Variational inference (VI) has become the method of choice for fitting many modern probabilistic models. However, practitioners are faced with a fragmented literature that offers a bewildering array of algorithmic options. First, the variational family. Second, the granularity of the updates e.g. whether the updates are local to each data point and employ message passing or global. Third, the method of optimization (bespoke or blackbox, closed-form or stochastic updates, etc.). This paper presents a new framework, termed Partitioned Variational Inference (PVI), that explicitly acknowledges these algorithmic dimensions of VI, unifies disparate literature, and provides guidance on usage. Crucially, the proposed PVI framework allows us to identify new ways of performing VI that are ideally suited to challenging learning scenarios including federated learning (where distributed computing is leveraged to process non-centralized data) and continual learning (where new data and tasks arrive over time and must be accommodated quickly). We showcase these new capabilities by developing communication-efficient federated training of Bayesian neural networks and continual learning for Gaussian process models with private pseudo-points. The new methods significantly outperform the state-of-the-art, whilst being almost as straightforward to implement as standard VI.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) provide state-of-the-art results for a multitude of applications, but the approaches using DNNs for multimodal audiovisual applications do not consider predictive uncertainty associated with individual modalities. Bayesian deep learning methods provide principled confidence and quantify predictive uncertainty. Our contribution in this work is to propose an uncertainty aware multimodal Bayesian fusion framework for activity recognition. We demonstrate a novel approach that combines deterministic and variational layers to scale Bayesian DNNs to deeper architectures. Our experiments using in- and out-of-distribution samples selected from a subset of Moments-in-Time (MiT) dataset show a more reliable confidence measure as compared to the non-Bayesian baseline and the Monte Carlo dropout (MC dropout) approximate Bayesian inference. We also demonstrate the uncertainty estimates obtained from the proposed framework can identify out-of-distribution data on the UCF101 and MiT datasets. In the multimodal setting, the proposed framework improved precision-recall AUC by 10.2% on the subset of MiT dataset as compared to non-Bayesian baseline.
Several algorithms for solving constraint satisfaction problems are based on survey propagation, a variational inference scheme used to obtain approximate marginal probability estimates for variable assignments. These marginals correspond to how frequently each variable is set to true among satisfying assignments, and are used to inform branching decisions during search; however, marginal estimates obtained via survey propagation are approximate and can be self-contradictory. We introduce a more general branching strategy based on streamlining constraints, which sidestep hard assignments to variables. We show that streamlined solvers consistently outperform decimation-based solvers on random k-SAT instances for several problem sizes, shrinking the gap between empirical performance and theoretical limits of satisfiability by 16.3% on average for k=3,4,5,6.
State-space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modelling time-series data. Consequently, SSMs are ubiquitously applied in areas such as engineering, econometrics and epidemiology. In this paper we provide a fast approach for approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs using the tools of deep learning and variational inference.
As machine learning systems get widely adopted for high-stake decisions, quantifying uncertainty over predictions becomes crucial. While modern neural networks are making remarkable gains in terms of predictive accuracy, characterizing uncertainty over the parameters of these models is challenging because of the high dimensionality and complex correlations of the network parameter space. This paper introduces a novel variational inference framework for Bayesian neural networks that (1) encodes complex distributions in high-dimensional parameter space with representations in a low-dimensional latent space, and (2) performs inference efficiently on the low-dimensional representations. Across a large array of synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our method improves uncertainty characterization and model generalization when compared with methods that work directly in the parameter space.
With the recently rapid development in deep learning, deep neural networks have been widely adopted in many real-life applications. However, deep neural networks are also known to have very little control over its uncertainty for unseen examples, which potentially causes very harmful and annoying consequences in practical scenarios. In this paper, we are particularly interested in designing a higher-order uncertainty metric for deep neural networks and investigate its effectiveness under the out-of-distribution detection task proposed by~\cite{hendrycks2016baseline}. Our method first assumes there exists an underlying higher-order distribution $\mathbb{P}(z)$, which controls label-wise categorical distribution $\mathbb{P}(y)$ over classes on the K-dimension simplex, and then approximate such higher-order distribution via parameterized posterior function $p_{\theta}(z|x)$ under variational inference framework, finally we use the entropy of learned posterior distribution $p_{\theta}(z|x)$ as uncertainty measure to detect out-of-distribution examples. Further, we propose an auxiliary objective function to discriminate against synthesized adversarial examples to further increase the robustness of the proposed uncertainty measure. Through comprehensive experiments on various datasets, our proposed framework is demonstrated to consistently outperform competing algorithms.
Approximate inference algorithm is one of the fundamental research fields in machine learning. The two dominant theoretical inference frameworks in machine learning are variational inference (VI) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, because of the fundamental limitation in the theory, it is very challenging to improve existing VI and MCMC methods on both the computational scalability and statistical efficiency. To overcome this obstacle, we propose a new theoretical inference framework called ergodic Inference based on the fundamental property of ergodic transformations. The key contribution of this work is to establish the theoretical foundation of ergodic inference for the development of practical algorithms in future work.
We present the Mixed Likelihood Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM), capable of modeling data with attributes of different types. The standard formulation of GP-LVM assumes that each observation is drawn from a Gaussian distribution, which makes the model unsuited for data with e.g. categorical or nominal attributes. Our model, for which we use a sampling based variational inference, instead assumes a separate likelihood for each observed dimension. This formulation results in more meaningful latent representations, and give better predictive performance for real world data with dimensions of different types.
Dependency grammar induction is the task of learning dependency syntax without annotated training data. Traditional graph-based models with global inference achieve state-of-the-art results on this task but they require $O(n^3)$ run time. Transition-based models enable faster inference with $O(n)$ time complexity, but their performance still lags behind. In this work, we propose a neural transition-based parser for dependency grammar induction, whose inference procedure utilizes rich neural features with $O(n)$ time complexity. We train the parser with an integration of variational inference, posterior regularization and variance reduction techniques. The resulting framework outperforms previous unsupervised transition-based dependency parsers and achieves performance comparable to graph-based models, both on the English Penn Treebank and on the Universal Dependency Treebank. In an empirical comparison, we show that our approach substantially increases parsing speed over graph-based models.
We introduce the variational filtering EM algorithm, a simple, general-purpose method for performing variational inference in dynamical latent variable models using information from only past and present variables, i.e. filtering. The algorithm is derived from the variational objective in the filtering setting and consists of an optimization procedure at each time step. By performing each inference optimization procedure with an iterative amortized inference model, we obtain a computationally efficient implementation of the algorithm, which we call amortized variational filtering. We present experiments demonstrating that this general-purpose method improves performance across several deep dynamical latent variable models.
Planning has been very successful for control tasks with known environment dynamics. To leverage planning in unknown environments, the agent needs to learn the dynamics from interactions with the world. However, learning dynamics models that are accurate enough for planning has been a long-standing challenge, especially in image-based domains. We propose the Deep Planning Network (PlaNet), a purely model-based agent that learns the environment dynamics from images and chooses actions through fast online planning in latent space. To achieve high performance, the dynamics model must accurately predict the rewards ahead for multiple time steps. We approach this using a latent dynamics model with both deterministic and stochastic transition components. Moreover, we propose a multi-step variational inference objective that we name latent overshooting. Using only pixel observations, our agent solves continuous control tasks with contact dynamics, partial observability, and sparse rewards, which exceed the difficulty of tasks that were previously solved by planning with learned models. PlaNet uses substantially fewer episodes and reaches final performance close to and sometimes higher than strong model-free algorithms.
Uncertainty estimation in large deep-learning models is a computationally challenging task, where it is difficult to form even a Gaussian approximation to the posterior distribution. In such situations, existing methods usually resort to a diagonal approximation of the covariance matrix despite, the fact that these matrices are known to result in poor uncertainty estimates. To address this issue, we propose a new stochastic, low-rank, approximate natural-gradient (SLANG) method for variational inference in large, deep models. Our method estimates a "diagonal plus low-rank" structure based solely on back-propagated gradients of the network log-likelihood. This requires strictly less gradient computations than methods that compute the gradient of the whole variational objective. Empirical evaluations on standard benchmarks confirm that SLANG enables faster and more accurate estimation of uncertainty than mean-field methods, and performs comparably to state-of-the-art methods.
Learning from multiple sources of information is an important problem in machine-learning research. The key challenges are learning representations and formulating inference methods that take into account the complementarity and redundancy of various information sources. In this paper we formulate a variational autoencoder based multi-source learning framework in which each encoder is conditioned on a different information source. This allows us to relate the sources via the shared latent variables by computing divergence measures between individual source's posterior approximations. We explore a variety of options to learn these encoders and to integrate the beliefs they compute into a consistent posterior approximation. We visualise learned beliefs on a toy dataset and evaluate our methods for learning shared representations and structured output prediction, showing trade-offs of learning separate encoders for each information source. Furthermore, we demonstrate how conflict detection and redundancy can increase robustness of inference in a multi-source setting.
Recent deep learning models have shown improving results to natural language generation (NLG) irrespective of providing sufficient annotated data. However, a modest training data may harm such models performance. Thus, how to build a generator that can utilize as much of knowledge from a low-resource setting data is a crucial issue in NLG. This paper presents a variational neural-based generation model to tackle the NLG problem of having limited labeled dataset, in which we integrate a variational inference into an encoder-decoder generator and introduce a novel auxiliary autoencoding with an effective training procedure. Experiments showed that the proposed methods not only outperform the previous models when having sufficient training dataset but also show strong ability to work acceptably well when the training data is scarce.
The benefits of automating design cycles for Bayesian inference-based algorithms are becoming increasingly recognized by the machine learning community. As a result, interest in probabilistic programming frameworks has much increased over the past few years. This paper explores a specific probabilistic programming paradigm, namely message passing in Forney-style factor graphs (FFGs), in the context of automated design of efficient Bayesian signal processing algorithms. To this end, we developed "ForneyLab" (https://github.com/biaslab/ForneyLab.jl) as a Julia toolbox for message passing-based inference in FFGs. We show by example how ForneyLab enables automatic derivation of Bayesian signal processing algorithms, including algorithms for parameter estimation and model comparison. Crucially, due to the modular makeup of the FFG framework, both the model specification and inference methods are readily extensible in ForneyLab. In order to test this framework, we compared variational message passing as implemented by ForneyLab with automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and Monte Carlo methods as implemented by state-of-the-art tools "Edward" and "Stan". In terms of performance, extensibility and stability issues, ForneyLab appears to enjoy an edge relative to its competitors for automated inference in state-space models.
Uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks is essential for designing reliable and robust AI systems. Applications such as video surveillance for identifying suspicious activities are designed with deep neural networks (DNNs), but DNNs do not provide uncertainty estimates. Capturing reliable uncertainty estimates in safety and security critical applications will help to establish trust in the AI system. Our contribution is to apply Bayesian deep learning framework to visual activity recognition application and quantify model uncertainty along with principled confidence. We utilize the stochastic variational inference technique while training the Bayesian DNNs to infer the approximate posterior distribution around model parameters and perform Monte Carlo sampling on the posterior of model parameters to obtain the predictive distribution. We show that the Bayesian inference applied to DNNs provide reliable confidence measures for visual activity recognition task as compared to conventional DNNs. We also show that our method improves the visual activity recognition precision-recall AUC by 6.2% compared to non-Bayesian baseline. We evaluate our models on Moments-In-Time (MiT) activity recognition dataset by selecting a subset of in- and out-of-distribution video samples.
Particle-based variational inference offers a flexible way of approximating complex posterior distributions with a set of particles. In this paper we introduce a new particle-based variational inference method based on the theory of semi-discrete optimal transport. Instead of minimizing the KL divergence between the posterior and the variational approximation, we minimize a semi-discrete optimal transport divergence. The solution of the resulting optimal transport problem provides both a particle approximation and a set of optimal transportation densities that map each particle to a segment of the posterior distribution. We approximate these transportation densities by minimizing the KL divergence between a truncated distribution and the optimal transport solution. The resulting algorithm can be interpreted as a form of ensemble variational inference where each particle is associated with a local variational approximation.
In this paper, we introduce Deep Probabilistic Ensembles (DPEs), a scalable technique that uses a regularized ensemble to approximate a deep Bayesian Neural Network (BNN). We do so by incorporating a KL divergence penalty term into the training objective of an ensemble, derived from the evidence lower bound used in variational inference. We evaluate the uncertainty estimates obtained from our models for active learning on visual classification. Our approach steadily improves upon active learning baselines as the annotation budget is increased.
Extracting common narratives from multi-author dynamic text corpora requires complex models, such as the Dynamic Author Persona (DAP) topic model. However, such models are complex and can struggle to scale to large corpora, often because of challenging non-conjugate terms. To overcome such challenges, in this paper we adapt new ideas in approximate inference to the DAP model, resulting in the DAP Performed Exceedingly Rapidly (DAPPER) topic model. Specifically, we develop Conjugate-Computation Variational Inference (CVI) based variational Expectation-Maximization (EM) for learning the model, yielding fast, closed form updates for each document, replacing iterative optimization in earlier work. Our results show significant improvements in model fit and training time without needing to compromise the model's temporal structure or the application of Regularized Variation Inference (RVI). We demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of the DAPPER model by extracting health journeys from the CaringBridge corpus --- a collection of 9 million journals written by 200,000 authors during health crises.
Latent variable models have been widely applied for the analysis of time series resulting from experimental neuroscience techniques. In these datasets, observations are relatively smooth and possibly nonlinear. We present Variational Inference for Nonlinear Dynamics (VIND), a variational inference framework that is able to uncover nonlinear, smooth latent dynamics from sequential data. The framework is a direct extension of PfLDS; including a structured approximate posterior describing spatially-dependent linear dynamics, as well as an algorithm that relies on the fixed-point iteration method to achieve convergence. We apply VIND to electrophysiology, single-cell voltage and widefield imaging datasets with state-of-the-art results in reconstruction error. In single-cell voltage data, VIND finds a 5D latent space, with variables akin to those of Hodgkin-Huxley-like models. VIND's learned dynamics are further quantified by predicting future neural activity. VIND excels in this task, in some cases substantially outperforming current methods.