have significant consequences. In order to address this issue, it is necessary to quantify uncertainty and adopt decision-making approaches that take it into account. Many methods have been proposed for this purpose; however, implementing these methods often requires performing resampling, improving the structure or performance of models, and optimizing the thresholds of classifiers. We propose a new decision-making approach using two types of hypothesis testing. This method is capable of detecting ambiguous data that belong to the overlapping regions of two class distributions, as well as out-of-distribution data that are not included in the training data distribution. In addition, we quantify uncertainty using the empirical distribution of feature values derived from the training data obtained through the trained model. The classification threshold is determined by the $\alpha$-quantile and ($1-\alpha$)-quantile, where the significance level $\alpha$ is set according to each specific situation.