The main objective of Prognostics and Health Management is to estimate the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL), namely, the time that a system or a piece of equipment is still in working order before starting to function incorrectly. In recent years, numerous machine learning algorithms have been proposed for RUL estimation, mainly focusing on providing more accurate RUL predictions. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in the problem, such as inherent randomness of systems failure, lack of knowledge regarding their future states, and inaccuracy of the underlying predictive models, making it infeasible to predict the RULs precisely. Hence, it is of utmost importance to quantify the uncertainty alongside the RUL predictions. In this work, we investigate the conformal prediction (CP) framework that represents uncertainty by predicting sets of possible values for the target variable (intervals in the case of RUL) instead of making point predictions. Under very mild technical assumptions, CP formally guarantees that the actual value (true RUL) is covered by the predicted set with a degree of certainty that can be prespecified. We study three CP algorithms to conformalize any single-point RUL predictor and turn it into a valid interval predictor. Finally, we conformalize two single-point RUL predictors, deep convolutional neural networks and gradient boosting, and illustrate their performance on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) data sets.
Sequential tests and their implied confidence sequences, which are valid at arbitrary stopping times, promise flexible statistical inference and on-the-fly decision making. However, strong guarantees are limited to parametric sequential tests that under-cover in practice or concentration-bound-based sequences that over-cover and have suboptimal rejection times. In this work, we consider classic delayed-start normal-mixture sequential probability ratio tests, and we provide the first asymptotic type-I-error and expected-rejection-time guarantees under general non-parametric data generating processes, where the asymptotics are indexed by the test's burn-in time. The type-I-error results primarily leverage a martingale strong invariance principle and establish that these tests (and their implied confidence sequences) have type-I error rates asymptotically equivalent to the desired (possibly varying) $\alpha$-level. The expected-rejection-time results primarily leverage an identity inspired by It\^o's lemma and imply that, in certain asymptotic regimes, the expected rejection time is asymptotically equivalent to the minimum possible among $\alpha$-level tests. We show how to apply our results to sequential inference on parameters defined by estimating equations, such as average treatment effects. Together, our results establish these (ostensibly parametric) tests as general-purpose, non-parametric, and near-optimal. We illustrate this via numerical simulations and a real-data application to A/B testing at Netflix.
We propose an extrinsic Bayesian optimization (eBO) framework for general optimization problems on manifolds. Bayesian optimization algorithms build a surrogate of the objective function by employing Gaussian processes and quantify the uncertainty in that surrogate by deriving an acquisition function. This acquisition function represents the probability of improvement based on the kernel of the Gaussian process, which guides the search in the optimization process. The critical challenge for designing Bayesian optimization algorithms on manifolds lies in the difficulty of constructing valid covariance kernels for Gaussian processes on general manifolds. Our approach is to employ extrinsic Gaussian processes by first embedding the manifold onto some higher dimensional Euclidean space via equivariant embeddings and then constructing a valid covariance kernel on the image manifold after the embedding. This leads to efficient and scalable algorithms for optimization over complex manifolds. Simulation study and real data analysis are carried out to demonstrate the utilities of our eBO framework by applying the eBO to various optimization problems over manifolds such as the sphere, the Grassmannian, and the manifold of positive definite matrices.
Ill-posed linear inverse problems appear frequently in various signal processing applications. It can be very useful to have theoretical characterizations that quantify the level of ill-posedness for a given inverse problem and the degree of ambiguity that may exist about its solution. Traditional measures of ill-posedness, such as the condition number of a matrix, provide characterizations that are global in nature. While such characterizations can be powerful, they can also fail to provide full insight into situations where certain entries of the solution vector are more or less ambiguous than others. In this work, we derive novel theoretical lower- and upper-bounds that apply to individual entries of the solution vector, and are valid for all potential solution vectors that are nearly data-consistent. These bounds are agnostic to the noise statistics and the specific method used to solve the inverse problem, and are also shown to be tight. In addition, our results also lead us to introduce an entrywise version of the traditional condition number, which provides a substantially more nuanced characterization of scenarios where certain elements of the solution vector are less sensitive to perturbations than others. Our results are illustrated in an application to magnetic resonance imaging reconstruction, and we include discussions of practical computation methods for large-scale inverse problems, connections between our new theory and the traditional Cram\'{e}r-Rao bound under statistical modeling assumptions, and potential extensions to cases involving constraints beyond just data-consistency.
Ranking intuitionistic fuzzy sets with distance based ranking methods requires to calculate the distance between intuitionistic fuzzy set and a reference point which is known to have either maximum (positive ideal solution) or minimum (negative ideal solution) value. These group of approaches assume that as the distance of an intuitionistic fuzzy set to the reference point is decreases, the similarity of intuitionistic fuzzy set with that point increases. This is a misconception because an intuitionistic fuzzy set which has the shortest distance to positive ideal solution does not have to be the furthest from negative ideal solution for all circumstances when the distance function is nonlinear. This paper gives a mathematical proof of why this assumption is not valid for any of the non-linear distance functions and suggests a hypervolume based ranking approach as an alternative to distance based ranking. In addition, the suggested ranking approach is extended as a new multicriteria decision making method, HyperVolume based ASsessment (HVAS). HVAS is applied for multicriteria assessment of Turkey's energy alternatives. Results are compared with three well known distance based multicriteria decision making methods (TOPSIS, VIKOR, and CODAS).
Inspired by foundational studies in classical and quantum physics, and by information retrieval studies in quantum information theory, we prove that the notions of 'energy' and 'entropy' can be consistently introduced in human language and, more generally, in human culture. More explicitly, if energy is attributed to words according to their frequency of appearance in a text, then the ensuing energy levels are distributed non-classically, namely, they obey Bose-Einstein, rather than Maxwell-Boltzmann, statistics, as a consequence of the genuinely 'quantum indistinguishability' of the words that appear in the text. Secondly, the 'quantum entanglement' due to the way meaning is carried by a text reduces the (von Neumann) entropy of the words that appear in the text, a behaviour which cannot be explained within classical (thermodynamic or information) entropy. We claim here that this 'quantum-type behaviour is valid in general in human language', namely, any text is conceptually more concrete than the words composing it, which entails that the entropy of the overall text decreases. In addition, we provide examples taken from cognition, where quantization of energy appears in categorical perception, and from culture, where entities collaborate, thus 'entangle', to decrease overall entropy. We use these findings to propose the development of a new 'non-classical thermodynamic theory' for human cognition, which also covers broad parts of human culture and its artefacts and bridges concepts with quantum physics entities.
Biometrics is the science of identifying an individual based on their intrinsic anatomical or behavioural characteristics, such as fingerprints, face, iris, gait, and voice. Iris recognition is one of the most successful methods because it exploits the rich texture of the human iris, which is unique even for twins and does not degrade with age. Modern approaches to iris recognition utilize deep learning to segment the valid portion of the iris from the rest of the eye, so it can then be encoded, stored and compared. This paper aims to improve the accuracy of iris semantic segmentation systems by introducing a novel data augmentation technique. Our method can transform an iris image with a certain dilation level into any desired dilation level, thus augmenting the variability and number of training examples from a small dataset. The proposed method is fast and does not require training. The results indicate that our data augmentation method can improve segmentation accuracy up to 15% for images with high pupil dilation, which creates a more reliable iris recognition pipeline, even under extreme dilation.
In 2019 Kerdels and Peters proposed a grid cell model (GCM) based on a Differential Growing Neural Gas (DGNG) network architecture as a computationally efficient way to model an Autoassociative Memory Cell (AMC) \cite{Kerdels_Peters_2019}. An important feature of the DGNG architecture with respect to possible applications in the field of computational neuroscience is its \textit{capacity} refering to its capability to process and uniquely distinguish input signals and therefore obtain a valid representation of the input space. This study evaluates the capacity of a two layered DGNG grid cell model on the Fashion-MNIST dataset. The focus on the study lies on the variation of layer sizes to improve the understanding of capacity properties in relation to network parameters as well as its scaling properties. Additionally, parameter discussions and a plausability check with a pixel/segment variation method are provided. It is concluded, that the DGNG model is able to obtain a meaningful and plausible representation of the input space and to cope with the complexity of the Fashion-MNIST dataset even at moderate layer sizes.
A large number of annotated video-caption pairs are required for training video captioning models, resulting in high annotation costs. Active learning can be instrumental in reducing these annotation requirements. However, active learning for video captioning is challenging because multiple semantically similar captions are valid for a video, resulting in high entropy outputs even for less-informative samples. Moreover, video captioning algorithms are multimodal in nature with a visual encoder and language decoder. Further, the sequential and combinatorial nature of the output makes the problem even more challenging. In this paper, we introduce MAViC which leverages our proposed Multimodal Semantics Aware Sequential Entropy (M-SASE) based acquisition function to address the challenges of active learning approaches for video captioning. Our approach integrates semantic similarity and uncertainty of both visual and language dimensions in the acquisition function. Our detailed experiments empirically demonstrate the efficacy of M-SASE for active learning for video captioning and improve on the baselines by a large margin.
This paper provides a specification test for semiparametric models with nonparametrically generated regressors. Such variables are not observed by the researcher but are nonparametrically identified and estimable. Applications of the test include models with endogenous regressors identified by control functions, semiparametric sample selection models, or binary games with incomplete information. The statistic is built from the residuals of the semiparametric model. A novel wild bootstrap procedure is shown to provide valid critical values. We consider nonparametric estimators with an automatic bias correction that makes the test implementable without undersmoothing. In simulations the test exhibits good small sample performances, and an application to women's labor force participation decisions shows its implementation in a real data context.
Retrosynthesis is the task of breaking down a chemical compound recursively step-by-step into molecular precursors until a set of commercially available molecules is found. Consequently, the goal is to provide a valid synthesis route for a molecule. As more single-step models develop, we see increasing accuracy in the prediction of molecular disconnections, potentially improving the creation of synthetic paths. Multi-step approaches repeatedly apply the chemical information stored in single-step retrosynthesis models. However, this connection is not reflected in contemporary research, fixing either the single-step model or the multi-step algorithm in the process. In this work, we establish a bridge between both tasks by benchmarking the performance and transfer of different single-step retrosynthesis models to the multi-step domain by leveraging two common search algorithms, Monte Carlo Tree Search and Retro*. We show that models designed for single-step retrosynthesis, when extended to multi-step, can have a tremendous impact on the route finding capabilities of current multi-step methods, improving performance by up to +30% compared to the most widely used model. Furthermore, we observe no clear link between contemporary single-step and multi-step evaluation metrics, showing that single-step models need to be developed and tested for the multi-step domain and not as an isolated task to find synthesis routes for molecules of interest.
Testing Deep Learning (DL) based systems inherently requires large and representative test sets to evaluate whether DL systems generalise beyond their training datasets. Diverse Test Input Generators (TIGs) have been proposed to produce artificial inputs that expose issues of the DL systems by triggering misbehaviours. Unfortunately, such generated inputs may be invalid, i.e., not recognisable as part of the input domain, thus providing an unreliable quality assessment. Automated validators can ease the burden of manually checking the validity of inputs for human testers, although input validity is a concept difficult to formalise and, thus, automate. In this paper, we investigate to what extent TIGs can generate valid inputs, according to both automated and human validators. We conduct a large empirical study, involving 2 different automated validators, 220 human assessors, 5 different TIGs and 3 classification tasks. Our results show that 84% artificially generated inputs are valid, according to automated validators, but their expected label is not always preserved. Automated validators reach a good consensus with humans (78% accuracy), but still have limitations when dealing with feature-rich datasets.
This work studies the standoff tracking problem to drive an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to slide on a desired circle over a moving target at a constant height. We propose a novel Lyapunov guidance vector (LGV) field with tunable convergence rates for the UAV's trajectory planning and a deep neural network (DNN)-based model predictive control (MPC) scheme to track the reference trajectory. Then, we show how to collect samples for training the DNN offline and design an integral module (IM) to refine the tracking performance of our DNN-based MPC. Moreover, the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation with an FPGA@200MHz demonstrates that our method is a valid alternative to embedded implementations of MPC for addressing complex systems and applications which is impossible for directly solving the MPC optimization problems.
We consider the problem of continually releasing an estimate of the population mean of a stream of samples that is user-level differentially private (DP). At each time instant, a user contributes a sample, and the users can arrive in arbitrary order. Until now these requirements of continual release and user-level privacy were considered in isolation. But, in practice, both these requirements come together as the users often contribute data repeatedly and multiple queries are made. We provide an algorithm that outputs a mean estimate at every time instant $t$ such that the overall release is user-level $\varepsilon$-DP and has the following error guarantee: Denoting by $M_t$ the maximum number of samples contributed by a user, as long as $\tilde{\Omega}(1/\varepsilon)$ users have $M_t/2$ samples each, the error at time $t$ is $\tilde{O}(1/\sqrt{t}+\sqrt{M}_t/t\varepsilon)$. This is a universal error guarantee which is valid for all arrival patterns of the users. Furthermore, it (almost) matches the existing lower bounds for the single-release setting at all time instants when users have contributed equal number of samples.
The study aims the development of a wearable device to combat the onslaught of covid-19. Likewise, to enhance the regular face shield available in the market. Furthermore, to raise awareness of the health and safety protocols initiated by the government and its affiliates in the enforcement of social distancing with the integration of computer vision algorithms. The wearable device was composed of various hardware and software components such as a transparent polycarbonate face shield, microprocessor, sensors, camera, thin-film transistor on-screen display, jumper wires, power bank, and python programming language. The algorithm incorporated in the study was object detection under computer vision machine learning. The front camera with OpenCV technology determines the distance of a person in front of the user. Utilizing TensorFlow, the target object identifies and detects the image or live feed to get its bounding boxes. The focal length lens requires the determination of the distance from the camera to the target object. To get the focal length, multiply the pixel width by the known distance and divide it by the known width (Rosebrock, 2020). The deployment of unit testing ensures that the parameters are valid in terms of design and specifications.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have been the subject of active research, significantly advancing the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP). From BERT to BLOOM, LLMs have surpassed state-of-the-art results in various natural language tasks such as question answering, summarization, and text generation. Many ongoing efforts focus on understanding LLMs' capabilities, including their knowledge of the world, syntax, and semantics. However, extending the textual prowess of LLMs to symbolic reasoning has been slow and predominantly focused on tackling problems related to the mathematical field. In this paper, we explore the use of LLMs for automated planning - a branch of AI concerned with the realization of action sequences (plans) to achieve a goal, typically executed by intelligent agents, autonomous robots, and unmanned vehicles. We introduce Plansformer; an LLM fine-tuned on planning problems and capable of generating plans with favorable behavior in terms of correctness and length with reduced knowledge-engineering efforts. We also demonstrate the adaptability of Plansformer in solving different planning domains with varying complexities, owing to the transfer learning abilities of LLMs. For one configuration of Plansformer, we achieve ~97% valid plans, out of which ~95% are optimal for Towers of Hanoi - a puzzle-solving domain.
A key missing capacity of current language models (LMs) is grounding to real-world environments. Most existing work for grounded language understanding uses LMs to directly generate plans that can be executed in the environment to achieve the desired effects. It thereby casts the burden of ensuring grammaticality, faithfulness, and controllability all on the LMs. We propose Pangu, a generic framework for grounded language understanding that capitalizes on the discriminative ability of LMs instead of their generative ability. Pangu consists of a symbolic agent and a neural LM working in a concerted fashion: The agent explores the environment to incrementally construct valid plans, and the LM evaluates the plausibility of the candidate plans to guide the search process. A case study on the challenging problem of knowledge base question answering (KBQA), which features a massive environment, demonstrates the remarkable effectiveness and flexibility of Pangu: A BERT-base LM is sufficient for setting a new record on standard KBQA datasets, and larger LMs further bring substantial gains. Pangu also enables, for the first time, effective few-shot in-context learning for KBQA with large LMs such as Codex.
Prompting large language models has enabled significant recent progress in multi-step reasoning over text. However, when applied to text generation from semi-structured data (e.g., graphs or tables), these methods typically suffer from low semantic coverage, hallucination, and logical inconsistency. We propose MURMUR, a neuro-symbolic modular approach to text generation from semi-structured data with multi-step reasoning. MURMUR is a best-first search method that generates reasoning paths using: (1) neural and symbolic modules with specific linguistic and logical skills, (2) a grammar whose production rules define valid compositions of modules, and (3) value functions that assess the quality of each reasoning step. We conduct experiments on two diverse data-to-text generation tasks like WebNLG and LogicNLG. These tasks differ in their data representations (graphs and tables) and span multiple linguistic and logical skills. MURMUR obtains significant improvements over recent few-shot baselines like direct prompting and chain-of-thought prompting, while also achieving comparable performance to fine-tuned GPT-2 on out-of-domain data. Moreover, human evaluation shows that MURMUR generates highly faithful and correct reasoning paths that lead to 26% more logically consistent summaries on LogicNLG, compared to direct prompting.
We tackle the problem of computing counterfactual explanations -- minimal changes to the features that flip an undesirable model prediction. We propose a solution to this question for linear Support Vector Machine (SVMs) models. Moreover, we introduce a way to account for weighted actions that allow for more changes in certain features than others. In particular, we show how to find counterfactual explanations with the purpose of increasing model interpretability. These explanations are valid, change only actionable features, are close to the data distribution, sparse, and take into account correlations between features. We cast this as a mixed integer programming optimization problem. Additionally, we introduce two novel scale-invariant cost functions for assessing the quality of counterfactual explanations and use them to evaluate the quality of our approach with a real medical dataset. Finally, we build a support vector machine model to predict whether law students will pass the Bar exam using protected features, and used our algorithms to uncover the inherent biases of the SVM.
Independence testing is a classical statistical problem that has been extensively studied in the batch setting when one fixes the sample size before collecting data. However, practitioners often prefer procedures that adapt to the complexity of a problem at hand instead of setting sample size in advance. Ideally, such procedures should (a) stop earlier on easy tasks (and later on harder tasks), hence making better use of available resources, and (b) continuously monitor the data and efficiently incorporate statistical evidence after collecting new data, while controlling the false alarm rate. Classical batch tests are not tailored for streaming data: valid inference after data peeking requires correcting for multiple testing which results in low power. Following the principle of testing by betting, we design sequential kernelized independence tests that overcome such shortcomings. We exemplify our broad framework using bets inspired by kernelized dependence measures, e.g., the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion. Our test is also valid under non-i.i.d., time-varying settings. We demonstrate the power of our approaches on both simulated and real data.